2012 NFL Predictions: Week Five

Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Eagles perhaps played their best game all season, but were still just a missed Jay Feely field goal away from losing. On the positive side, the Eagles played with more offensive balance against the Giants than any game this season, in fact running the ball (36 attempts) more than throwing (30). Not coincidentally, the Eagles also got the best performance of the season out of quarterback Michael Vick, as establishing the running game allowed him to find more open passing lanes. On defense, the team has forced eight turnovers (6 INT, 2 fumbles) and rank sixth in the league in total yards (298.3/game), but have yet to repeat their 2011 success in the pass rush.
The Steelers should be well-rested following their bye, and appear likely to have both safety Troy Polamalu and linebacker James Harrison suit up for the first time together this season. Pittsburgh's fifth ranked defense has been stingy on yards allowed, but is having the same trouble they did in 2011 at forcing turnovers. On offense, the team could soon see Rashard Mendenhall return to help a struggling running game, which would take pressure off of Ben Roethlisberger and the passing game.
The Eagles perhaps have more talent on paper, but I trust Roethlisberger's decision-making more than Vick's, and their defense should be able to bottle up the running game.
Prediction: Steelers 24, Eagles 17.




Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts
Green Bay's offense has been largely pedestrian this season, ranking 20th in total yards (333.5) and points (21.3) per game. Aaron Rodgers has missed top target Greg Jennings (12-78-1), whose production has dwindled due to a nagging groin injury. The running game has also struggled, but running back James Starks could begin to take touches from Cedric Benson (64-228-1), who has been marginal after signing with the team this past offseason. On defense, the defense has been much better in 2012, which is in direct correlation with better production out of their pass rush (14 sacks, 4th in NFL).
Indianapolis head coach Chuck Pagano will miss some time battling cancer, meaning that offensive coordinator Bruce Arians will take over those duties on an interim basis. The Colts will be coming off their bye week, and know the key to stopping them will be generating pressure on Rodgers. The team will also need to give Andrew Luck time to throw, as the running game (21st in the league) will need to produce better results. Look for Luck to utilize his backs and tight ends in the short passing game early to offset the Packers' pressure.
Green Bay hasn't looked great this season, but the Colts pass defense should be vulnerable enough for Rodgers to exploit, even if Jennings doesn't play.
Prediction: Packers 30, Colts 17.

Cleveland Browns @ New York Giants
An 0-4 start wasn't entirely unexpected, as the team features a rookie quarterback, and have played the team has played Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Buffalo and Baltimore to open the season. Trent Richardson has produced on offense (86.0 yards, 1 TD per game), but the team needs more from its receiving corps, as the team's leading receiver has just 151 yards through four games. On defense, the team has been able to get after the quarterback (13 sacks) and make plays on the ball (6 interceptions), but still give up a lot of yards (403.3 yards).
It has been the Eli Manning show for the Giants, as he's racked up 1,320 yards and seven touchdowns this season, even as receiver Hakeem Nicks has missed the past two weeks. In their losses (Dallas and Philadelphia), the team has struggled to stop the run, allowing an average of 167 yards per game on the ground. While the team has great pass-rushers, their up-field pursuit of the quarterback leaves them vulnerable in the running game.
The Giants can't afford to drop this game at home, and even though they may be without Hakeem Nicks again, the team should be able to put up points against the Browns, even though Trent Richardson should be able to approach 100 rushing yards.
Prediction: Giants 28, Browns 19.

Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Redskins
Matt Ryan has put himself squarely in the early-season MVP discussion, tossing 11 touchdown passes against just 2 interceptions for a league-best 112.1 quarterback rating. The Falcons pass-blocking has been sub-par this season, as Ryan has been sacked 11 times, and the running game could produce more (97.8 yards/game) . Atlanta's defense has been very tough in the passing game, racking up 10 sacks and 7 interceptions (3rd in NFL), but they could stand to be better against the run (146.3/game).
The Redskins are the #1 running team in the league, as Alfred Morris (82-376-4) and Robert Griffin III (39-252-4) give a bit of "thunder-and-lightning" feel, even though Griffin is a quarterback. Griffin has just two turnovers this season, and is completing 69.4% of his passes, even though top receiver Pierre Garcon has missed the past two games. The team will need the offense to continue producing, as they are vulnerable without two of their top front-seven members (Adam Carriker, Brian Orakpo), who both are on injured reserve.
Atlanta will have their work cut out for them against a productive Redskins offense, but the lack of a pass rush should allow Ryan to have another big game through the air.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Redskins 24.

