In the final NFC installment, we'll be taking a look at the NFC East. For previous installments, see below.
NFC West, NFC South, NFC North
Dallas Cowboys
1(22) - RB Felix Jones, Arkansas
1(25) - CB Mike Jenkins, South Florida
2(61) - TE Martellus Bennett, Texas A&M
4(122) - RB Tashard Choice, Georgia Tech
5(143) - CB Orlando Scandrick, Boise State
6(167) - DE Erik Walden, Middle Tennessee
Thoughts: Jones (like former college teammate Darren McFadden) is a dynamic home-run threat out of the backfield, but has missed 16 career games due to injury, and was beat out by DeMarco Murray midway through this season as the Cowboys feature back. Jenkins has just two interceptions the past two seasons, and could find himself relegated to nickel back next season. Bennett was supposed to provide Dallas with a second solid tight end option behind Jason Witten, but has struggled with both blocking and attention to detail, and found himself as the third tight end much of this past season. Choice had a promising start to his career as a change-of-pace back, but his issues with fumbling caused him to be cut by both Dallas and Washington before finishing the season in Buffalo with his former college coach, Chan Gailey. Scandrick has been durable in his first four seasons, and has played fairly well in spot start duty throughout his career. Walden was among the roster cuts for Dallas in 2008, and bounced around before landing on the Packers as an outside linebacker, where he made 15 starts in 2011 (60 tackles, 3.0 sacks). Solid draft for Dallas, but a little lacking on high-level talent.
Grade: B-
New York Giants
1(31) - S Kenny Phillips, Miami (FL)
2(63) - CB Terrell Thomas, Southern California
3(95) - WR Mario Manningham, Michigan
4(123) - LB Bryan Kehl, Brigham Young
5(165) - LB Jonathan Goff, Vanderbilt
6(198) - QB Andre Woodson, Kentucky
6(199) - DE Robert Henderson, Southern Miss
Thoughts: Phillips (36 starts, 8 INT career) has been a solid starter at safety the past two seasons, while Terrell Thomas had ten interceptions and 31 starts between 2009-2010 but was on injured reserve for the entire 2011 season. Manningham slid to slot receiver this season following the emergence of Victor Cruz, and made the key fourth quarter catch in the Super Bowl to knock off the Patriots for their second Super Bowl victory in four years. Kehl has split time with the Giants and Rams as a career special-teamer. Goff was a full-time starter in 2010, but like Thomas, spent his 2011 season on IR. Woodson was a project quarterback that split time between the Giants and Redskins practice squads through 2009. Henderson was injured during his first career preseason game, and spent time on the Jaguars and Lions practice squads through 2009. Fairly solid production out of this group, and they didn't miss on any of their first three picks.
Grade: B
Philadelphia Eagles
2(47) - DT Trevor Laws, Notre Dame
2(49) - WR DeSean Jackson, California
3(80) - DE Bryan Smith, McNeese State
4(109) - G Mike McGlynn, Pittsburgh
4(117) - S Quintin Demps, UTEP
4(131) - CB Jack Ikegwuonu, Wisconsin
6(184) - OT Mike Gibson, California
6(200) - LB Joe Mays, North Dakota State
6(203) - DE Andy Studebaker, Wheaton (IL)
7(230) - OT King Dunlap, Auburn
Thoughts: Laws has one career start in his four seasons in Philly, and is largely a fourth defensive tackle. Jackson is the gem of this draft class, and is likely to be given the teams' franchise tag, though his attitude and effort are both inconsistent. Smith was cut prior to the 2008 season, and spent some time on the Rams and Jaguars. McGlynn was a starter for the Eagles in 2010, but was released during final cuts and spent this past season as a part-time starter for the Bengals. Demps has been largely a reserve for the Eagles (2008-2009) and Texans (2010-2011). Ikegwuonu spent his rookie season on IR and washed out of the league a season later. Gibson was a roster cut in 2008, but has spent the last three seasons as a reserve lineman for the Seahawks. Mays has spent the last two seasons with the Broncos, including 12 starts in 2011. Studebaker has spent his entire career with the Chiefs as a reserve linebacker/special teamer, and Dunlap has had mixed success in spot duty for the Eagles the past three seasons. Outside of Jackson, the team hasn't got much production from the rest of this draft.
