Grading the Deal: Dophins trade for Ravens' Bryant McKinnie

The Miami Dolphins, apparently tired of seeing their second-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill continually battered, have reportedly acquired Baltimore Ravens offensive tackle Bryant McKinnie. McKinnie, who was replaced as the starting left tackle after Baltimore traded for Eugene Monroe a couple of weeks ago, will get another opportunity to become a starter. The move was first reported by Fox Sports' Jay Glazer:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>The Miami Dolphins, who&#39;ve been dealing w o-line trouble, have traded with the Ravens for Bryant McKinnie according to Ravens sources</p>&mdash; Jay Glazer (@JayGlazer) <a href="https://twitter.com/JayGlazer/statuses/392353859969884161">October 21, 2013</a></blockquote>
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The Dolphins have surrendered 26 sacks through six games, including two late in their last-minute loss on Sunday to the Buffalo Bills, the second one which led to a Tannehill lost fumble. Buffalo ate up the next three minutes before making the deciding 31-yard field goal with just over 30 seconds left in the game.

While McKinnie is still no longer the Pro Bowl-caliber player he was for Minnesota during the early-to-mid 2000's, he will likely see he field soon. Tyson Clabo has been beaten regularly at right tackle, while Jonathan Martin has shown improvement but still has a ways to go.

Grade for Miami: B-. Taking a chance on a former Pro Bowler is a fairly low-risk proposition for the Dolphins, who desperately need better play from their offensive line if they want to compete for a playoff spot this season. Perhaps a move to his old collegiate stomping grounds and a warm-weather city could give McKinnie's play a boost.

Grade for Baltimore: B. After acquiring a new offensive tackle in Eugene Monroe, the team clearly had no plans to keep McKinnie after this season. Getting what will likely be a late-round pick for an aging veteran is a solid haul.

2012/13 Predictions: Conference Championships

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
In the 49ers win over the Green Bay Packers, quarterback Colin Kaepernick set an NFL record with 181 rushing yards (and two touchdowns) as the 49ers amassed over 500 yards of offense. Kaepernick was able to shake off an early pick-six by Sam Shields, and had perhaps had the best postseason debut by a quarterback in NFL history, adding 263 yards and two touchdowns through the air to his tremendous rushing performance.
The defense for the 49ers wasn't always spectacular, but the team did a great job of limiting Aaron Rodgers' opportunities for big plays. Justin Smith was productive in the game, though there were still times when the triceps injury was evident.
Atlanta was able to get the monkey off their back, though it didn't come easy for the Falcons, who blew a 27-7 fourth quarter lead only to come back with a game-winning field goal drive in the game's final 31 seconds. Matt Ryan made two big completions, which led to Matt Bryant's game winner, including a 19-yarder to Tony Gonzalez with just 14 seconds remaining to get them in range.
Perhaps the two most impressive aspects of the Falcons win were the fact that they were able to rack up 167 rushing yards against a strong Seattle run defense, and also limited the Seahawks running game to 123 yards on 28 carries. Atlanta had been vulnerable against the run game at times this season, and also struggled to get a consistent running game going. Neither were evident in the victory, as Jacquizz Rodgers set the tone early with a 45-yard run that saw 'Quizz' run over Seattle's All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman.
If the Falcons are able to contain the running game of San Francisco, there stands a very good chance Atlanta reaches the Super Bowl. I'm just not sure their defensive line (which includes a banged-up John Abraham) can stand up to the 49ers power running attack.
Prediction: 49ers 31, Falcons 20.

2012/13 NFL Predictions: Divisional Round

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos
The Ravens were able to get a win in what was the final home game of linebacker Ray Lewis' career. Lewis has been the vocal and emotional leader of the Ravens since being drafted out of Miami (FL) in 1996, and his presence will be missed, not only on the field, but also in the locker room. Baltimore's passing game produced some big plays against the Colts, and will need to continue to do so in this game.
After their first-round bye, Denver should be well-rested and prepared, as the Broncos were the hottest team in the league, winning their last eleven games of the regular season. Peyton Manning hasn't had a lot of success in cold-weather playoff games, so the Broncos could use a heavy dose of Knowshon Moreno against a surprisingly pedestrian Ravens run defense.
The Broncos pass-rush, headed by Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, will keep Flacco under pressure for a lot of the game. The Ravens will also be going up against the #2 total defense and #4 scoring defense in the league this past season, which is no small task. To make matters worse, they're playing a rested team that plays nearly a mile-above sea level, so the Broncos will likely run a lot of no-huddle to keep the Ravens from substituting. Barring a Manning letdown, the Broncos move on the AFC Championship game.
Prediction: Broncos 27, Ravens 17.

