Oakland Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons
The Raiders should be well-rested and prepared coming off of their bye week. The offense has done a very good job of taking care of the football, turning it over just twice through their first four games. The team has struggled to run the football, averaging just 60.8 yards per game, which puts a lot of pressure on the passing game. Quarterback Carson Palmer has played solidly this season (270.3 yards, 1.25 TD, 0.5 INT per game) despite the receiving corps being less than healthy. On defense, the secondary has struggled against the pass, allowing 9 touchdowns without an interception. This is predicated on a soft pass rush which has totaled just three sacks.
Atlanta continues to win, as they were able to defeat a scrappy Redskins team this past week. Of concern has been the teams' inability to consistently run the football, as they had just 83 yards on 28 carries this past week, and stand just 21st in the league in yards per game (94.8). The good news is that Matt Ryan (1,507 yards, 13 TD, 3 INT) has continued to be productive even with wide receiver Julio Jones hampered some by a lacerated hand. The defense continues to pressure the quarterback (13 sacks), and the secondary has intercepted nine passes (2nd in NFL) while allowing just 5 touchdown passes.
The potential return of wide receiver Denarius Moore should boost the passing game of Oakland, but the team is going to struggle immensely to stop the passing attack of the Falcons.
Prediction: Falcons 31, Raiders 13.
Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens
Tony Romo is off to the worst start of his career (5 TD, 8 INT), as well as the worst single-game performance of his career (1 TD, 5 INT) against the Bears. Part of his struggles can be attributed to both Jason Witten's slow recovery from a spleen injury, as well as Dez Bryant's severe case of the "dropsies". I'd also like to see more of DeMarco Murray on the ground, as the lack of offensive balance has placed a lot of pressure on both the passing game and the defense. On defense, DeMarcus Ware has five of Dallas' nine sacks on the season, but the team still ranks fourth in yards allowed (277.5 yards per game).
Baltimore nearly lost a sloppy road game against the Chiefs, putting up just nine points against a porous Chiefs defense. Quarterback Joe Flacco has still struggled with consistency, and completed less than 50 percent of his passes for just 187 yards and an interception in the win. The good news is the team got Ray Rice more involved in the running game, and the team needs to lean more on Rice to consistently beat good teams. The Ravens defense is just 24th in the league in yards allowed, but continues to force turnovers (6 INT, 3 fumbles, 2 defensive touchdowns).
The Cowboys will have a chance with their stubborn defense, but I don't see Baltimore playing a poor game in back-to-back weeks.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Cowboys 17.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati's vertical passing game was kept in check, and the running game wasn't able to produce enough big plays in their loss to the Dolphins. Andy Dalton will need to do a better job protecting the ball, as his two second half interceptions led to seven points, and his second sealed the game for Miami late. To date, the Bengals rank 31st in the league in 3rd down conversion percentage (24.3%), and will need to improve that against a Browns defense that gives up a lot of yards.
The rookies in Cleveland have taken their lumps, but the Browns could be without several receiving options for quarterback Brandon Weeden. Wide receivers Josh Gordon and Mohammed Massaquoi will both likely be out this Sunday, further adding to concern about the Browns offense. Expect the Browns to try and pound the ball more with Trent Richardson against a Bengals team that's allowed 118.2 yards per game and seven rushing touchdowns.
The Browns will get back cornerback Joe Haden, and I'll be watching his matchup with A.J. Green.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Browns 20.
St. Louis Rams @ Miami Dolphins
Defensive ends Robert Quinn and Chris Long made life difficult for Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals offense, removing Arizona from the ranks of the undefeated last Thursday. The team still has a ways to go offensively, as Steven Jackson is averaging a pedestrian 3.5 yards per carry. St. Louis will also miss Danny Amendola, who injured his shoulder against Arizona and will miss at least the next month or so because of that.
Miami got a big road win against 2011 playoff team Cincinnati, as they were able to force three Bengals turnovers. The teams' success on offense will hinge largely on the running game, as Ryan Tannehill has been forced to throw more than head coach Joe Philbin would like. Despite trading away Brandon Marshall, receivers Brian Hartline and Davone Bess provide the passing game with reliable possession receivers, and Hartline in particular has been a huge surprise.