Grade: C-
Washington Redskins
2(34) - WR Devin Thomas, Michigan State
2(48) - TE Fred Davis, Southern California
2(51) - WR Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma
3(96) - OT Chad Rinehart, Northern Iowa
4(124) - CB Justin Tryon, Arizona State
6(168) - P Durant Brooks, Georgia Tech
6(180) - S Kareem Moore, Nicholls State
6(186) - QB Colt Brennan, Hawaii
7(242) - DE Rob Jackson, Kansas State
7(249) - S Chris Horton, UCLA
Thoughts: Thomas (40 catches, 445 yards, 3 TD) had two poor season in Washington before joining the Giants near the end of the 2010 season, and is a kick returner/special teamer for the G-Men. Fellow wideout Kelly (28 catches, 365 yards) also played two seasons in Washington, spent the entire 2010 season on IR, and was cut before the 2011 season. Fred Davis has emerged as a terrific receiving option for the Redskins, but received a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy at the end of 2011. Rinehart was largely a reserve lineman for Washington, but got 12 starts for the Bills due to injuries along the offense line in 2011. Tryon has been a career reserve with the 'Skins, Colts and Giants while Brooks punted for half a season before being cut due to poor performance. Moore started 11 games in 2010, but was cut prior to the season opener this year. Horton started as safety as a rookie, but spent the next two seasons as a reserve, and like Moore, was cut prior to the season. Colt Brennan shined in the preseason in 2008 and 2009, but never got a true opportunity to play in the regular season for any team. Jackson has been a special teamer and backup at both defensive end and outside linebacker after the team transitioned to a 3-4 defense. Outside of Davis, this was a pretty poor showing for Washington.
Grade: D
Showing posts with label New York Giants. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New York Giants. Show all posts
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Super Bowl XLVI Prediction
Well folks, after a long season, we've finally reached The Big Game. The New York Giants are facing the New England Patriots in a rematch from Super Bowl XLII, where the Giants ended the Patriots hopes for a perfect season with a 17-14 win. Tom Brady was harassed all day, and the potent Patriots offense was held to 274 yards. While this is a different season, there will be some similarities in the teams' gameplans.
New York Giants
Overview: Going back to the regular season, the G-Men are currently riding a five game winning streak. Eli Manning has been the offensive catalyst, throwing for 1,496 yards in that span, with 12 TD to only two interceptions. Also of note is the fact that the New York running game has found it stride in the postseason, averaging over 117 yards per game. While that number may not blow people away, there are two reasons that number is significant: 1) the added balance allows Manning to effectively utilize play-action (one of his best attributes) and; 2) two of their opponents in that time, Atlanta (6th) and San Francisco (1st), had two of the best run defenses in the league during the regular season.
Defensively, this team possesses one of the best pass rushes of any in the league. While Jason Pierre-Paul finished with a team-high 16.5 sacks, it is hardly a one man show. Osi Umenyiora had 9 sacks in 9 regular season games this season, while Justin Tuck (a former double-digit sack player) had five. Other solid pass rushers include LB Mathias Kiwanuka (3.5), DT Chris Canty (4.0) and Dave Tollefson (5.0). The one area of concern for the Giants' 'D' is their secondary, which allowed 255.1 yards per game. While the Giants did record 20 interceptions, they also surrendered 28 TD through the air (t-26th).
Kicker Lawerence Tynes was 19-24 on field goals during the regular season, but was just 4-8 from kicks 40 yards and out. Punter Steve Weatherford has a strong leg that saw him average 45.7 yards per punt, with 25 of his 82 downed inside the 20. The Giants didn't have much success in the return game, as the averaged just 6.1 yards per punt return and 23.3 yards per kick return. On their coverage units, the Giants surrendered 9.9 yards per punt return and 22.9 yards per kick return.
Injuries: All six players listed on the Giants report are probable to play. I'll be keeping an eye on three of them throughout the game. Hakeem Nicks has battled nagging injuries (shoulder, hamstring, ankle), and occasionally has to come out of the game to get stretched out. Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) was a limited participant a couple of days this week, but will probably get the start (though I wouldn't be surprised to see a more 50/50 split of the carries with Jacobs). Osi Umenyiora (ankle, knee) is probably the Giants second-biggest weapon on defense, and has averaged a sack a game since returning from injury.
Keys to the Game
1) Balanced play-calling: While a 50/50 run-pass split in today's game is unheard of (unless you're the Denver Broncos), offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride has to find a way to keep the Patriots defense off balance. Despite their terrible numbers, any defense that can key on just one phase of offense (i.e. the pass) generally has much more success. I expect the Giants to run of first down close to an even split, which should set up Manning to use play-action to test the Patriots secondary with Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.