2012 NFL Predictions: Week Seven

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
Despite losing Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb to injury, the Ravens were able to hold off a game Cowboys team this past week. Even with those players healthy, the Ravens defense has simply been average, allowing 396.7 yards per game (26th in the league). The defense has done a good job of forcing turnovers (10), but also has struggled to get after opposing quarterbacks without LB Terrell Suggs, who could potentially return from his Achilles' injury this Sunday.
Houston got embarrassed at home in a loss to the Packers on Monday night, as the defense surrendered six passing touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers. Despite the loss, the Texans are still a great team, yet could use more help in the passing game. Andre Johnson is a Pro Bowl receiver, and Owen Daniels is an underrated pass-catcher, but the team lacks a true #2 receiver to take pressure off of Johnson. Defensive end J.J. Watt continues his hot start, as he added two more sacks to his league-leading total (now 9.5) this past week, and while it's still early, could have a good shot to break Michael Strahan's single-season record (22.5).
Baltimore tends to get away from their running game too much, and the defense has struggled against the run some this season. Despite being on a short week, the Texans get it done.
Prediction: Texans 24, Ravens 17.

Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams
The Packers got back on track in a big way in their road romp over the aforementioned Texans. WR Jordy Nelson caught three of Aaron Rodgers' six touchdown passes, and will need to continue to get production out of the passing game, as their running game is sub-par. On defense, the Packers are better in yards allowed from last year, and the pass rush has returned to its 2010 form. A part of that has been the success of rookies like LB Nick Perry and DT Jerel Worthy (2.0 sacks each), as well as CB Casey Heyward (3 interceptions).
The Rams offensive line is still struggling to protect third-year quarterback Sam Bradford (18 sacks) and misses WR Danny Amendola (separated shoulder), but has done enough to see the team have a 3-3 record. While this doesn't sound like much, the Rams haven't won more than three games in a year just once since the start of the 2007 season. The team also seems to have found the heir-apparent to replace Steven Jackson, as Daryl Richardson (246 yards, 5.2 per carry) has provided some explosive plays as the #2 guy in the backfield pecking order. Richardson (who went undrafted) beat out second round pick Isaiah Pead in training camp, and has done nothing to dissuade Jeff Fisher and the Rams coaching staff from giving him touches.
This is a classic "trap game" for Green Bay, and the team will struggle to protect Aaron Rodgers from a strong Rams pass rush. The problem for the Rams is that Green Bay also has a strong pass rush, as well as better offensive weapons.
Prediction: Packers 23, Rams 20.

Grading the 2008 NFL Draft: AFC North

In this, the seventh installment of my re-grade of the 2008 NFL Draft, I'll be focusing on the AFC North. Previous installments are linked below.
AFC South, AFC West, NFC West, NFC South, NFC North, NFC East

Baltimore Ravens
1(18)   - QB Joe Flacco, Delaware
2(55)   - RB Ray Rice, Rutgers
3(71)   - LB Tavares Gooden, Miami (FL)
3(86)   - S Tom Zbikowski, Notre Dame
3(99)   - OT Oniel Cousins, UTEP
4(106) - WR Marcus Smith, New Mexico
4(133) - OT David Hale, Weber State
6(206) - S Haruki Nakamura, Cincinnati
7(215) - WR Justin Harper, Virginia Tech
7(240) - RB Allen Patrick, Oklahoma
Thoughts: Flacco emerged in his fourth season in Baltimore, outshining Tom Brady in nearly leading the Ravens to the Super Bowl. Rice is one of the best running backs in the game, and is a two-time All-Pro. Gooden started all 16 games during the 2009 season, but has largely been a backup (most recently with the 49ers in 2011). Zbikowski has been a great special teams player, and is a solid backup for the Ravens defense. Cousins spent the 2011 season with Cleveland after three years as a reserve in Baltimore. Smith recorded 27 tackles as a gunner from 2008-2010 (missing the 2009 season due to a torn ACL) but was cut prior to the 2011 season. Hale appeared in 18 games through the 2009 season, but was released before the 2010 season. Nakamura (like Zbikowski) provides solid depth at safety and a solid coverage player in special teams. Harper appeared in just two games (both in 2009), while Patrick spent time on the Ravens, Giants, Colts and Rams as either a practice squad, training camp or mini-camp invite.
Grade: B

