Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Week Eleven NFL Predictions

Jets @ Broncos - This could be a very interesting game, as the Jets defense has struggled somewhat against the run this year (116.0 yards/game, 15th in the league), and with Tebow starting, the Broncos have averaged 220. With Willis McGahee banged up and Knowshon Moreno out for the year (ACL), Lance Ball will be getting a good share of the reps at running back. Don't expect this game to be pretty, as both offenses have looked hideous at times this year. Prediction: Jets 20, Broncos 13.
Bengals @ Ravens - I incorrectly chose the Bengals to beat the Steelers this past week, but they gave the Steelers all they could handle, and were it not for injuries to Leon Hall (now on IR) and AJ Green (questionable with a shoulder injury this week), the outcome could have potentially been different. It'll be interesting to see which Ravens team shows up this week: The one thats lost games to Jacksonville and Seattle, or the one that swept the season series from Pittsburgh. Prediction: Ravens 23, Bengals 19.
Jaguars @ Browns - Another game that could be ugly, both offenses have looked stagnant, which will likely continue as both defenses are in the top 6 in the NFL (Jaguars 4th, Browns 6th). The Jaguars have limited weapons at receiver, so it'll be interesting to see how the Browns deal with heavy doses of Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jags ground game. Prediction: Jaguars 16, Browns 13.
Panthers @ Lions - Both teams will be looking to rebound from embarrassing losses this past week. The Carolina passing game was shut down, largely due to the fact that Steve Smith had to go up against a strong press corner in Cortland Finnegan. Meanwhile, Matt Stafford has been dealing with a bad hand, which showed as he threw 4 INT against the Bears. Look for the Lions to come out running the football against a Carolina defense that surrendered 172 yards rushing this past week. Prediction: Lions 27, Panthers 20.
Bucs @ Packers - Tampa Bay has been a fairly big disappointment this year, as I believed they'd be a team that'd be pushing for a division title this year. Blount hasn't been truly healthy, and QB Josh Freeman and WR Mike Williams have regressed this sesaon. The Packers have been the best team in football the entire season, and absolutely whipped the Vikings in their last game. Prediction: Packers 34, Bucs 17.
Bills @ Dolphins - Two teams that are heading in opposite direction, the Bills are 1-3 in their past four games, and have been beaten down in consecutive weeks by the Jets and Cowboys. The Bills need to find more balance on offense, as Fred Jackson is averaging 5.6 yards per carry (917 yards thru 9 games). The 'Fins have won two straight, and have been competitive in each of their past four games. Reggie Bush has been seeing consistent touches, and produced in that time (65 offensive touches, 359 yards, 3 TD). The Bills need this win to keep postseason hopes alive. Prediction: Bills 24, Dolphins 20.
Raiders @ Vikings - The Raiders are currently in the lead of the AFC West, but the three teams chasing them are all just one game back. Oakland will have had another long week to prepare, which can only help Carson Palmer, as they'll look to attack a vulnerable Vikings secondary. Minnesota will try to run the ball against the 25th ranked run defense of the Raiders, using Adrian Peterson early and often to take pressure off of QB Christian Ponder. Prediction: Raiders 30, Vikings 24.
Cowboys @ Redskins - Dallas looked very good in their home win over the Bills, and DeMarco Murray is the real deal at running back. The Dallas 'D" will look to pressure Rex Grossman (or John Beck, because Shanahan seemingly loves to flop quarterbacks as well as running backs). Washington should look to counter that with both draws and quick-hitting passes. Prediction: Cowboys 28, Redskins 21.
Cardinals @ 49ers - The Cardinals will look to build off the positive momentum of a huge road win against the Eagles. John Skelton has done well filling in for Kevin Kolb, and a win here could potentially cause a bit of a quarterback controversy. The bad news is they are playing a 49ers team that's as consistent on both sides of the ball as any team, and have beat three 6-3 teams this year (Bengals, Giants, Lions). You can basically guarantee the 49ers are a clinch for the division, but will still need to win these games to try and lock up a first round bye. Prediction: 49ers 24, Cardinals 13.
Seahawks @ Rams - The Seahawks have beat two 6-3 teams, including a huge win over Baltimore this past week. Marshawn Lynch has been very good the past two weeks, and that can be at least partially attributed to the improved play of the offensive line. The Rams eeked out a win this past week over the Browns, thanks to a botched snap on a potential go-ahead short field goal by Phil Dawson. St. Louis will look to try and get Sam Bradford on track, as he's regressed somewhat in his second season, and the offense is dead last in scoring (12.6 points/game). Prediction: Seahawks 23, Rams 17.
Titans @ Falcons - Chris Johnson got back on track against the Panthers this past week, racking up 130 yards rushing and 44 yards receiving. The Falcons will look to bottle up Johnson, stacking the box and forcing Matt Hasselbeck and his receivers to win one-on-one battles with the Falcons secondary (25th in the league). Prediction: Falcons 27, Titans 24.
Chargers @ Bears - San Diego badly needs a win to keep within shouting distance of the Raiders in the AFC West. An extra long week to prepare after their game should help them come out rested and ready, which is a good thing, because Matt Forte and the Bears have been playing some great football as of late. The Bears have put their early season struggles on offense to rest, as better balance in the play-calling has allowed Matt Forte to emerge as a top-five running back. The line is also protecting Jay Cutler better, but the loss of OL Chris Williams for the year will hurt. UPSET OF THE WEEK!!!!! Prediction: Chargers 30, Bears 22.
Eagles @ Giants - Philly has to win out to have a real chance at reaching to postseason, and this game is HUGE with the Giants already with a win in their first meeting. DeSean Jackson hasn't provided the big plays of years past, and has admitted he's been somewhat distracted by his contract situation. The Giants are going to really get after Michael Vick, as he sustained broken ribs in their loss to Arizona. Prediction: Giants 23, Eagles 20.
Chiefs @ Patriots - The Chiefs lost despite only allowing two completed passes by Denver this last week, and are now going to be without Matt Cassel, so Tyler Palko will have to step in on the road against the Patriots, who are 31-1 in Tom Brady's last 32 regular season home starts. Despite that, the Chiefs can still exploit a bad Patriots pass defense with Dwayne Bowe, Steve Breaston and rookie Jonathan Baldwin. The Pats will try and establish the run, which was something they struggled to do in last week's win over the Jets.
Prediction: Patriots 38, Chiefs 17.

Last Week: 8-8 (.500)
Season:    98-48 (.671)

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