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Dolphins weren't able to hold on to their 13-point halftime lead against the Cardinals, falling in overtime 24-21. Through four games, the team has been surprisingly dependent on rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has averaged 35.8 pass attempts and 261.5 yards per game. Wide receiver Brian Hartline had his official coming-out party against Arizona, catching 12 passes for 253 yards (an NFL high this season) and a touchdown. While he doesn't possess breakaway speed, elite size or athleticism, Hartline is a solid route-runner that's adept at finding soft spots in zone coverages.
For Cincinnati, the team has continued to get steady production from running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but the bread-and-butter of this team is the passing game. Andrew Hawkins has emerged as a nice option opposite A.J. Green, and has recorded at least 39 receiving yards in every game this season. The Bengals still have an excellent pass-rush, leading the league entering week four with 16 sacks.
The Dolphins need to get a more balanced effort on the ground to keep the Bengals pass-rushers at bay, but the Miami secondary isn't particularly strong, and will struggle to defend the passing attack of Cincinnati.
Prediction: Bengals 21, Dolphins 13.


Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore looked less than dominant against the Browns a week and a half ago, but have had plenty of to to prepare for the Chiefs. For as long as I can remember, Baltimore has always been a run-first team, but has seen a shift this season to a more pass-happy offense. With Joe Flacco now in his fifth full season as a starter, coach John Harbaugh appears to have put his faith in his quarterback, opening up the playbook. The team has the weapons to do so, with possession receiver Anquan Boldin, second-year deep threat Torrey Smith, tight ends Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta, as well as versatile running back Ray Rice.
Kansas City again looked terrible last week, and there have been calls by fans to see backup quarterback Brady Quinn. While Quinn is no starting-caliber quarterback, he surely couldn't do a much worse job than Matt Cassel at taking care of the football. Cassel has lost ten turnovers through the first quarter of the season, consistently putting his defense in bad spots. If he doesn't fix those issues soon, head coach Romeo Crennel might have little choice but to change starters.
While the Chiefs are at home, there's little hope of Cassel being able to hold up against Batlimore's still-solid defense and emerging passing game.
Prediction: Ravens 27, Chiefs 17.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers
Thus far in 2012, Seattle has been known for three things: running the ball (Marshawn Lynch leads the league in rushing yards), stopping the run (62.8 yards allowed/game) and the Hail Mary that shouldn't have been against Green Bay. While the team has been with the running game on both sides of the ball, they'll need to get better play from Russell Wilson, whose three interceptions did in the 'Hawks in St. Louis this past week.
Carolina looked much better offensively in their close road loss to the Falcons, as Cam Newton appeared in vintage 2011 form, causing problems both through the air (215 yards, 2 TD) and on the ground (9 carries, 86 yards, TD). Where Carolina is going to struggle is on defense, as the team allows 134.8 yards per game on the ground (4.9/carry) and 259 yards per game through the air. The pass rush has been solid (12 sacks), but will need better play out of their secondary to be successful.
Seattle plans to use a heavy dose of Lynch in this game, and Wilson should be able to bounce back against a vulnerable Carolina defense.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Carolina 23.

Chicago Bears @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Bears played a great game against the Cowboys on Monday night, as the defense absolutely dominated the Cowboys, racking up five interceptions (two returned for TD). Jay Cutler also performed admirably against a Dallas team that ranked #1 against the pass entering the game, completing 75% of his passes for 275 yards and 2 TD, as the Cutler to Marshall combination (7-138-1) paid huge dividends.
The Jaguars struggled to protect quarterback Blaine Gabbert in their 27-10 loss to the Bengals, while Maurice Jones-Drew was limited to just 38 yards on 13 carries. Jacksonville's defense also had issues stopping a strong passing game, and will need to generate some sort of pressure (2 sacks through four games) on the quarterback to help a secondary that's played well considering how much time opposing quarterbacks are receiving.
While my faith in Cutler is questionable at best, the Bears defense will make life difficult for Jacksonville in every phase of the game.
Prediction: Bears 24, Jaguars 6.

