Projecting the Playoffs: NFC

I think there's little doubt that, to this point in the season, the NFC has stronger teams in contention for the playoffs than the AFC. That also makes it somewhat more difficult to project, in that there may potentially be a 10-win team that misses out on the playoffs (like the 2010 Bucs). If the playoffs started today, the seeding would be as follows.

1. Green Bay Packers (10-0) - Bye
2. San Francisco 49ers (9-1) - Bye
6. Chicago Bears (7-3) @ 3. New Orleans Saints (7-3) *
5. Detroit Lions (7-3) @ 4. Dallas Cowboys (6-4) **
In the Hunt: Atlanta Falcons (6-4), New York Giants (6-4), Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)

* New Orleans wins the tie-breaker over the Bears due to better division win percentage
**Dallas hosts Detroit despite having a worse record because of winning the NFC East

Next, I'll break down each team's remaining schedule, and give my best guess as to how those games will turn out.

1. Green Bay Packers (10-0)
Home: Oakland (14), Chicago (16), Detroit (17)
Away: Detroit (12), New York Giants (13), Kansas City (15)
Outlook: The two games I see as trouble are (ironically) their next two games, road tilts at Detroit on Thanksgiving, and in week 13 against the Giants. I think they'll drop one of these two games (lets say the Lions), which would leave them 5-1 the rest of the way.
Projected Record: 15-1

2. San Francisco 49ers (9-1)
Home: St. Louis (13), Pittsburgh (15)
Away: Baltimore (12), Arizona (14), Seattle (16), St. Louis (17)
Outlook: I see as many as three potential losses on the schedule right now, but I'm going to project a 4-2 finish, with losses on the road against Baltimore and at home against Pittsburgh.
Projected Record: 13-3

3. New Orleans Saints (7-3)
Home: New York (12), Detroit (13), Atlanta (16), Carolina (17)
Away: Tennessee (14), Minnesota (15)
Outlook: The Saints are just 3-3 on the road this year, and could easily be two games worse than that. The good news is that most of their remaining tough games are at home. A loss to the Giants at home would give them a 5-1 record the rest of the way.
Projected Record: 12-4

4. Dallas Cowboys (6-4)
Home: Miami (12), New York (14), Philadelphia (16)
Away: Arizona (13), Tampa Bay (15), New York (17)
Outlook: I could see them winning as many as five of these games (I feel like a split of two games with the Giants is almost a given), but I'll conservatively project four wins, as they could potentially drop a trap game either at home to a resurgent Dolphins team or a road game against inconsistent Tampa Bay.
Projected Record: 10-6

5. Detroit Lions (7-3)
Home: Green Bay (12), Minnesota (14), San Diego (16)
Away: New Orleans (13), Oakland (15), Green Bay (17)
Outlook: Since I said it earlier, we'll give them a split with the Packers, but they're going to have trouble with both New Orleans and Oakland on the road, as well as a talented but under-achieving Chargers team. We'll say they drop a game to both the Chargers and Saints in there, too.
Projected Record: 10-6

6. Chicago Bears (7-3)
Home: Kansas City (13), Seattle (15)
Away: Oakland (12), Denver (14), Green Bay (16), Minnesota (17)
Outlook: I was very bullish on the Bears recently, but the broken finger of QB Jay Cutler will keep him out for the rest of the regular season. I think they'll win both home games, and have a very good chance to beat Denver and Minnesota, in large part due to their defense and underrated (and under-paid) RB Matt Forte. If they split the DEN and MIN games (lets say they drop the MIN game), that leaves them 3-3 the rest of the way.
Projected Record: 10-6

7. Atlanta Falcons (6-4)
Home: Minnesota (12), Jacksonville (15), Tampa Bay (17)
Away: Houston (13), Carolina (14), New Orleans (16)
Outlook: I like the Falcons to win all three of their remaining home games, and I actually see them beating Houston on the road (their run defense is 2nd in the NFL, and HOU will be without QB Matt Schaub), as well as Carolina. That'd put them 5-1 the rest of the way.
Projected Record: 11-5

8. New York Giants (6-4)
Home: Green Bay (13), Washington (15), Dallas (17)
Away: New Orleans (12), Dallas (14), New York Jets (16)
Outlook: They have perhaps the toughest remaining schedule of the potential postseason teams, with games against Green Bay and New Orleans, and a tough Jets team, as well as two games against current division leader Dallas. I think drop their home game against the Packers, as well as the road games against New Orleans and Dallas.
Projected Record: 9-7

So if all games go according to my projection, the playoff seedings would be as follows:

1. Green Bay Packers (15-1) - 1st Round Bye
2. San Francisco 49ers (13-3) - 1st Round Bye
3. New Orleans Saints (12-4)
4. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
5. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
6. Detroit Lions (10-6)*
*In this scenario, Detroit wins the tie-breaker over the Bears due to a better division record.
Out: Chicago Bears (10-6)*
Out: New York (9-7)

It'd be a great story for the Lions to make the playoffs this season, and I think the chances of that are much better with the injury to Jay Culter missing the Bears last six regular season games. The Packers and 49ers are playing the best (and most consistent) football in the league right now, but the Packers give up a lot of yards (391.8 per game, 30th in the NFL), and the 49ers don't get enough touchdowns in red zone opportunities (42.1% TD, 29th in the NFL). Tomorrow I'll have my AFC playoff projections posted, which will have the 13 teams within either two games of the division or wild-card.