Packers @ Lions - The Packers won a surprisingly tight game against the Bucs 35-26 this past Sunday. Their defense continually seems to make big plays (19 interceptions, 3 defensive touchdowns) and are only allowing 21.2 points per game, but they do give up a lot of yards (391.8 yards/game, 30th in NFL). Of particular concern is their pass defense, which has surrendered 289.3 yards per game, only ahead of the Patriots.
The Lions overcame a lethargic first half to win a shootout against Carolina 49-35 this past Sunday. Matthew Stafford threw for 335 yards and five touchdowns, and the recently signed Kevin Smith went wild against the Panthers defense to the tune of 200+ yards from scrimmage. Smith will likely see a good portion of snaps until RB Jahvid Best returns from his concussion.
Aaron Rodgers will be facing a stiff Lions pass defense (5th in yards allowed, 15 interceptions and tied for 8th in sacks). The key to this game will likely be the Packers ability to run the ball effectively against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in the NFL, which will take a hit as RB James Starks is likely to miss the game with a sprained knee.
UPSET OF THE WEEK!!!!! Prediction: Lions 34, Packers 30
Dolphins @ Cowboys - There are fewer teams in the NFL that have played better than the Dolphins recently, as they are currently on a three game winning streak, outscoring opponents by a combined 86-20. They also were within five minutes and a miraculous Tim Tebow-led comeback of beating the Broncos, and were leading the Giants on the road 17-10 with less than eleven minutes to play. The emergence of Reggie Bush as the feature back has produced solid results, but the key to this turnaround has been the play of QB Matt Moore. Signed this off-season to back up Chad Henne, Moore was thrust into the lineup against San Diego after Henne was lost for the season with a separated shoulder. In that time, the team is 3-3 with him as the starter, and he's posted an 88.8 quarterback rating during that time.
The Cowboys are now atop the NFC East, as they are on a three game winning streak of their own. They overcame a furious Redskins rally to tie it in with seconds left in the fourth quarter, winning a 27-24 overtime game in D.C.. DeMarco Murray has emerged as the dynamic running threat that Jerry Jones had hoped Felix Jones would be, averaging 105.3 yards per game on the ground in those starts (5.6 yards/carry). This has taken some of the pressure off of Tony Romo, who has been playing at a Pro Bowl level despite the fact that both Dez Bryant and Miles Austin have missed time dealing with nagging hamstring injuries.
The key to this game will be Romo's ability to find TE's Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett, as the Dolphins allowed infrequently targeted Bills TE Scott Chandler (a former Cowboy) 5 catches for 71 yards.
Prediction: Cowboys 20, Dolphins 17.
49ers @ Ravens - The 49ers are among the most complete teams in the NFL, as their 9-1 record would indicate. They play fundamentally sound defense, and employ a conservative offensive game plan that allows Alex Smith to effectively manage the game, as he's thrown 13 touchdowns to only four interceptions on the season. The rush defense is particularly impressive, yielding only 73.9 yards per game, #1 in the NFL.
The Ravens have more talent than do the 49ers, but their inconsistent play on the road (2-3, with especially bad losses to Jacksonville and Seattle) has stopped them from being truly elite. Ray Rice has continued to struggle running the ball (4.2 yards/carry, 66.2 yards per game), but has continually done a great job as a safety valve for Joe Flacco, as he's caught a team leading 51 catches for 513 yards and two touchdowns). For this team to emerge from the crowded AFC playoff picture and become a true Super Bowl contender, the Ravens will need the offensive line to block better for Rice.
Look for the 49ers stack the box, forcing Joe Flacco to try and beat them through the air. I'm particularly interested in the matchup of Baltimore WR's Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith against the CB tandem of Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown. Rogers limited former Boldin teammate Larry Fitzgerald to 41 yards on three catches this past week.
