2012/13 NFL Predictions: Divisional Round

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos
The Ravens were able to get a win in what was the final home game of linebacker Ray Lewis' career. Lewis has been the vocal and emotional leader of the Ravens since being drafted out of Miami (FL) in 1996, and his presence will be missed, not only on the field, but also in the locker room. Baltimore's passing game produced some big plays against the Colts, and will need to continue to do so in this game.
After their first-round bye, Denver should be well-rested and prepared, as the Broncos were the hottest team in the league, winning their last eleven games of the regular season. Peyton Manning hasn't had a lot of success in cold-weather playoff games, so the Broncos could use a heavy dose of Knowshon Moreno against a surprisingly pedestrian Ravens run defense.
The Broncos pass-rush, headed by Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, will keep Flacco under pressure for a lot of the game. The Ravens will also be going up against the #2 total defense and #4 scoring defense in the league this past season, which is no small task. To make matters worse, they're playing a rested team that plays nearly a mile-above sea level, so the Broncos will likely run a lot of no-huddle to keep the Ravens from substituting. Barring a Manning letdown, the Broncos move on the AFC Championship game.
Prediction: Broncos 27, Ravens 17.

2012 NFL Predictions: Wild Card Round

Cincinnati Bengals 24, Houston Texans 20.

Green Bay Packers 30, Minnesota Vikings 17.

Baltimore Ravens 28, Indianapolis Colts 23.

Seattle Seahawks 28, Washington Redskins 20.

Last Week: 10-6 (.625)
Season: 149-91 (.621)

Grading the 2008 NFL Draft: NFC North

In part three of my eight part series, I'll be re-grading the 2008 NFL Draft, team-by-team. Below are links to previous editions.
NFC South, NFC West

Chicago Bears
1(14)   - OT Chris Williams, Vanderbilt
2(44)   - RB Matt Forte, Tulane
3(90)   - DT Marcus Harrison, Arkansas
4(120) - S Craig Steltz, LSU
5(142) - CB Zackary Bowman, Penn State
5(158) - TE Kellen Davis, Michigan State
7(208) - DE Ervin Baldwin, Michigan State
7(222) - G Chester Adams, Georgia
7(243) - LB Joey LaRocque, Oregon State
7(247) - OT Kirk Barton, Ohio State
7(248) - WR Marcus Monk, Arkansas
Thoughts: Williams started out at left tackle with mixed results, but performed much better after being moved to guard this past season. Forte has emerged as one of the best backs in the league, and is scheduled to hit free agency (though Bears GM Jerry Angelo will likely franchise tag him before the February 20th deadline). Davis took over the starting spot after Greg Olsen's departure before the start of the season. Bowman (largely a nickel) and Steltz (spot starter in 2011) have been solid in the secondary and on special teams, while Harrison played three sub-par seasons before being a preseason roster cut. Baldwin, Adams, Barton and Monk never made an appearance in a regular season NFL game, while Joey LaRocque played on special teams for the Bears in 2008. A Pro Bowl player, and four other solid contributors made this a solid draft.
Grade: B-

Detroit Lions
1(17)   - OT Gosder Cherilus, Boston College
2(45)   - LB Jordon Dizon, Colorado
3(64)   - RB Kevin Smith, Central Florida
3(87)   - DT Andre Fluellen, Florida State
3(92)   - DE Cliff Avril, Purdue
5(136) - WR Kenneth Moore, Wake Forest
5(146) - FB Jerome Felton, Furman
7(216) - DT Landon Cohen, Ohio
7(218) - S Caleb Campbell, Army
Thoughts: Cherilus has been a solid starter since his rookie season, but still struggles with some of the better defensive ends in the league. The gem of this class is no doubt Cliff Avril (11.0 sacks, 6 FF in 2011), who will no doubt be getting a significant pay-raise this offseason. Dizon and Smith both struggled with injuries in their pro career (Dizon is now out of football, Smith was not tendered a contract to start 2011, but re-signed with Detroit midseason), and Fluellen has just 44 career tackles. Felton is currently on the Colts roster after three seasons in Detroit, while Moore was most recently with the Steelers (but has seen minimal in-game action). Cohen hasn't seen the field much, and has played for three teams in four seasons. Caleb Campbell was a feel-good story of the draft, but had to return to active duty before latching on with the Chiefs in 2010. Cherilus and Avril are the only consistent contributors on this team, which would have a higher grade were it not for the injury issues for Dizon and Smith.
Grade: C+

