Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
Despite losing Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb to injury, the Ravens were able to hold off a game Cowboys team this past week. Even with those players healthy, the Ravens defense has simply been average, allowing 396.7 yards per game (26th in the league). The defense has done a good job of forcing turnovers (10), but also has struggled to get after opposing quarterbacks without LB Terrell Suggs, who could potentially return from his Achilles' injury this Sunday.
Houston got embarrassed at home in a loss to the Packers on Monday night, as the defense surrendered six passing touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers. Despite the loss, the Texans are still a great team, yet could use more help in the passing game. Andre Johnson is a Pro Bowl receiver, and Owen Daniels is an underrated pass-catcher, but the team lacks a true #2 receiver to take pressure off of Johnson. Defensive end J.J. Watt continues his hot start, as he added two more sacks to his league-leading total (now 9.5) this past week, and while it's still early, could have a good shot to break Michael Strahan's single-season record (22.5).
Baltimore tends to get away from their running game too much, and the defense has struggled against the run some this season. Despite being on a short week, the Texans get it done.
Prediction: Texans 24, Ravens 17.
Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams
The Packers got back on track in a big way in their road romp over the aforementioned Texans. WR Jordy Nelson caught three of Aaron Rodgers' six touchdown passes, and will need to continue to get production out of the passing game, as their running game is sub-par. On defense, the Packers are better in yards allowed from last year, and the pass rush has returned to its 2010 form. A part of that has been the success of rookies like LB Nick Perry and DT Jerel Worthy (2.0 sacks each), as well as CB Casey Heyward (3 interceptions).
The Rams offensive line is still struggling to protect third-year quarterback Sam Bradford (18 sacks) and misses WR Danny Amendola (separated shoulder), but has done enough to see the team have a 3-3 record. While this doesn't sound like much, the Rams haven't won more than three games in a year just once since the start of the 2007 season. The team also seems to have found the heir-apparent to replace Steven Jackson, as Daryl Richardson (246 yards, 5.2 per carry) has provided some explosive plays as the #2 guy in the backfield pecking order. Richardson (who went undrafted) beat out second round pick Isaiah Pead in training camp, and has done nothing to dissuade Jeff Fisher and the Rams coaching staff from giving him touches.
This is a classic "trap game" for Green Bay, and the team will struggle to protect Aaron Rodgers from a strong Rams pass rush. The problem for the Rams is that Green Bay also has a strong pass rush, as well as better offensive weapons.
Prediction: Packers 23, Rams 20.
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills
The Titans are coming off their best performance of the season in their home win over the Steelers on last Thursday. Chris Johnson (91 yards) was able to put up a solid performance in the win, and may be starting to turn the corner after back-to-back disappointing starts to the last two seasons. Matt Hasselbeck has also been steady in relief of the injured Jake Locker, and while he's not going to unseat Locker as the permanent starter, Hasselbeck provides a steadying influence in the pocket and the huddle.
Buffalo nearly gave their game against Arizona away after deciding to throw a Wildcat pass up by three points with less than three minutes to go, but Jay Feely missed the game-winning field goal at the end of regulation, and Jarius Byrd recorded his second interception of the game in overtime, and kicker Rian Lindell made the game-winner two plays later. Buffalo has gone to a more run-oriented game plan, as the combination of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson have taken pressure off the arm of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. The team also got big production from Mario Williams, who recorded two sacks in their last game.
Neither teams' defense has performed well this season, so whoever has more success against the run will take this one.
Prediction: Bills 30, Titans 24.
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts
Pat Shurmur and the Browns were able to end an eleven game AFC North losing streak with their win over Cincinnati. Trent Richardson did leave the game early last week, but should be good to play this week, as balance in play-calling will only help Brandon Weeden, who played well against the Bengals secondary last week. The team was also able to get pressure on Andy Dalton, and forced three second-half turnovers in the win.
The Colts were brought back to earth last week by the Jets, as the defense wasn't able to stop Shonn Greene and the New York running game. Andrew Luck was under constant pressure from the pass rush, which caused his throws to be off-target (50% completions, 2 INT), and Antonio Cromartie held Reggie Wayne in check for much of the game. The running game will also need to be more effective, as Vick Ballard did little to unseat the injured Donald Brown.