Prediction: Ravens 19, 49ers 14
Vikings @ Falcons - The Vikings have struggled the past couple of weeks, and are now likely to be without Adrian Peterson this week, who was injured in last Sunday's game against the Raiders with a left ankle sprain. Christian Ponder struggled, throwing three interceptions, and Raiders RB Michael Bush (filling in for an injured Darren McFadden) put in a workmanlike effort on the ground to salt the game away (30 carries, 109 yards, 1 TD). The good news for the Vikings is that Percy Harvin was finally able to find the end zone (6 catches, 73 yards, 1 TD; 5 rushes, 22 yards).
The Falcons have a stout run defense (2nd in the league), and have won four of their past five games. Michael Turner has again been very good this season (88.8 yards per game, 8 touchdowns), and they have a very good receiving corps (Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez) to aid quarterback Matt Ryan, who is on pace to throw for over 4,000 yards.
The matchup to watch will be how well the Falcons offensive line can protect Matt Ryan from a very strong pass rush of Jared Allen (13.5 sacks) and the rest of the Vikings defensive line.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Vikings 16.
Browns @ Bengals - The Browns finally got back in the win column with a 14-10 home win over the Jaguars. Chris Ogbonnaya was able to have a surprisingly good game against a solid Jaguars defense (21 rushes, 115 yards and a touchdown), and they were also able to do a decent job of containing MJD (21 carries, 87 yards, 1 TD).
The Browns will have a tough time running against the Bengals defense, which has a bit more athleticism and nastiness among their front seven. Though they did allow Ray Rice to eclipse 100 yards on the ground, 59 of it came on one play. The Bengals will likely have WR AJ Green back this week, but he'll face a very tough matchup against Browns CB Joe Haden, who is among the best cover corners in the league.
Look for the Browns to stack the box and try and shut down Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott, forcing Andy Dalton to throw against the #1 pass defense in the league.
Prediction: Bengals 16, Browns 10.
Panthers @ Colts - The Panthers offense has continued to produce yards (400.9, 5th in NFL), but that hasn't translated into scoring, as they are 18th in the league (22.5). The true problem for them is the defense, which is no doubt hurting as they are 27th in the league in yards allowed (374.8) and are 31st in scoring (28.6). The team is missing LBs Jon Beason and Thomas Davis, who were both placed on injured reserve by mid-September. Of particular concern is the run defense, which is 30th in the league (140.7).
As bad as things have gone for the Panthers, the Colts would envy being in their position. Without Peyton Manning, the entire offense has sputtered (30th in scoring, 31st in yards). The combination of Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky have accounted for a total of 7 pass touchdowns versus 8 interceptions, and are 31st in passing yardage (177.3).
What I'll be watching for is how balanced the Panthers attack is, as they've leaned somewhat heavily towards the pass. If Carolina gets too frisky in the pass game, that frees up Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis (4.5 sacks each) to pin their ears back and rush Cam Newton, who does have a propensity to force throws (14 interceptions).
Prediction: Panthers 27, Colts 17.
Texans @ Jaguars - The Texans will have had almost two weeks to get Matt Leinart ready to replace Matt Schaub. The good news for the Texans is they will have Andre Johnson back from injury this week, and also feature one of the best running games (and offensive lines) in the league. Both Arian Foster and Ben Tate are on pace to break 1,000 yards rushing on the season, which should take some of the pressure off of Leinart.
The Jaguars feature one of the better defenses in the league (3rd overall, 4th against the run). Free agent linebacker acquisition Paul Posluszny has been solid, as he's back in a 4-3, which his style of play is better suited for. As far as the offense, it simply has bordered on anemic. Marcedes Lewis has yet to re-capture his Pro Bowl form of a year ago, and Blaine Gabbert doesn't have a real #1 wide receiver, as Mike Thomas works better out of the slot.
The matchup I'll watch is the Texans RT Eric Winston against the combination of DE Jeremy Mincey and Matt Roth. Winston has had a very good year both in pass protection as well as run blocking, and is now the blind side tackle with left handed quarterback Leinart, while Mincey and Roth have combined for 7.5 sacks.
Prediction: Texans 23, Jaguars 14.