Green Bay Packers
2(36)   - WR Jordy Nelson, Kansas State
2(56)   - QB Brian Brohm, Louisville
2(60)   - CB Patrick Lee, Auburn
3(91)   - TE JerMichael Finley, Texas
4(102) - DE Jeremy Thompson, Wake Forest
4(135) - OT Josh Sitton, Central Florida
5(150) - OT Breno Giacomini, Louisville
7(209) - QB Matt Flynn, LSU
7(217) - WR Brett Swain, San Diego State
Thoughts: Two of the Packers' top three receiving weapons were taken in this draft, which helps offset the disappointing picks of Brohm and Lee (now out of the league). Thompson washed out due to a neck injury, while Giacomini spent three seasons as a reserve lineman before getting 8 starts for the Seahawks after injuries hit their offensive line. Matt Flynn will likely be a big free agent target after settting Packer single-game records for passing yards and touchdowns in place of the resting Aaron Rodgers. Sitton has been very good since moving inside to guard, while Swain was a practice squad player before being waived prior to the season. The Brohm and Lee picks are the only thing preventing Green Bay from being an A+.
Grade: A-

Minnesota Vikings
2(43)   - S Tyrell Johnson, Arkansas State
5(137) - QB John David Booty, Southern California
5(152) - DT Letroy Guion, Florida State
6(187) - C John Sullivan, Notre Dame
6(193) - WR Jayman Johnson, Jackson State
Thoughts: Johnson started 22 games in his first two seasons, but has been relegated to largely a special-teamer the past two years. Booty never saw the field in his career, while Guion has been a career backup. Sullivan has started 45 games the past three years, and done a great job replacing future Hall of Famer Matt Birk at the pivot. Johnson spent two seasons on the Vikings' practice squad before breaking his thumb in his first game in 2010. The team got great value out of Sullivan, and a couple of depth players despite only having one pick in the first four rounds.
Grade: C+

NFL Playoffs: Division Round Predictions

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers - With the Saints coming off a 45-28 win over the Detroit Lions on Wild Card weekend, they now hit the road for a game against one of the league's stingiest defenses in the San Francisco 49ers, who just finished their bye week.
For the Saints, the key to their offense as always is the arm of quarterback Drew Brees, who threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns in their last game. While the Saints have the #1 pass offense and total offense in the league, as well as the #2 scoring offense, the team tends to struggle much more away from the Superdome. This season, they are 5-3 on the road, dropping games to Green Bay (15-1, no shame in that), Tampa Bay (4-12) and St. Louis (2-14). My keys to this game are:
For New Orleans: Protect Drew Brees. In two of their three losses (Green Bay and St. Louis), New Orleans' Brees was sacked a total of nine times. The 49ers have a good pass rush, led by rookie Aldon Smith's 14.0, and if a team is able to disrupt Brees' rhythm, they'll likely find themselves with a chance to win when the fourth quarter rolls around.
For San Francisco: Red Zone Efficiency. The one glaring area of concern for me with the 49ers is their lack of touchdowns when in the red zone. San Francisco was 30th in the league converting their red zone opportunities into six points (just under 41%), and against a team like the Saints, you can't afford to settle for three points. If San Francisco is able to put the ball into the end zone on sustained drives, they'll have a very good chance to win.
For Both Teams: Convert third down. The Saints finished the league first in that category at a whopping 57% conversion rate, while the 49ers finished next to last, converting only 29% of their third downs. If San Francisco wants to have a chance against the Saints, they'll need to improve upon that number. Sustained drvies lower the amount of possessions in a game, and it also would keep their defense rested, which is a good thing, because they'll need to be fresh against such an explosive team like New Orleans.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 27, New Orleans Saints 24. The 49ers will find success on the ground, and Alex Smith will convert a few big third downs to keep the chains moving to win the game, as the Saints road struggles continue, as the franchise has yet to win a playoff game on the road.