2) Beat up Brady: The Giants have had success against the Patriots in large part due to the fact that they are able to generate a great pass rush using largely just their defensive line. In doing this, it allows defensive coordinator Perry Fewell to drop seven in pass coverage. As a result, Brady has smaller open areas when facing zone, and double-coverage on at least one receiver (two if the Giants employ 'zero' coverage). The Giants will need to hit Brady early and often, which will give any quarterback (including Brady) happy feet in the pocket.
3) Limit yards after catch: Despite their statistically prolific passing offense, the Patriots do most of their damage with undeneath routes to WR Wes Welker and TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The Patriots offense almost works in reverse, with the tight ends often stretching the field vertically, opening up the underneath routes for Welker and Deion Branch
New England Patriots
Overview: The Patriots are riding a ten game winning streak entering the Super Bowl. Their last loss? November 6th in Foxborough to the very same Giants they face on Sunday. New England boasts one of the premier offenses, as Rob Gronkowski had the single greatest statistical season for a tight end in NFL history. Tom Brady finished with the second most passing yards in NFL history (behind Drew Brees), and Wes Welker again led the NFL with 122 receiving yards. The Patriots use a running back committee that includes Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Stevan Ridley and Kevin Faulk, and have good secondary options in tight end Aaron Hernandez and Deion Branch.
Defensively, the Patriots finished 31st in the league in both total yards and passing yards allowed. Despite their propensity for giving up yards through the air, they still finished with an AFC-best 23 interceptions, and sacked opposing quarterbacks 40 times. Defensive tackle Vince Wilfork does a good job of clogging up the middle, and head coach Bill Belichick is one of the best in football at disguising coverages, which helps put his players in position to make plays. The pass rush will lean heavily on Mark Anderson (10.0 sacks), Rob Ninkovich (6.5) and Wilfork (3.5).
Kicker Steven Gostkowski was 27-32 on field goals during the season, including 10-13 from 40+ yards out. Punter Zoltan Mezko averaged 46.5 yards per punt, and had 24 of 57 punts downed inside the opponents 20 yard line. New England averaged 10.2 yards per punt return (1 TD) and 21.4 yards per kick return, while they allowed just 8.5 yards per punt return and 21.6 yards per kick return.
Injuries: The Pats lost key pass-rusher Andre Carter (10.0 sacks) in mid-December to a torn left quadriceps, which will put more pressure on the aforementioned pass-rushers to harass Eli Manning. Rob Gronkowski suffered a high-ankle sprain late in the Pats AFC Championship victory over the Ravens. While he is very likely going to play in the Super Bowl, how effective he'll be remains to be seen.
Keys to the Game
1) Protect Tom Brady: Brady was sacked just twice in their meeting earlier in the year, but did have to deal with consistent pressure throughout the game. In their Super Bowl loss in 2008, Brady was sacked six times. Brady is simply deadly with time to throw, so I expect the Patriots to frequently use their running backs to chip the Giants' defensive ends to help out the offensive line.
2) Third Down Conversions: The Patriots converted just 1/3 of their 15 third downs against the Giants in their regular season matchup. The Patriots can achieve this by running the ball on early downs to set up more manageable down-and-distance. If New England is able to avoid third and long, they can use their no-huddle to wear down the Giants pass rushers.
3) Disguise Coverage: Eli Manning has been playing as well as any quarterback in the league over the last couple months, and has perhaps the best receiving tandem in the league in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks (who didn't play in their regular season matchup due to injury). The Patriots had reasonable success against the Giants in the loss, but will need to do utilize well-disguised formations to try and confuse Manning and his pre-snap reads. If that Pats can create a little bit of confusion, Manning could very well make a game-changing mistake.
Game Breakdown
This game could very well play out similarly to the teams' two previous matchups (both Giants wins). It appears as though Eli Manning has a more favorable matchup against a Patriots defense that is vulnerable through the air, and will be without one of their top pass rushers. Brady will have to face a defense that's surrendering just 321 yards and 13 points per game this postseason, and has recorded total sacks in their previous three playoff games. I give a slight coaching edge to the Patriots, as Bill Belichick has three Super Bowl rings, and is probably a little bit better game-planner than Tom Coughlin.
Prediction
Giants 30, Patriots 23
The Giants once-beleaguered running game has found its stride in the playoffs, and Eli Manning has performed as consistently well as any quarterback in this years' postseason. New England will likely have their moments, but the Giants will hit Brady enough to keep him (slightly) out of rhythm, giving the Giants their second Super Bowl win over the Patriots since 2008.