Cincinnati Benglas
1(9)     - LB Keith Rivers, Southern California
2(46)   - WR Jerome Simpson, Coastal Carolina
3(77)   - DT Pat Sims, Auburn
3(97)   - WR Andre Caldwell, Florida
4(112) - OT Anthony Collins, Kansas
5(145) - DT Jason Shirley, Fresno State
6(177) - S Corey Lynch, Appalachian State
6(207) - TE Matt Sherry, Villanova
7(244) - DE Angelo Craig, Cincinnati
7(246) - WR Mario Urrutia, Louisville
Thoughts: Rivers is a great athlete, but has missed time due to injury every season (including the entire 2011 campaign). Simpson emerged as a solid #2 option behind A.J. Green, but a pending marijuana traifficking charge could land him in jail. Sims was a rotation tackle before landing on injured reserve after week twelve. After a quiet rookie season, Caldwell has had three straight seasons with over 300 receiving yards as an underneath receiver. Collins has been the third tackle for most of the past four seasons, but does have 18 starts. Lynch appeared in seven games on special teams as a rookie, and has spent the past three seasons in Tampa, including eight starts. Craig split time between two practice squads in 2008 (Panthers, Patriots), while both Sherry and Urrutia never recorded a single reception in the league.
Grade: D

Cleveland Browns
4(104) - LB Beau Bell, UNLV
4(111) - TE Martin Rucker, Missouri
6(190) - DT Ahtyba Rubin, Iowa State
6(191) - WR Paul Hubbard, Wisconsin
7(231) - DE Alex Hall, St. Augustine's
Thoughts: Bell appeared in just five games in 2008, recording three tackles and a forced fumble in his only season. Rucker has just career catches in 5 games played, and has spent time on the Eagles, Cowboys and Jaguars. After a quiet first couple of seasons, Rubin has started each game the past two seasons, totaling 165 tackles and 7.0 sacks in that span. Hubbard has one career catch, which came in 2010 with the Bills. Hall appeared in all 16 games as a rookie (28 tackles, 3.0 sacks), but has totaled just 16 appearances the past three seasons with the Browns, Cardinals and Giants. No early picks, but Rubin has been the only player to make an impact.
Grade: C-

Pittsburgh Steelers
1(23)   - RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois
2(53)   - WR Limas Sweed, Texas
3(88)   - LB Bruce Davis, UCLA
4(130) - OT Tony Hills, Texas
5(156) - QB Dennis Dixon, Oregon
6(188) - LB Mike Humpal, Iowa
6(194) - S Ryan Mundy, West Virginia
Thoughts: After a rookie season spent largely on injured reserve, Mendenhall has averaged over 1,100 yards rushing and 9 touchdowns the past three seasons. Sweed had a quiet first two seasons, and suffered a torn Achilles tendon in a 2010 mini-camp, and was waived in mid-September of 2011. Davis struggled transitioning from defensive end to outside linebacker, and has recorded just five total tackles with the Steelers and Raiders. Hills spent three seasons on Pittsburgh's roster (playing four games in 2010), and played with Denver in 2011. Dixon has appeared in four games with Pittsburgh (3 starts), going 35-59 for 402 yards, with one touchdown to two interceptions. Humpal spent his one season in the NFL on Pittsburgh's injured reserve list. After spending his first season on the practice squad, Mundy has become a solid backup and special teams player for the Steelers (91 tackles and one interception in 48 games).
Grade: C-

NFL Predictions: Conference Championships

Note: these predictions will be somewhat short since my computer crashed last night.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots -

For Baltimore, their key to this game will be ball-control. The Patriots offense is too explosive for their offense to try and have to match score-for score. Expect coordinator Cam Cameron to use Ray Rice extensively, both as a runner and receiver to take pressure off of Joe Flacco. By doing this, it will allow the Baltimore defense to stay fresh, giving them enough energy to try and stop Brady, Welker, Gronkowski and the rest of a talented Pats offense.