In what will be a tight game, I think a healthy Trent Richardson could be enough to put the Browns on top.
Prediction: Browns 19, Colts 17.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After their bye week, the team will be getting a boost in the return of linebacker Jonathan Vilma. Vilma was on the PUP list to start the season, and the defense has been hurting without their captain on the field. New Orleans should also be well-rested to attack a Buccaneers defense that surrenders 312.2 yards per game (31st in NFL). The running game will have a tough time against the Bucs' 4th ranked run defense, so expect the offenses' success to hinge (as usual) on the arm of Drew Brees. Brees will miss TE Jimmy Graham, who is out for Sunday's game due to injury.
Tampa Bay beat up on the Chiefs this past Sunday, and Josh Freeman is starting to looks to be returning to his 2010 form, as he threw for 328 yards and 3 TD. The team has started seeing improved production from their receivers as well, as the arrival of Vincent Jackson has lightened the attention paid to third-year receiver Mike Williams.
Both teams give up far too many yards for my liking, but New Orleans should be able to keep Brees upright against a pass rush that has just 8 sacks on the season.
Prediction: Saints 27, Buccaneers 23.
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
Despite a disappointing loss to the Ravens, Dallas was finally able to get production out of the running game, racking up 227 yards in their loss. The team needs Dez Bryant to cure his concentration issues, as he dropped the tying two-point conversion attempt late after catching a touchdown pass the previous play. Jason Witten also continues to improve as he recovers from his spleen injury, and the defense is still one of the NFL's stingiest units.
Carolina's offense has been just pedestrian after a top-five finish in yards last season. Part of that can be attributed to the lack of production out of their running backs, as Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams have combined for just 280 yards on 73 carries (3.9 per carry). Defensively, the Panthers have been able to find success rushing the passer, but the team hasn't been able to stop the run on a consistent basis.
Dallas' defense will wreak havoc on Carolina QB Cam Newton, who hasn't had the sophomore season many had hoped for.
Prediction: Cowboys 28, Panthers 17.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
The Cardinals suffered a disappointing home loss to the Bills last week, costing themselves sole possession of first place in the NFC West. The teams' biggest weakness remains the lack of a running game, as QB Kevin Kolb was their leading rusher against the Bills. The offensive line also has to do a better job of protecting Kolb, as they've allowed a league-worst 28 sacks on the season. The defense is the strength, and the team ranks 3rd in the league in sacks (19), fourth in scoring defense (16.2) and 10th in total defense (329.3).
The Vikings weren't able to stop Robert Griffin III in their loss to the Redskins, as RGIII rattled off 138 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Minnesota QB Christian Ponder had three turnovers in the game, and will need to do a better job of taking care of the football this week. On defense, Minnesota is strong against the run, and although Griffin shredded them last week, they held productive running back Alfred Morris to just 47 yards on 16 carries, and are holding opponents under 100 yards per game on the ground.
Arizona will look to bounce back this week, but their poor pass protection and running game will be their downfall.
Prediction: Vikings 20, Cardinals 19.
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants
The Redskins rode a big performance on the ground from RGIII and capitalized on three Viking turnovers in their win this past week. Despite a sub-par performance, Alfred Morris has been a workhorse for Mike Shanahan this season, averaging 89.7 yards and 1 touchdown per game. Washington's defense really struggles against the pass ranking last in the league in passing yards allowed (328.3) and touchdown passes allowed (15).
New York saved their best performance of the season in their NFC Championship re-match, completely shutting down the San Francisco offense in a 26-3 road win. The pass rush was downright ferocious, racking up six sacks and forcing 49ers QB Alex Smith into three interceptions. Offensively, the team was able to find success on the ground, racking up 149 rushing yards and four and a half minute time-of-possession advantage.
There is the potential for a letdown after such a big game, but New York appears ready to make another run at a Lombardi trophy.
