Projecting The Playoffs: AFC

Today, I'm taking on the monumental task of trying to forecast the AFC playoff race, which has 13 of the 16 teams currently within two games of a Wild Card Spot. As it stands right now, here are the standings. I'm currently leaving out the Browns and Chiefs, as the playoffs are probably out of reach for both these teams (at least in part due to injuries).

1. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
2. Houston Texans (7-3)
3. New England Patriots (7-3)
4. Oakland Raiders (6-4)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
Currently Out: Denver Broncos (5-5), Tennessee Titans (5-5), New York Jets (5-5), Buffalo Bills (5-5), San Diego Chargers (4-6)

Like with yesterday's NFC projections, I'll break down each team's remaining schedule, and give my best guess as to how those games will turn out.
1. Baltimore Ravens
Home: San Francisco (12), Indianapolis (14), Cleveland (16)
Away: Cleveland (13), San Diego (15), Cincinnati (17)
Outlook: Keeping with yesterday's predictions, I do believe the Ravens will beat San Francisco (largely due to the fact they're much better at home than on the road), and Indianapolis and two Cleveland games should be wins. I think they split between SD and CIN (lets say SD wins). That'll put them at 5-1 the rest of the way.
Projected Record: 12-4

2. Houston Texans
Home: Atlanta (13), Carolina (15), Tennessee (17)
Away: Jacksonville (12), Indianapolis (14), Cincinnati (16)
Outlook: If QB Matt Schaub were healthy, I think there'd be a significant chance of them running the table. Since he's out, I see a home loss to Atlanta, as well as a week 16 road loss to the Bengals (who are very stout against the run).
Projected Record: 11-5

3. New England Patriots
Home: Indianapolis (13), Miami (16), Buffalo (17)
Away: Philadelphia (12), Washington (14), Denver (15)
Outlook: The schedule sets up favorably for the Pats, as only the Broncos and Dolphins are really playing good football right now, though the Eagles are still very talented despite their 4-6 record. I think all three home games will go their way, and for the sake of argument, lets say they lose on the road to Philadelphia to go 5-1 the rest of the way.
Projected Record: 12-4

4. Oakland Raiders
Home: Chicago (12), Detroit (15), San Diego (17)
Away: Miami (13), Green Bay (14), Kansas City (16)
Outlook: I see losses at home to Detroit, as well as the road game against Green Bay. I also think the Miami game will be difficult (but they have a good chance to win), as well as the San Diego game. So I'll say the Raiders go 3-3 the rest of the way, dropping contests to Green Bay, Detroit and San Diego.
Projected Record: 9-7

5. Pittsburgh Steelers
Home: Cincinnati (13), Cleveland (14), St. Louis (16)
Away: Kansas City (12), San Francisco (15), Cleveland (17)
Outlook: The tougheest games remaining will be at San Francisco and home for Cincinnati, but they will have a good chance to win them both. I'm going to say that they win out the rest of the regular season.
Projected Record: 13-3

6. Cincinnati Bengals
Home: Cleveland (12), Houston (14), Arizona (16), Baltimore (17)
Away: Pittsburgh (13), St. Louis (15)
Outlook: The worst I can see them going is 3-3, dropping competitive games to Pittsburgh, Houston and Baltimore. Were Leon Hall healthy at cornerback, this team might do a game better.
Projected Record: 9-7

7. Denver Broncos
Home: Chicago (14), New England (15), Kansas City (17)
Away: San Diego (12), Minnesota (13), Buffalo (16)
Outlook: A somewhat difficult next four weeks will go a long ways in determining whether this team will have a chance to catch Oakland in the AFC West. I do think the Broncos drop games to Chicago, San Diego and New England, and will be in tight games with both Minnesota and Buffalo. For the sake of argument, I see them dropping a very tight game against the Bills.
Projected Record: 7-9

8. Tennessee Titans
Home: Tampa Bay (12), New Orleans (14), Jacksonville (16)
Away: Buffalo (13), Indianapolis (15), Houston (17)
Outlook: Their schedule is somewhat favorable, as their remaining toughest game (New Orleans) will be played at home, and Houston is now hurting as they'll likely be without Matt Schaub for the week 17 game. I see wins over Tampa Bay, Indianapolis and Jacksonville.
Projected Record: 8-8

9. New York Jets
Home: Buffalo (12), Kansas City (14), New York Giants (16)
Away: Washington (13), Philadelphia (15), Miami (17)
Outlook: Despite a disappointing first ten games of the season, the Jets will have opportunities to fight their way back into the postseason. They'll likely win against Buffalo, Washington and Kansas City the next three weeks, but will have tougher games the last three weeks of the season. I have them also beating the Giants and Dolphins (though the Giants game will be an all-out war).
Projected Record: 10-6

10. Buffalo Bills
Home: Tennessee (13), Miami (15), Denver (16)
Away: New York (12), San Diego (14), New England (17)
Outlook: The Bills are now losers of three straight, though their 35-8 loss against the Dolphins was closer than the score might indicate. I think they'll drop all three road games, but should be able to win two home games (Miami, Denver) if they find more consistency on offense
Projected Record: 7-9

11. San Diego Chargers
Home: Denver (12), Buffalo (14), Baltimore (15)
Away: Jacksonville (13), Detroit (16), Oakland (17)
Outlook: I think they'll beat Denver and Buffalo at home, as well as road games against Jacksonville and Oakland. That leaves losses to Baltimore and Detroit, and a 4-2 finish to the season.
Projected Record: 8-8

So according to my predictions, here's how the AFC playoffs would look.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers: 13-3 (AFC North Champions)
2. New England Patriots: 12-4 (AFC East Champions)
3. Houston Texans: 11-5 (AFC South Champions)
4. Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (AFC West Champions)
5. Baltimore Ravens: 12-4 (Wild Card)
6. New York Jets: 10-6 (Wild Card)
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7. Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7
8. San Diego Chargers: 8-8
9. Tennessee Titans: 8-8
10. Buffalo Bills: 7-9
11. Denver Broncos: 7-9

Final Thoughts
I do think there's a strong likelihood that the Bengals do beat Houston, and if that were the case, the Bengals would make the playoffs over the Jets due to a better conference record. If Darren McFadden comes back healthy for the Raiders, then I think they could have a good chance to finish at 10 wins, and could even make a bit of a postseason run.