New York Giants
Overview: Going back to the regular season, the G-Men are currently riding a five game winning streak. Eli Manning has been the offensive catalyst, throwing for 1,496 yards in that span, with 12 TD to only two interceptions. Also of note is the fact that the New York running game has found it stride in the postseason, averaging over 117 yards per game. While that number may not blow people away, there are two reasons that number is significant: 1) the added balance allows Manning to effectively utilize play-action (one of his best attributes) and; 2) two of their opponents in that time, Atlanta (6th) and San Francisco (1st), had two of the best run defenses in the league during the regular season.
Defensively, this team possesses one of the best pass rushes of any in the league. While Jason Pierre-Paul finished with a team-high 16.5 sacks, it is hardly a one man show. Osi Umenyiora had 9 sacks in 9 regular season games this season, while Justin Tuck (a former double-digit sack player) had five. Other solid pass rushers include LB Mathias Kiwanuka (3.5), DT Chris Canty (4.0) and Dave Tollefson (5.0). The one area of concern for the Giants' 'D' is their secondary, which allowed 255.1 yards per game. While the Giants did record 20 interceptions, they also surrendered 28 TD through the air (t-26th).
Kicker Lawerence Tynes was 19-24 on field goals during the regular season, but was just 4-8 from kicks 40 yards and out. Punter Steve Weatherford has a strong leg that saw him average 45.7 yards per punt, with 25 of his 82 downed inside the 20. The Giants didn't have much success in the return game, as the averaged just 6.1 yards per punt return and 23.3 yards per kick return. On their coverage units, the Giants surrendered 9.9 yards per punt return and 22.9 yards per kick return.
Injuries: All six players listed on the Giants report are probable to play. I'll be keeping an eye on three of them throughout the game. Hakeem Nicks has battled nagging injuries (shoulder, hamstring, ankle), and occasionally has to come out of the game to get stretched out. Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) was a limited participant a couple of days this week, but will probably get the start (though I wouldn't be surprised to see a more 50/50 split of the carries with Jacobs). Osi Umenyiora (ankle, knee) is probably the Giants second-biggest weapon on defense, and has averaged a sack a game since returning from injury.
Keys to the Game
1) Balanced play-calling: While a 50/50 run-pass split in today's game is unheard of (unless you're the Denver Broncos), offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride has to find a way to keep the Patriots defense off balance. Despite their terrible numbers, any defense that can key on just one phase of offense (i.e. the pass) generally has much more success. I expect the Giants to run of first down close to an even split, which should set up Manning to use play-action to test the Patriots secondary with Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.
2) Beat up Brady: The Giants have had success against the Patriots in large part due to the fact that they are able to generate a great pass rush using largely just their defensive line. In doing this, it allows defensive coordinator Perry Fewell to drop seven in pass coverage. As a result, Brady has smaller open areas when facing zone, and double-coverage on at least one receiver (two if the Giants employ 'zero' coverage). The Giants will need to hit Brady early and often, which will give any quarterback (including Brady) happy feet in the pocket.
3) Limit yards after catch: Despite their statistically prolific passing offense, the Patriots do most of their damage with undeneath routes to WR Wes Welker and TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The Patriots offense almost works in reverse, with the tight ends often stretching the field vertically, opening up the underneath routes for Welker and Deion Branch
New England Patriots
Overview: The Patriots are riding a ten game winning streak entering the Super Bowl. Their last loss? November 6th in Foxborough to the very same Giants they face on Sunday. New England boasts one of the premier offenses, as Rob Gronkowski had the single greatest statistical season for a tight end in NFL history. Tom Brady finished with the second most passing yards in NFL history (behind Drew Brees), and Wes Welker again led the NFL with 122 receiving yards. The Patriots use a running back committee that includes Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Stevan Ridley and Kevin Faulk, and have good secondary options in tight end Aaron Hernandez and Deion Branch.
Defensively, the Patriots finished 31st in the league in both total yards and passing yards allowed. Despite their propensity for giving up yards through the air, they still finished with an AFC-best 23 interceptions, and sacked opposing quarterbacks 40 times. Defensive tackle Vince Wilfork does a good job of clogging up the middle, and head coach Bill Belichick is one of the best in football at disguising coverages, which helps put his players in position to make plays. The pass rush will lean heavily on Mark Anderson (10.0 sacks), Rob Ninkovich (6.5) and Wilfork (3.5).
Kicker Steven Gostkowski was 27-32 on field goals during the season, including 10-13 from 40+ yards out. Punter Zoltan Mezko averaged 46.5 yards per punt, and had 24 of 57 punts downed inside the opponents 20 yard line. New England averaged 10.2 yards per punt return (1 TD) and 21.4 yards per kick return, while they allowed just 8.5 yards per punt return and 21.6 yards per kick return.
