2012/13 Predictions: Conference Championships

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
In the 49ers win over the Green Bay Packers, quarterback Colin Kaepernick set an NFL record with 181 rushing yards (and two touchdowns) as the 49ers amassed over 500 yards of offense. Kaepernick was able to shake off an early pick-six by Sam Shields, and had perhaps had the best postseason debut by a quarterback in NFL history, adding 263 yards and two touchdowns through the air to his tremendous rushing performance.
The defense for the 49ers wasn't always spectacular, but the team did a great job of limiting Aaron Rodgers' opportunities for big plays. Justin Smith was productive in the game, though there were still times when the triceps injury was evident.
Atlanta was able to get the monkey off their back, though it didn't come easy for the Falcons, who blew a 27-7 fourth quarter lead only to come back with a game-winning field goal drive in the game's final 31 seconds. Matt Ryan made two big completions, which led to Matt Bryant's game winner, including a 19-yarder to Tony Gonzalez with just 14 seconds remaining to get them in range.
Perhaps the two most impressive aspects of the Falcons win were the fact that they were able to rack up 167 rushing yards against a strong Seattle run defense, and also limited the Seahawks running game to 123 yards on 28 carries. Atlanta had been vulnerable against the run game at times this season, and also struggled to get a consistent running game going. Neither were evident in the victory, as Jacquizz Rodgers set the tone early with a 45-yard run that saw 'Quizz' run over Seattle's All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman.
If the Falcons are able to contain the running game of San Francisco, there stands a very good chance Atlanta reaches the Super Bowl. I'm just not sure their defensive line (which includes a banged-up John Abraham) can stand up to the 49ers power running attack.
Prediction: 49ers 31, Falcons 20.

2012/13 NFL Predictions: Divisional Round

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos
The Ravens were able to get a win in what was the final home game of linebacker Ray Lewis' career. Lewis has been the vocal and emotional leader of the Ravens since being drafted out of Miami (FL) in 1996, and his presence will be missed, not only on the field, but also in the locker room. Baltimore's passing game produced some big plays against the Colts, and will need to continue to do so in this game.
After their first-round bye, Denver should be well-rested and prepared, as the Broncos were the hottest team in the league, winning their last eleven games of the regular season. Peyton Manning hasn't had a lot of success in cold-weather playoff games, so the Broncos could use a heavy dose of Knowshon Moreno against a surprisingly pedestrian Ravens run defense.
The Broncos pass-rush, headed by Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, will keep Flacco under pressure for a lot of the game. The Ravens will also be going up against the #2 total defense and #4 scoring defense in the league this past season, which is no small task. To make matters worse, they're playing a rested team that plays nearly a mile-above sea level, so the Broncos will likely run a lot of no-huddle to keep the Ravens from substituting. Barring a Manning letdown, the Broncos move on the AFC Championship game.
Prediction: Broncos 27, Ravens 17.

2012 NFL Predictions: Week Fifteen

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
The surprising 9-4 Colts still have a shot at the AFC South Division crown as they head into this Sunday's game against the 11-2 Texans. Andrew Luck led another comeback victory last week against the Titans, but the rookie quarterback still needs to make better decisions with the football, as his 18 interceptions is tied for the league-worst.
Injuries have hurt the Texans defense, which has bordered on pedestrian for the past month. Despite a disappointing loss to the Patriots this past week, Houston controls its own destiny for the top seed in the AFC, and will likely have no problem getting themselves motivated for a matchup with a likely playoff team.
Despite the strong running game, it will likely be Matt Schaub who will be the difference-maker against a Colts secondary that has surrendered 22 passing touchdowns against just 8 interceptions.
Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 17.

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
On an eight game winning streak, the Broncos (along with the Patriots) are the hottest team in the NFL. Even with starting running back Willis McGahee out due to injury, the team has still been able to run the ball effectively, as former starter and first-round pick Knowshon Moreno has run for a combined 273 yards the past three weeks.
Baltimore fired offensive coordinator Cam Cameron this week, as the team struggled to develop an identity on offense. I've been critical of Cameron's play-calling for the past two years, as he began to utilize Ray Rice and the running game less over that span. Expect Baltimore to use less shotgun formation and make better use of Vonta Leach, who is one of the elite blocking backs in the NFL.
Peyton Manning has been playing MVP-caliber football this season, and with the defense also playing well, Denver takes this one.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Ravens 20.

2012 NFL Predictions: Week Twelve

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
The Bears will be getting Jay Cutler back from a concussion, and will be eager to get the sour taste from a 32-7 loss out of their mouth. For Minnesota, wide receiver Percy Harvin will miss the game, putting more pressure on Adrian Peterson to have a big day.
Prediction: Bears 23, Vikings 14.