Prediction: Giants 28, Redskins 20.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Running back Shonn Greene (161 yards, 3 TD) helped the Jets running game rack up over 250 yards, while Mark Sanchez did well with his limited throwing opportunities as they were able to man-handle the Colts 35-9. The pressure won't subside for Sanchez after one turnover-free game, as the fanbase has become disenfranchised with the fourth year player, who has yet to post a season quarterback rating better than 80. The defense also found success, forcing four Colt turnovers and recording four sacks while limiting the Colts to 298 yards of offense.
New England gave up a 13-point fourth quarter lead and fell on the road to the Seahawks by one point. The running game that has provided balance to this point of the season struggled last week, totaling just 87 yards on 23 carries, forcing Tom Brady to throw a career-high 58 passes. The good news for the Patriots is that the Jets defense hasn't been as stingy against the run to this point. Rookie defensive end Chandler Jones leads all rookies in sacks (5), and the defense has done a good job defending the run (82.7 yards/game allowed).
After a disappointing performance, the Patriots should have no problem getting motivated for a home game against their division rival.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Jets 13.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders
The Jaguars are coming off a bye, and will hopefully have shored up some of the teams' litany of problems, including their poor rush defense (163 yards/game), pass rush (league-worst 3 sacks), scoring offense (13.0), total offense (241.2 yards/game) and passing offense (142.8 yards/game). Maurice Jones-Drew continues to be the team's lone bright spot, as he's leading the team in both receptions (14) as well as rushing yards (408).
The Raiders hung tough with the Falcons the entire game, falling on a last-second field goal by Matt Bryant. Denarius Moore is returning to form after battling through injuries early in the season, giving Carson Palmer a big weapon in the passing game. It also appears the team will get Darrius Heyward-Bey back this week, and will take some of the focus off of Moore. On defense, the team still lacks a pass rush (4 sacks), but the secondary recorded their first three interceptions of the season against the Falcons.
In a matchup of bad defenses, I'll take the Raiders at home, as Darren McFadden should be able to get on track against a poor Jags rush defense.
Prediction: Raiders 27, Jaguars 17.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers weren't able to establish a running game against the Titans last week, and allowed two late scoring drives in the loss. The team will need to get a running game going to keep defenses honest, as well as keep their defense fresh. Over the past decade, the Steelers have been one of the premiere defensive units in the league, and the team continues to be stingy in yards allowed (295.8 per game), but will need to do a better job against the pass, as they've allowed nine touchdown passes against just two interceptions.
A.J. Green has perhaps supplanted Calvin Johnson as the best receiver in the game. Green has had no fewer than five receptions and 58 yards in every game this season, and has failed to record a touchdown in just one contest. The offense will need Andy Dalton to take better care of the football, as he's tied for the second most interceptions in the league (9). Defensively, the team ranks second in sacks (20), as they are paced by DT Geno Atkins (6) and DE Michael Johnson (5). Despite the strong pass rush, the secondary has yet to capitalize, recording just two interceptions on the season.
In a big division game, I think the Bengals should have enough success through the air with Dalton-to-Green, and will make the Steelers pay for being a one-dimensional offense.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Steelers 20.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
The Lions were able to rally in the second half to shock the Eagles in Philadelphia. Despite the win, Detroit's passing game has continued to be pedestrian. Calvin Johnson continues to put up impressive numbers in receptions and yards, but has only found the end zone one time. The defense had success at rushing the passer last week, keeping Michael Vick under constant pressure and forcing him into turnovers.
The Bears will be well-rested off their bye, and possess the best defense in the league. The team has intercepted 13 passes and recorded 18 sacks in just five games this season, while limiting opponents to a league-best 14.2 points per game while scoring a league-high five defensive touchdowns. The offense has begun to turn the corner, as Brandon Marshall has bounced back after a so-so start to this season, while the running back tandem of Matt Forte and Michael Bush provide Chicago with a strong rushing attack.
The Lions will struggle to protect Matthew Stafford, and the Bears should be able to take advantage of a Detroit team that lacks a consistent running game.
Prediction: Bears 23, Lions 14.
Last Week: 4-9 (.308)
Season: 50-34 (.595)
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