Injuries: The Pats lost key pass-rusher Andre Carter (10.0 sacks) in mid-December to a torn left quadriceps, which will put more pressure on the aforementioned pass-rushers to harass Eli Manning. Rob Gronkowski suffered a high-ankle sprain late in the Pats AFC Championship victory over the Ravens. While he is very likely going to play in the Super Bowl, how effective he'll be remains to be seen.
Keys to the Game
1) Protect Tom Brady: Brady was sacked just twice in their meeting earlier in the year, but did have to deal with consistent pressure throughout the game. In their Super Bowl loss in 2008, Brady was sacked six times. Brady is simply deadly with time to throw, so I expect the Patriots to frequently use their running backs to chip the Giants' defensive ends to help out the offensive line.
2) Third Down Conversions: The Patriots converted just 1/3 of their 15 third downs against the Giants in their regular season matchup. The Patriots can achieve this by running the ball on early downs to set up more manageable down-and-distance. If New England is able to avoid third and long, they can use their no-huddle to wear down the Giants pass rushers.
3) Disguise Coverage: Eli Manning has been playing as well as any quarterback in the league over the last couple months, and has perhaps the best receiving tandem in the league in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks (who didn't play in their regular season matchup due to injury). The Patriots had reasonable success against the Giants in the loss, but will need to do utilize well-disguised formations to try and confuse Manning and his pre-snap reads. If that Pats can create a little bit of confusion, Manning could very well make a game-changing mistake.
Game Breakdown
This game could very well play out similarly to the teams' two previous matchups (both Giants wins). It appears as though Eli Manning has a more favorable matchup against a Patriots defense that is vulnerable through the air, and will be without one of their top pass rushers. Brady will have to face a defense that's surrendering just 321 yards and 13 points per game this postseason, and has recorded total sacks in their previous three playoff games. I give a slight coaching edge to the Patriots, as Bill Belichick has three Super Bowl rings, and is probably a little bit better game-planner than Tom Coughlin.
Prediction
Giants 30, Patriots 23
The Giants once-beleaguered running game has found its stride in the playoffs, and Eli Manning has performed as consistently well as any quarterback in this years' postseason. New England will likely have their moments, but the Giants will hit Brady enough to keep him (slightly) out of rhythm, giving the Giants their second Super Bowl win over the Patriots since 2008.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
NFL Predictions: Conference Championships
Note: these predictions will be somewhat short since my computer crashed last night.
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots -
For Baltimore, their key to this game will be ball-control. The Patriots offense is too explosive for their offense to try and have to match score-for score. Expect coordinator Cam Cameron to use Ray Rice extensively, both as a runner and receiver to take pressure off of Joe Flacco. By doing this, it will allow the Baltimore defense to stay fresh, giving them enough energy to try and stop Brady, Welker, Gronkowski and the rest of a talented Pats offense.
For New England, look for the Patriots to use a lot of quick-hitting pass plays to Grinkowski, Hernandez and Welker to counter-act a ferocious Ravens pass rush. Expect to see Brady in shotgun formations almost exclusively to give him more time to throw.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 23. I expect Ray Rice to approach 150 total yards in the game, and the Ravens defense will keep them in the game, but the Patriots are simply playing too well on offense to fall short of a Super Bowl appearance.
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
Tom Coughlin will be looking for a second Super Bowl appearance, while the 49ers will be looking to get back for the first time since 1995.
The Giants are as hot as any team in the league, and have looked spectacular in wins over the Falcons and Packers. The key for New York to win this game will be getting pressure on 49ers quarterback Alex Smith. Smith was able to get into a rhythm early last week against the Saints, and was able to make a inch of big plays late to help the 49ers get a thrilling win.
For the 49ers, their key to the game will be establishing their running game early. If the offensive line is able to open up holes for Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter, Smith will be able to utilize play-action find open receivers in one-on-one coverage. Vernon Davis had a huge week against the Saints, so expect the Giants to key on him. Watch for Michael Crabtree to see a lot of single-coverage.
Prediction: 49ers 30, Giants 23. San Francisco should be able to disrupt Manning's rhythm early, and their offense will wear down the pass-rushers up front with a solid running game. Manning will still make some plays through the air, but the Giants won't be able to run the ball effectively against a stingy San Franciscofront seven, forcing Eli into taking one too many risks that will ultimately cost the, the game.
Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 5-3
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots -
For Baltimore, their key to this game will be ball-control. The Patriots offense is too explosive for their offense to try and have to match score-for score. Expect coordinator Cam Cameron to use Ray Rice extensively, both as a runner and receiver to take pressure off of Joe Flacco. By doing this, it will allow the Baltimore defense to stay fresh, giving them enough energy to try and stop Brady, Welker, Gronkowski and the rest of a talented Pats offense.
For New England, look for the Patriots to use a lot of quick-hitting pass plays to Grinkowski, Hernandez and Welker to counter-act a ferocious Ravens pass rush. Expect to see Brady in shotgun formations almost exclusively to give him more time to throw.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 23. I expect Ray Rice to approach 150 total yards in the game, and the Ravens defense will keep them in the game, but the Patriots are simply playing too well on offense to fall short of a Super Bowl appearance.
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
Tom Coughlin will be looking for a second Super Bowl appearance, while the 49ers will be looking to get back for the first time since 1995.
The Giants are as hot as any team in the league, and have looked spectacular in wins over the Falcons and Packers. The key for New York to win this game will be getting pressure on 49ers quarterback Alex Smith. Smith was able to get into a rhythm early last week against the Saints, and was able to make a inch of big plays late to help the 49ers get a thrilling win.
For the 49ers, their key to the game will be establishing their running game early. If the offensive line is able to open up holes for Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter, Smith will be able to utilize play-action find open receivers in one-on-one coverage. Vernon Davis had a huge week against the Saints, so expect the Giants to key on him. Watch for Michael Crabtree to see a lot of single-coverage.
Prediction: 49ers 30, Giants 23. San Francisco should be able to disrupt Manning's rhythm early, and their offense will wear down the pass-rushers up front with a solid running game. Manning will still make some plays through the air, but the Giants won't be able to run the ball effectively against a stingy San Franciscofront seven, forcing Eli into taking one too many risks that will ultimately cost the, the game.
Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 5-3
Friday, January 6, 2012
NFL Wild Card Predictions
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans - Both teams are limping into the postseason, with Cincinnati having dropped five of their last eight games, and the Texans having fallen in three straight. In fact, the last game the Texans won was in Cincinnati in week fourteen. In that game, Houston overcame four turnovers and a 13-point halftime deficit thanks to surprisingly effective passing from a third-string quarterback in just his second career start.
For the Texans to record their first playoff win (at home no less), I believe they'll need to be willing to throw on first and second down, which will prevent the Bengals defense from over-loading the box on what they believe will be clear running downs for the #2 rushing offense in the league. The passing game should get a boost, as Andre Johnson played (albeit sparingly) in their week seventeen game against the Titans, and should be close to 100% for this contest.
As for the Bengals, they have yet to beat a playoff team in seven contests this season. The good news in that is that only one of those seven contests was anything more than a one-score loss (35-7 at Pittsburgh in week thirteen). Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has had a very solid year, and does a very good job of minimizing mistakes. Fellow rookie A.J. Green reached the Pro Bowl this year, and uses his athletic frame and great ball skills to already be among the elite deep ball threats in the league. The key for the Bengals is to establish their running game, setting up the deep play-action pass for A.J. Green, who at 6'4", 210 pound frame, is a physical mismatch for any corner in the league.
Prediction: Texans 20, Bengals 16. I see the Texans passing a little bit early to open up the running game for Arian Foster and Ben Tate, with T.J. Yates hitting a few timely passes on third down, fighting off a very game Bengals team to advance to the second round of the playoffs.
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints - In what could easily be the most exciting game of the NFL's postseason, it will have two of the top three passers in the league, Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees. Combined, the two threw for 10,514 yards during the regular season, as well as 87 touchdowns through the air.
For Detroit, there are two areas they need to be effective in to give themselves a chance to win: establishing the run and stopping the Saints passing game. In their week seventeen loss to the Packers, they allowed Aaron Rodgers' backup Matt Flynn to set Green Bay team records in passing touchdowns in a game (6), as well as passing yards in a game (480). The most frightening part of that is the fact that Green Bay was without their top wide receiver, Greg Jennings, who was nursing a sprained MCL. As good as Detroit's passing game has been, they'll need to have a presence in the running game in order to keep the Saints equally potent offense off the field, allowing their front four enough rest to get after Drew Brees.
On the season, New Orleans is 8-0 at home, scoring over 40 points per game, as well as racking up nearly 500 yards of offense per game. A large part of that is Drew Brees, who is now the all-time single season record holder for passing yards with 5,476. He has a great supporting cast around him, including wide receivers Marques Colston and Devery Henderson, running backs Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, as well as Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham. The key for New Orleans will be to protect Drew Brees, as in their three losses, Brees has been sacked nine times, whereas he was only sacked 15 times in their 13 wins.