Oakland Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Raiders have played woefully bad football the past two weeks, losing by a combined 56 points in games against the Ravens and Saints. Cincinnati has some tough games ahead, and should get a big game out of quarterback Andy Dalton against a bad Oakland pass defense.
Prediction: Bengals 31, Raiders 17.

NFC West Preview: Niners should hold off rising Seahawks in 2012

San Francisco 49ers
2011 Recap: The 49ers got off to a quick start in 2011, wrapping up the division in week thirteen on their way to a 13-3 record, making it all the way to the NFC Championship game. Oft-maligned quarterback Alex Smith did a great job of game-managing for first year coach Jim Harbaugh, and Vernon Davis staked his claim as one of the better tight ends in the league. The engine that made San Francisco run was their defense, which was #1 against the run, #2 in scoring defense and #4 in total yards allowed. The pass rush was also very strong, as DE Justin Smith and OLB Aldon Smith combined for 21.5 of the teams' 42 sacks. Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman are one of the best linebacking corps in the league.
Key Additions
The front office was aggressive in trying to add play-makers to an offense that largely lacked explosiveness. With Frank Gore's injury history, the team added bruising back Brandon Jacobs through free agency, as well as burner LaMichael James in the second round to help in the passing and return game. A.J. Jenkins was a bit of a reach in the first round, but adds a big-play threat when the team spreads the field. Mario Manningham came over from the Giants and projects as a very solid third receiver. Randy Moss is not the long-term answer at receiver for the 49ers, but is a potential low-risk, high-reward player with a reasonable contract.
Key Losses
WR Josh Morgan (Redskins)
G Chilo Rachal (Bears)
G Adam Snyder (Cardinals)
2012 Outlook
San Francisco is returning just about every defensive player from last season's team, and added some potential weapons to the offense that will allow Jim Harbaugh to open up more of the playbook for quarterback Alex Smith. The team will have tough road games (Patriots, Packers, Saints), and could see some challenges from visiting teams (Lions, Bills, Giants, Bears). Ultimately, I don't think the 49ers will be able to replicate their 13-3 record from a season ago, but should be a better (and more well-balanced) team this season.
Predicted Record: 11-5

Grading the 2008 NFL Draft: NFC West

It often takes up to four seasons in order to gauge how well an NFL team drafted. With that in mind, I'll be grading each of the 32 NFL teams drafts in an eight part, divison-by-division series. For the first installment, we'll be discussing how the teams from the NFC West fared.

Arizona Cardinals
1(16)   - CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State
2(50)   - DE Calais Campbell, Miami (FL)
3(81)   - WR Early Doucet, LSU
4(116) - DE Kenny Iwebema, Iowa
5(149) - RB Tim Hightower, Richmond
6(185) - DE Chris Harrington, Texas A&M
7(225) - OT Brandon Keith, Northern Iowa
Thoughts: Calais Campbell has been one of the premiere 3-4 defensive ends in the league the last three years, and has averaged 60 tackles and 7.0 sacks per season in that span. Rodgers-Cromartie was part of the Kevin Kolb trade, and is a solid nickel cornerback for the Eagles. Doucet struggled in his first three years in the league, but had a solid season in 2011 (689 yards, 5 TD). Hightower was having a solid first year with Washington before tearing his ACL in week seven. Keith has started 20 of the 26 games he's played in, but is much better suited as a swing tackle than a starter. Iwebema played three nondescript years for the Cardinals, and was a preseason roster cut before this past season. Harrington was cut in training camp as a rookie, and last appeared in an NFL game for the Jaguars in 2009. Overall, the Cardinals found value in almost every pick, and Campbell in particular is bordering on elite.
Final Grade: B+

Potential Destinations for Peyton Manning

With March 8th looming, Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay is in an unenviable position. His franchise quarterback Peyton Manning is still trying to recover from three neck surgeries in the last two years, the most recent procedure costing him the entire 2011 season. Without Manning, the Colts floundered, losing their first 13 games of the season, and ending up in a tie with St. Louis for the worst record in the league.
Manning is due a $28 million roster bonus in less than a month, and while both sides have said they'd like to find a way to keep Peyton with the Colts, the writing appears to be on the wall. Whether it was their back-and-forth during Super Bowl week about the environment at the Colts facilities, or the fact that ownership has said they're going to draft a quarterback with the #1 overall pick this season, the odds of Manning staying in Indianapolis seems to shrink by the day. Should he hit the free agent market, here are some of the teams that could be interested in his services.