NFL Power Rankings: Week Seventeen

Coming into the last week of the regular season, we've seen teams far exceed expectations (the Bengals and 49ers come to mind), as well as teams that have laid massive eggs (Eagles' fans would likely agree). Here are the results of my final regular season power rankings.

32. St. Louis Rams (2-13) - I really expected the Rams to take another step towards respectability this season, but injuries along the offensive line led to QB Sam Bradford battling injuries through most of the year, and their rush defense has been absolutely terrible. While they'll still need an Indianapolis win to avoid getting the #1 pick, no team is playing worse than the Rams right now.
31. Minnesota Vikings (3-12) - The Vikings got a road win against the Redskins this past week, but lost Adrian Peterson for the finale with a torn ACL and MCL. Toby Gerhart has played fairly well in AP's absense, but there could be a QB controversy, as Joe Webb has arguably out-performed first-round pick Christian Ponder at quarterback.
30. Indianapolis Colts (2-13) - The Colts have now won two straight following their come-from-behind win over the AFC South champion Houston Texans. This next week could be the last time we see WR Reggie Wayne in a Colts uniform, but if Peyton Manning is able to return healthy, you have to believe owner Jim Irsay will try to keep him around a little while longer, as he's still an effective receiver in this league.

NFL Power Rankings: Week Fifteen

32. Indianapolis Colts (0-13) - The Ravens dominated the Colts this past week, and have to play teams fighting for a playoff berth in the Titans and Texans the next two weeks. Their best chance at avoiding dubious history is their finale against the Jaguars in Jacksonville.
31. St. Louis Rams (2-11) - After falling to the Seahawks on Monday night, the Rams have games against the Bengals, Steelers and 49ers to close out the season. The team can't protect the quarterback, and need another receiving threat to play alongside Brandon Lloyd.
30. Minnesota Vikings (2-11) - The Vikings had a chance to beat Detroit with one play left from the Lions one-yard line, but Joe Webb was sacked to end the game. Even without Adrian Peterson, the team still hung with Detroit, but you can't turn the ball over six times and expect to win. It'll be interesting to see if Ponder remains the starter at quarterback, or whether Joe Webb will close the season running the offense.
29. Tampa Bay Buccanneers (4-9) - For a while it looked as though Tampa was going to be able to play up to their potential, as they raced out to a 14-0 lead on Jacksonville. Sadly, they allowed 41 straight points and fell to the 4-9 Jaguars. This team is not playing smart football, and appears to be looking forward to some time off in about three weeks.

Projecting the Playoffs: NFC

I think there's little doubt that, to this point in the season, the NFC has stronger teams in contention for the playoffs than the AFC. That also makes it somewhat more difficult to project, in that there may potentially be a 10-win team that misses out on the playoffs (like the 2010 Bucs). If the playoffs started today, the seeding would be as follows.

1. Green Bay Packers (10-0) - Bye
2. San Francisco 49ers (9-1) - Bye
6. Chicago Bears (7-3) @ 3. New Orleans Saints (7-3) *
5. Detroit Lions (7-3) @ 4. Dallas Cowboys (6-4) **
In the Hunt: Atlanta Falcons (6-4), New York Giants (6-4), Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)

* New Orleans wins the tie-breaker over the Bears due to better division win percentage
**Dallas hosts Detroit despite having a worse record because of winning the NFC East