Prediction: Saints 45, Lions 34. In what should be a shootout, the Saints have just too many weapons offensively, and are just too good at home, though the Lions will give the Saints pass defense a test, as Calvin Johnson will likely still get his numbers.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants - Both teams come into this game having won three of their last four games.
Michael Turner is the man that gets the Falcons offense rolling, rushing for 1,340 yards and 11 touchdowns. Despite the fact that the Falcons prefer to run the ball, their passing offense was even more effective, as Matt Ryan threw for 4,177 yards and 29 touchdowns on the year. Pass-catchers like receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones, along with tight end Tony Gonzalez give Ryan plenty of options when he drops back. The key for Atlanta is to contain the Giants receiving duo of Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, who combined for over 2,700 yards and 16 touchdowns.
The Giants are a team that relies heavily on QB Eli Manning, who threw for 4,933 yards and 29 touchdowns on the year. Manning is a very adept play-action passer, and with deep threats like Cruz and Nicks can stretch the field vertically better than most quarterbacks in the NFL. Their running game has not done well this season, ranking dead last in the league with an average of only 89.2 yards per game. Among the best weapons for the Giants is their pass rush, which totaled 48 sacks on the year. All of their defensive lineman are solid at pass-rushing, including second-year player Jason Pierre-Paul (16.5), Osi Umenyiora (9.0) and Justin Tuck (5.0). The key for New York will be two-fold: establishing the run and pressuring QB Matt Ryan.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Giants 24. Atlanta should be able to take advantage of a Giants defense that gives up far too many yards (376.4/game), as the Falcons aren't a team that typically beats themselves.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos - Both teams enter the postseason somewhat beat up, as the Steelers will be without RB Rashard Mendenhall, while the Broncos will be without starting safety and key defensive cog Brian Dawkins.
Pittsburgh hasn't really looked like a 12-4 team in recent weeks, their only convincing win coming over the 2-14 Rams in week sixteen. Ben Roethlisberger is still dealing with a high ankle sprain suffered in a week fourteen win over the Browns, and the team will also likely be without center Maurkice Pouncey, also injured in that game. Pittsburgh's defense has been good statistically, but has forced just 16 turnovers this season, far below their usual output. The key to this game for Pittsburgh will be to protect Roethlisberger, and their best option for that will be to get Mendenhall's replacement Isaac Redman and the running game going, keeping Broncos pass-rushers Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil at bay.
Denver has lost three straight games, and Tim Tebow has struggled with turnovers in those games. The Broncos have the number one rushing offense in the league, and Willis McGahee's resurgence has been a big part of their success. After taking over the starting role from Knowshon Moreno early in the season (Moreno is now on injured reserve), McGahee has been one of the league's better rusher. Tebow also does a great job of making plays with his legs, including a memorable game-winning touchdown run against the Jets. Denver's key to this game will be third down, as Tim Tebow has to be able to hit open receivers and keep the chains moving, as Denver doesn't have an offense that's built to come back from double-digit deficits.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Broncos 13. While the Steelers haven't looked great lately, the Broncos one-dimensional offense should be something that Steelers' defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is able to game-plan for, and the Steelers are almost always good for at least one or two explosive plays per game, and wide receivers Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are burners on the outside that have the potential to reach the end zone every time they touch the ball.
Regular Season: 169-87 (.660)
For the Texans to record their first playoff win (at home no less), I believe they'll need to be willing to throw on first and second down, which will prevent the Bengals defense from over-loading the box on what they believe will be clear running downs for the #2 rushing offense in the league. The passing game should get a boost, as Andre Johnson played (albeit sparingly) in their week seventeen game against the Titans, and should be close to 100% for this contest.
As for the Bengals, they have yet to beat a playoff team in seven contests this season. The good news in that is that only one of those seven contests was anything more than a one-score loss (35-7 at Pittsburgh in week thirteen). Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has had a very solid year, and does a very good job of minimizing mistakes. Fellow rookie A.J. Green reached the Pro Bowl this year, and uses his athletic frame and great ball skills to already be among the elite deep ball threats in the league. The key for the Bengals is to establish their running game, setting up the deep play-action pass for A.J. Green, who at 6'4", 210 pound frame, is a physical mismatch for any corner in the league.
Prediction: Texans 20, Bengals 16. I see the Texans passing a little bit early to open up the running game for Arian Foster and Ben Tate, with T.J. Yates hitting a few timely passes on third down, fighting off a very game Bengals team to advance to the second round of the playoffs.