Washington Redskins
The Redskins were simply putrid at the quarterback position, as Rex Grossman (16 TD, 20 INT, 72.4 quarterback rating) and John Beck (2 TD, 4 INT, 72.1 quarterback rating) seemed horribly out of place as an NFL starter. Owner Daniel Snyder has never been shy in doling out big contracts, and Mike Shanahan hasn't had an elite level quarterback since John Elway was under center for the Broncos in the late 1990's. The receiving corps needs an upgrade, but if the fron office is able to retain tight end Fred Davis, it would give Manning his next potential Dallas Clark.
Fit: Poor
For my money, I have a hard time seeing Manning going to an offense whose line was largely mediocre in pass protection (41 sacks allowed), and the lack of a solid running game or true #1 receiver. If Manning were to play in Washington, it would either have to be because he wants to play for Mike Shanahan, or he really likes what Daniel Snyder has to offer (money).

NFL Predictions: Conference Championships

Note: these predictions will be somewhat short since my computer crashed last night.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots -

For Baltimore, their key to this game will be ball-control. The Patriots offense is too explosive for their offense to try and have to match score-for score. Expect coordinator Cam Cameron to use Ray Rice extensively, both as a runner and receiver to take pressure off of Joe Flacco. By doing this, it will allow the Baltimore defense to stay fresh, giving them enough energy to try and stop Brady, Welker, Gronkowski and the rest of a talented Pats offense.

For New England, look for the Patriots to use a lot of quick-hitting pass plays to Grinkowski, Hernandez and Welker to counter-act a ferocious Ravens pass rush. Expect to see Brady in shotgun formations almost exclusively to give him more time to throw.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 23. I expect Ray Rice to approach 150 total yards in the game, and the Ravens defense will keep them in the game, but the Patriots are simply playing too well on offense to fall short of a Super Bowl appearance.



New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
Tom Coughlin will be looking for a second Super Bowl appearance, while the 49ers will be looking to get back for the first time since 1995.

The Giants are as hot as any team in the league, and have looked spectacular in wins over the Falcons and Packers. The key for New York to win this game will be getting pressure on 49ers quarterback Alex Smith. Smith was able to get into a rhythm early last week against the Saints, and was able to make a inch of big plays late to help the 49ers get a thrilling win.

For the 49ers, their key to the game will be establishing their running game early. If the offensive line is able to open up holes for Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter, Smith will be able to utilize play-action find open receivers in one-on-one coverage. Vernon Davis had a huge week against the Saints, so expect the Giants to key on him. Watch for Michael Crabtree to see a lot of single-coverage.

Prediction: 49ers 30, Giants 23. San Francisco should be able to disrupt Manning's rhythm early, and their offense will wear down the pass-rushers up front with a solid running game. Manning will still make some plays through the air, but the Giants won't be able to run the ball effectively against a stingy San Franciscofront seven, forcing Eli into taking one too many risks that will ultimately cost the, the game.

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 5-3

NFL Playoffs: Division Round Predictions

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers - With the Saints coming off a 45-28 win over the Detroit Lions on Wild Card weekend, they now hit the road for a game against one of the league's stingiest defenses in the San Francisco 49ers, who just finished their bye week.
For the Saints, the key to their offense as always is the arm of quarterback Drew Brees, who threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns in their last game. While the Saints have the #1 pass offense and total offense in the league, as well as the #2 scoring offense, the team tends to struggle much more away from the Superdome. This season, they are 5-3 on the road, dropping games to Green Bay (15-1, no shame in that), Tampa Bay (4-12) and St. Louis (2-14). My keys to this game are:
For New Orleans: Protect Drew Brees. In two of their three losses (Green Bay and St. Louis), New Orleans' Brees was sacked a total of nine times. The 49ers have a good pass rush, led by rookie Aldon Smith's 14.0, and if a team is able to disrupt Brees' rhythm, they'll likely find themselves with a chance to win when the fourth quarter rolls around.
For San Francisco: Red Zone Efficiency. The one glaring area of concern for me with the 49ers is their lack of touchdowns when in the red zone. San Francisco was 30th in the league converting their red zone opportunities into six points (just under 41%), and against a team like the Saints, you can't afford to settle for three points. If San Francisco is able to put the ball into the end zone on sustained drives, they'll have a very good chance to win.
For Both Teams: Convert third down. The Saints finished the league first in that category at a whopping 57% conversion rate, while the 49ers finished next to last, converting only 29% of their third downs. If San Francisco wants to have a chance against the Saints, they'll need to improve upon that number. Sustained drvies lower the amount of possessions in a game, and it also would keep their defense rested, which is a good thing, because they'll need to be fresh against such an explosive team like New Orleans.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 27, New Orleans Saints 24. The 49ers will find success on the ground, and Alex Smith will convert a few big third downs to keep the chains moving to win the game, as the Saints road struggles continue, as the franchise has yet to win a playoff game on the road.