St. Louis has exceeded expectations to this point of the season, but the loss of Amendola and shaky pass protection against Cameron Wake and the Dolphins defense will be the deciding factor in the game.
Prediction: Dolphins 21, Rams 16.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets
Reggie Wayne had a career day, and the Colts were able to overcome an 18 point halftime deficit to beat the Packers 30-27. There's little doubt that the team was motivated to play well for first year head coach Chuck Pagano, who's undergoing treatment for cancer. The team will miss running back Donald Brown, and will look to Vick Ballard to provide a spark on the ground.
The Jets are clearly in turmoil, as much-maligned quarterback Mark Sanchez has just a 55.5 quarterback rating the past four games, with just three touchdowns and a completion percentage of just 43.9. Further hurting the passing game was the foot injury that landed top receiver Santonio Holmes, which landed him on injured reserve. With a defense that has looked old at times this season, and horrendous production out of the running game, the Jets are a team that is clearly in disarray.
I just don't like the direction New York is going, and Luck should be productive against a secondary that's without Darrelle Revis.
UPSET OF THE WEEK!!!!!! Prediction: Colts 23, Jets 17.
Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles
A 1-3 start has dampened the spirits of many Lions fans that was heightened after a return to the playoffs in 2011. Defenses have keyed on stopping the vertical passing game, and while Calvin Johnson has averaged over 100 yards per game, he's recorded just one touchdown, and has seen a 2.9 yards per reception drop from last season. Defensively, the team has yet to record an interception through the first quarter of the season, but does rank 9th in total defense. The pass rush also hasn't been as fearsome, averaging 2.5 sacks per game.
The Eagles offense is ranked 11th in total yards, but has averaged just 16.0 points per game in large part due to an alarmingly high turnover total. Tight end Brent Celek is having a career resurgence in 2012, averaging 64.8 yards per game, and DeSean Jackson is bouncing back from a poor 2011 as well. On defense, the pass rush has just seven sacks on the season, but the team has been forcing turnovers well, including six interceptions.
The Lions aren't a great team outdoors, and the Eagles running game should find some success against Detroit's run defense. Also, look for Philadelphia to keep Calvin Johnson bracketed at all times.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Lions 17.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Matt Cassel struggling (and now injured), the team will turn to backup Brady Quinn to run the offense. Quinn hasn't had much success in his career, but is likely the most popular Chief this week, as everyone always loves the backup quarterback when the starter is struggling. The defense has also allowed 29 points per game, in large part due to the high amount of turnovers by Cassel, as well as an inability to force turnovers (4).
The Buccaneers have been a game team all season, with all three of their losses coming by seven points or less. The team is surrendering a lot of yards (419.0 per game), with the vast majority coming from their league-worst passing defense (345.3). The offense also doesn't put up a lot of yards, but does a reasonably good job of taking care of the football, averaging just 1 turnover per game.
UPSET OF THE WEEK PART 2!!!!! Prediction: Chiefs 24, Buccaneers 23.
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
Chan Gailey's team has been outscored by a combined 87-10 the past six quarters of football, and last week allowed the 49ers to rack up 300+ yards both passing and rushing. Defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt needs better performances from anyone not named Kyle Williams, as free agent Mario Williams has totaled just 1.5 sacks through five games. Ryan Fitzpatrick will also need C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson to produce more in the running game, which will keep Fitzpatrick (9 INT) from having to take too many chances through the air.
The Cardinals couldn't protect Kevin Kolb against the Rams, as the offensive line surrendered nine sacks in last Thursday's loss. Running back Ryan Williams joins Beanie Wells on injured reserve, meaning an already beleaguered ground game will now be turned over to LaRod Stephens-Howling and William Powell.
The Bills seem to be in a tailspin right now, and Arizona should have success through the air as long as the offensive line keeps Kolb (somewhat) upright.
Prediction: Cardinals 26, Bills 20.
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
The Patriots offense is simply frightening to play right now, as the team now has a balanced attack with the emergence of running back Stevan Ridley (490 yards, 4 TD). The team could also benefit from the return of tight end Aaron Hernandez, who has missed the past three games. Defensively, New England is somewhat vulnerable in the passing game, as they've allowed 290.0 yards per game, but they are averaging 1.2 interceptions per game.