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints - In what could easily be the most exciting game of the NFL's postseason, it will have two of the top three passers in the league, Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees. Combined, the two threw for 10,514 yards during the regular season, as well as 87 touchdowns through the air.
For Detroit, there are two areas they need to be effective in to give themselves a chance to win: establishing the run and stopping the Saints passing game. In their week seventeen loss to the Packers, they allowed Aaron Rodgers' backup Matt Flynn to set Green Bay team records in passing touchdowns in a game (6), as well as passing yards in a game (480). The most frightening part of that is the fact that Green Bay was without their top wide receiver, Greg Jennings, who was nursing a sprained MCL. As good as Detroit's passing game has been, they'll need to have a presence in the running game in order to keep the Saints equally potent offense off the field, allowing their front four enough rest to get after Drew Brees.
On the season, New Orleans is 8-0 at home, scoring over 40 points per game, as well as racking up nearly 500 yards of offense per game. A large part of that is Drew Brees, who is now the all-time single season record holder for passing yards with 5,476. He has a great supporting cast around him, including wide receivers Marques Colston and Devery Henderson, running backs Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, as well as Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham. The key for New Orleans will be to protect Drew Brees, as in their three losses, Brees has been sacked nine times, whereas he was only sacked 15 times in their 13 wins.
Prediction: Saints 45, Lions 34. In what should be a shootout, the Saints have just too many weapons offensively, and are just too good at home, though the Lions will give the Saints pass defense a test, as Calvin Johnson will likely still get his numbers.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants - Both teams come into this game having won three of their last four games.
Michael Turner is the man that gets the Falcons offense rolling, rushing for 1,340 yards and 11 touchdowns. Despite the fact that the Falcons prefer to run the ball, their passing offense was even more effective, as Matt Ryan threw for 4,177 yards and 29 touchdowns on the year. Pass-catchers like receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones, along with tight end Tony Gonzalez give Ryan plenty of options when he drops back. The key for Atlanta is to contain the Giants receiving duo of Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, who combined for over 2,700 yards and 16 touchdowns.
The Giants are a team that relies heavily on QB Eli Manning, who threw for 4,933 yards and 29 touchdowns on the year. Manning is a very adept play-action passer, and with deep threats like Cruz and Nicks can stretch the field vertically better than most quarterbacks in the NFL. Their running game has not done well this season, ranking dead last in the league with an average of only 89.2 yards per game. Among the best weapons for the Giants is their pass rush, which totaled 48 sacks on the year. All of their defensive lineman are solid at pass-rushing, including second-year player Jason Pierre-Paul (16.5), Osi Umenyiora (9.0) and Justin Tuck (5.0). The key for New York will be two-fold: establishing the run and pressuring QB Matt Ryan.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Giants 24. Atlanta should be able to take advantage of a Giants defense that gives up far too many yards (376.4/game), as the Falcons aren't a team that typically beats themselves.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos - Both teams enter the postseason somewhat beat up, as the Steelers will be without RB Rashard Mendenhall, while the Broncos will be without starting safety and key defensive cog Brian Dawkins.
Pittsburgh hasn't really looked like a 12-4 team in recent weeks, their only convincing win coming over the 2-14 Rams in week sixteen. Ben Roethlisberger is still dealing with a high ankle sprain suffered in a week fourteen win over the Browns, and the team will also likely be without center Maurkice Pouncey, also injured in that game. Pittsburgh's defense has been good statistically, but has forced just 16 turnovers this season, far below their usual output. The key to this game for Pittsburgh will be to protect Roethlisberger, and their best option for that will be to get Mendenhall's replacement Isaac Redman and the running game going, keeping Broncos pass-rushers Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil at bay.
Denver has lost three straight games, and Tim Tebow has struggled with turnovers in those games. The Broncos have the number one rushing offense in the league, and Willis McGahee's resurgence has been a big part of their success. After taking over the starting role from Knowshon Moreno early in the season (Moreno is now on injured reserve), McGahee has been one of the league's better rusher. Tebow also does a great job of making plays with his legs, including a memorable game-winning touchdown run against the Jets. Denver's key to this game will be third down, as Tim Tebow has to be able to hit open receivers and keep the chains moving, as Denver doesn't have an offense that's built to come back from double-digit deficits.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Broncos 13. While the Steelers haven't looked great lately, the Broncos one-dimensional offense should be something that Steelers' defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is able to game-plan for, and the Steelers are almost always good for at least one or two explosive plays per game, and wide receivers Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are burners on the outside that have the potential to reach the end zone every time they touch the ball.
Regular Season: 169-87 (.660)
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