For New England, look for the Patriots to use a lot of quick-hitting pass plays to Grinkowski, Hernandez and Welker to counter-act a ferocious Ravens pass rush. Expect to see Brady in shotgun formations almost exclusively to give him more time to throw.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 23. I expect Ray Rice to approach 150 total yards in the game, and the Ravens defense will keep them in the game, but the Patriots are simply playing too well on offense to fall short of a Super Bowl appearance.



New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
Tom Coughlin will be looking for a second Super Bowl appearance, while the 49ers will be looking to get back for the first time since 1995.

The Giants are as hot as any team in the league, and have looked spectacular in wins over the Falcons and Packers. The key for New York to win this game will be getting pressure on 49ers quarterback Alex Smith. Smith was able to get into a rhythm early last week against the Saints, and was able to make a inch of big plays late to help the 49ers get a thrilling win.

For the 49ers, their key to the game will be establishing their running game early. If the offensive line is able to open up holes for Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter, Smith will be able to utilize play-action find open receivers in one-on-one coverage. Vernon Davis had a huge week against the Saints, so expect the Giants to key on him. Watch for Michael Crabtree to see a lot of single-coverage.

Prediction: 49ers 30, Giants 23. San Francisco should be able to disrupt Manning's rhythm early, and their offense will wear down the pass-rushers up front with a solid running game. Manning will still make some plays through the air, but the Giants won't be able to run the ball effectively against a stingy San Franciscofront seven, forcing Eli into taking one too many risks that will ultimately cost the, the game.

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 5-3

NFL Playoffs: Division Round Predictions

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers - With the Saints coming off a 45-28 win over the Detroit Lions on Wild Card weekend, they now hit the road for a game against one of the league's stingiest defenses in the San Francisco 49ers, who just finished their bye week.
For the Saints, the key to their offense as always is the arm of quarterback Drew Brees, who threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns in their last game. While the Saints have the #1 pass offense and total offense in the league, as well as the #2 scoring offense, the team tends to struggle much more away from the Superdome. This season, they are 5-3 on the road, dropping games to Green Bay (15-1, no shame in that), Tampa Bay (4-12) and St. Louis (2-14). My keys to this game are:
For New Orleans: Protect Drew Brees. In two of their three losses (Green Bay and St. Louis), New Orleans' Brees was sacked a total of nine times. The 49ers have a good pass rush, led by rookie Aldon Smith's 14.0, and if a team is able to disrupt Brees' rhythm, they'll likely find themselves with a chance to win when the fourth quarter rolls around.
For San Francisco: Red Zone Efficiency. The one glaring area of concern for me with the 49ers is their lack of touchdowns when in the red zone. San Francisco was 30th in the league converting their red zone opportunities into six points (just under 41%), and against a team like the Saints, you can't afford to settle for three points. If San Francisco is able to put the ball into the end zone on sustained drives, they'll have a very good chance to win.
For Both Teams: Convert third down. The Saints finished the league first in that category at a whopping 57% conversion rate, while the 49ers finished next to last, converting only 29% of their third downs. If San Francisco wants to have a chance against the Saints, they'll need to improve upon that number. Sustained drvies lower the amount of possessions in a game, and it also would keep their defense rested, which is a good thing, because they'll need to be fresh against such an explosive team like New Orleans.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 27, New Orleans Saints 24. The 49ers will find success on the ground, and Alex Smith will convert a few big third downs to keep the chains moving to win the game, as the Saints road struggles continue, as the franchise has yet to win a playoff game on the road.

Projecting The Playoffs: AFC

Today, I'm taking on the monumental task of trying to forecast the AFC playoff race, which has 13 of the 16 teams currently within two games of a Wild Card Spot. As it stands right now, here are the standings. I'm currently leaving out the Browns and Chiefs, as the playoffs are probably out of reach for both these teams (at least in part due to injuries).

1. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
2. Houston Texans (7-3)
3. New England Patriots (7-3)
4. Oakland Raiders (6-4)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
Currently Out: Denver Broncos (5-5), Tennessee Titans (5-5), New York Jets (5-5), Buffalo Bills (5-5), San Diego Chargers (4-6)