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Denver was able to do anything they wanted on offense against the Raiders, racking up 503 total yards in a 31-point win. Peyton Manning continues to show he's fully recovered from multiple neck surgeries that caused him to miss the entire 2011 season, and has solid young receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. The defense allowed 8 touchdowns passing the first three weeks of the season, and will need its pass rush to come up big this week against Tom Brady.
The Patriots racked up 45 second half points to rout the Bills, exploiting Buffalo's decision to play out of almost exclusively the nickel package, as both Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden went over 100 yards on the ground. On defense, the team plays opportunistically, totaling six interceptions to this point of the season, but will need more consistent performance from their pass rush (7 sacks).
The Patriots seemed to have re-discovered their swagger with a blowout road win over a division opponent, and the emergence of a running game with Ridley will be enough.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Broncos 27.

Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers
It was a tale of two halves for the Bills last week, as they held a 14-point halftime lead against the Patriots. The wheels absolutely fell off in the second half as they fell by 24 at home. The pass rush that Buffalo spent so much money on this past offseason was largely non-existent last week, and the team needs better decision-making from Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown a league-high seven interceptions. Both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are go's for this game, so expect to see the Bills try and get something going on the ground, even though the sledding might be tough against the Niners defense.
San Francisco absolutely demolished the Jets 34-0 this past week, erasing any memories of their disappointing loss to the Vikings the previous week. The team went back to its offensive foundation, as they were able to rack up 245 yards on the ground, and the sub package of backup quarterback Colin Kaepernick (5 carries, 50 yards, TD) paid huge dividends.
The Bills will likely come out focused, but injuries to offensive linemen Kraig Urbik and Cordy Glenn will make life on offense even more difficult against perhaps the premiere defense in the NFL. Buffalo will compete, but the 49ers should still win fairly comfortably.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Bills 16.

Tennessee Titans @ Minnesota Vikings
After losing the quarterback competition to Jake Locker, Matt Hasselbeck will take over for the next couple of weeks as Locker nurses his injured non-throwing shoulder back to health. The Titans were finally able to get Chris Johnson going (141 yards), but had little else in a blowout loss to the Texans. The pass defense has got to be a huge concern for the Titans, as they've surrendered 10 touchdowns against just one intercepted pass.
Minnesota has been surprisingly solid this year, as Christian Ponder continues to play well. The return game came up huge in their victory over Detroit, accounting for both touchdowns as Percy Harvin took the opening kickoff 105 yards for a score, while Marcus Sherels returned a third-quarter punt 77 yards for a score. The defense has also been stout against the run, and has been good at rushing the passer.
I actually like Tennessee to have more success short-term with Hasselbeck at quarterback, but the Vikings have been solid in all three phases.
Prediction: Vikings 20, Titans 17.

San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints
The Chargers looked good against the Chiefs last week, and while that is not necessarily difficult to do this year, the road win had to instill confidence in a team that has struggled to win games away from sunny San Diego in recent years. Ryan Mathews will continue to see an increased workload after showing better ball security. On defense, the will have to get after Drew Brees, and needs to improve a pedestrian pass rush (7 sacks). The team is strong against the run, and does have a nose for the ball (5 INT).
New Orleans showed mettle in Lambeau and could have come away with a win were it not for a weird penalty sequence that eventually saw Garrett Hartley miss a 48-yard field goal that would've given the team a late lead. Brees and company were strong offensively, but need better performance out of the running game (45 yards on 19 carries).
Barring an epic run in the last 12 games, New Orleans will miss the playoffs this season. I do believe New Orleans gets in the win column this week.
Prediction: Saints 30, Chargers 24.

Houston Texans @ New York Jets
Houston will look to continue its solid play as they hit the road for a game against the Jets. Balance is the key in everything the Texans do, as Matt Schaub has been effective off of the play action. Arian Foster is among the elite running backs in the league, and Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels are both fully-healed from injuries that nagged them throughout the 2011 season. On defense, the team is strong against the run, has great secondary play, and the pass rush is amazing in Wade Phillips' 3-4 scheme.
The Jets looked absolutely terrible last week, and that loss really highlighted some of the teams flaws. The loss of top receiver Santonio Holmes will do little to ease fans' concerns about the play of quarterback Mark Sanchez, and the running game that used to among the NFL's best a few years ago is a shell of its former self, as Shonn Greene has been pedestrian as the feature back. The defense has looked old at times this year, and will sorely miss Darrelle Revis.
I think the Jets will give it their all and stay close in the first half, but the Texans are just too strong of a team right now.
Prediction: Texans 27, Jets 10.

Last Week: 10-4 (.714)
Season: 35-23 (.603)