The Seahawks are extremely tough to play in Seattle, as "The 12th Man" crowd noise causes opposing offenses lots of problems. Seattle is #1 in total defense, and #2 in both rushing yards allowed and points allowed. The pass rush is also improved, with 16 sacks on the season. The offense is lacking the explosive play, and will need to open up the playbook more for rookie signal caller Russell Wilson, as teams are stacking the box against the team.
In a tough game, I see the Patriots doing just enough to overcome a scrappy Seahawks team.
Prediction: Patriots 23, Seahawks 20.
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
Ahmad Bradshaw's career game (200 yards) fueled the Giants win over Cleveland last week, which took pressure off of Eli Manning and the Giants passing game. Hakeem Nicks could miss another week, which means either Ramses Barden or Domenik Hixon to step up. On defense, the team has racked up eight interceptions, but could use better production out of the pass rush, as Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul have combined for just 1.5 of the teams' 8 sacks.
The 49ers absolutely dominated Buffalo this past Sunday, as the team used a balanced attack and a stifling defense to absolutely smother the Bills. The running game has been simply stellar this season, averaging a league-high 196.2 yards per game, as Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter are both averaging 5+ yards per carry. Defensively, the team combines elite run-stopping with a great pass rush, which makes life difficult for opposing offenses.
The Giants haven't played like Super Bowl champions this season, while the 49ers seem destined for another deep playoff run.
Prediction: 49ers 26, Giants 13.
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins
Christian Ponder continues to improve in his sophomore season, while Adrian Peterson spearheads the running game. Ponder's favorite target is clearly Percy Harvin, who is a great safety valve and produces great yards after the catch. The defense has totaled 14 sacks, but needs to create more turnovers, as they have just two interceptions.
The health of Robert Griffin III will be a big storyline this weekend, as he'll likely play after leaving last week's game with a concussion. Griffin could potentially be hesitant to scramble due to this, which means the team will need Alfred Morris and the running game to take pressure off of Griffin's shoulders. The defense has produced three touchdowns this season, but a so-so pass rush (8 sacks) and a vulnerable secondary have been problematic, as the defense misses Brian Orakpo.
The Vikings seem to be a legit threat for the NFC North crown, but will struggle to stop the Redskins offense.
Prediction: Redskins 28, Vikings 23.
Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans
Wide receiver Greg Jennings will miss this week's game, meaning the team will need Randall Cobb and James Jones to pick up the slack. The running game and pass protection are a major concern, as the lack of solid offensive line play can be attributed to the struggles in those categories. The defense also couldn't stop the rebuilding Colts offense last week, surrendering 27 second-half points to a rookie quarterback. There is a very real possibility that the Packers could miss the playoffs, and a loss here would make the playoffs a real reach.
The Texans continue to win, even if they're victory over the Jets wasn't as dominant as some expected. Along with San Francisco, the Texans could lay claim to the league's most complete team, as they can beat you with offense or defense. The Texans rank third in total defense and passing defense and fourth in scoring defense, while also being first in time of possession, third in scoring offense and sixth in rushing offense. Throw in the fact that team has a +9 turnover margin and has allowed just three sacks, and the Texans are a scary team to play.
The Packers will compete early, but the pass rush of Houston will make life difficult for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense.
Prediction: Texans 30, Packers 21.
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Peyton Manning was stellar in New England this past week, but the defense couldn't stop the Patriots offense last week. Manning has an 11-3 touchdown to interception ratio on the season, and Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are a great young receiving duo in the league. Willis McGahee and the running game will need to get back on track, as they struggled against the Pats. On defense, the team has allowed 9 passing touchdowns while just recording two interceptions.
The Chargers offense seems primed to break out at some point, as Ryan Mathews seems recovered from his shoulder injury (and case of early-season fumblitis), Robert Meachem broke out for two touchdowns last week and Antonio Gates has been relatively quiet this season. Defensively, the Chargers do a good job of forcing turnovers, and are especially stingy against the run, allowing just 74 yards per game on the ground.
The Broncos seem to have the better offense, but the Chargers have better offensive balance and are the better defensive team.
Prediction: Chargers 27, Broncos 24.
Last Week: 11-2 (.846)
Season: 46-25 (.648)
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