Bills @ Jets - The Bills are in a tailspin the past three weeks, and Ryan Fitzpatrick has struggled since signing his new 6 year, $59 million deal. In the four games since the extension was announced, the Bills are 1-3, and has thrown only 4 touchdowns to 8 interceptions in that time. Making matters worse for the Bills, they'll now be without Fred Jackson for the rest of the year due to a broken fibula. In a span of three weeks, they've now seen their best defensive lineman (Kyle Williams), best offensive lineman (Eric Wood) and best offensive play-maker (Jackson) all be placed on injured reserve. The Bills will now have an opportunity to see exactly what they have in 2010 1st round pick CJ Spiller.
The Jets have been one of the most disappointing teams in the AFC, and at 5-5, they will need to win 5 of their last six games to give themselves a shot at reaching the postseason. The Jets have yet to find consistency on offense, as they've totaled just 29 points in their past two games (losses to the Patriots and Broncos). Of particular concern is the fact that they're 26th in the league in rushing, a far cry from the power running game that head coach Rex Ryan would like to employ.
This game is a bad matchup on paper for the Bills, as the Jets are built to stop spread offenses with three top-tier cornerbacks (Revis, Cromartie and Wilson). The Bills will need to get solid production out of Spiller, as without a solid game on the ground, Fitzpatrick will have to force throws, which doesn't bode well for Buffalo.
Prediction: Jets 24, Bills 13.
Cardinals @ Rams - The big question for the Cardinals heading into this game is the availability of Kevin Kolb, who's been battling a foot injury and missed the past three games. In his absence, John Skelton did a fairly good job, as he led the team in their road victory over Kolb's old team, the Eagles. He crashed back to Earth in the 49ers game (6 of 19, 99 yards, 3 interceptions), and was replaced by Richard Bartel.
The Rams were embarrassed by visiting Seattle last week, limited to 185 yards at home in the 24-7 defeat. Not much has gone right for the Rams this year, but Steven Jackson has been a bright spot, racking up 707 yards (9th in the league) and averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Look for the Rams to give Jackson a lot of touches against the 24th ranked run defense of the Cardinals.
The matchup to watch will be rookie CB Patrick Peterson vs. Rams WR Brandon Lloyd. Peterson has a propensity for big plays, but got abused by Michael Crabtree for 7 catches and 120 yards this past week. This is a matchup the Rams need to win in order to have a chance in that game.
Prediction: Rams 24, Cardinals 23.
Bucs @ Titans - Another team that can definitely be listed as a disappointment, the Bucs were a team that seemed to be on the rise before the season started. Josh Freeman has struggled this season, and WR Mike Williams is not making the impact he did in 2010, largely due to the fact that he's seeing almost constant double-teams. The defense has also struggled, and has again lost DT Gerald McCoy for the season due to a torn triceps. Don't discount the strong effort they put forth against the undefeated Packers, as even in defeat, that type of performance was something I thought we'd see more often this season.
The Titans are on the fringe of the AFC playoff picture, and with Matt Schaub now on injured reserve, they will have a small chance at winning the AFC South should the Texans falter. Jake Locker looked strong in relief of the injured Matt Hasselbeck, throwing for two touchdowns in the second half of their loss in Atlanta. Should the Titans drop this game and the Texans win, we may likely see them give the rookie the reigns to the offense.
This could be another game where Chris Johnson could find a rhythm, as the Bucs have the 26th ranked run defense (31st overall). If the Bucs bottle up the run, they'll have a great chance at the road victory.
Prediction: Titans 24, Bucs 20.
Bears @ Raiders - The Bears will look to tighten up the reigns on offense now that Caleb Hanie will be the starter for the rest of the season. The injury to Jay Cutler definitely doesn't help the Bears playoff aspirations, as he was having a very solid season. Look for the defense to pick up the slack, as they've been playing better than their rank of 25th might indicate.
The Raiders will look to keep their momentum going following up their 27-21 win in Minnesota this past week. Michael Bush has done a great job of filling in with Darren McFadden being hurt, and Carson Palmer has started to look more like the quarterback he was in Cincinnati before the leg injury against the Steelers in the playoffs.
Prediction: Raiders 27, Bears 20.
Redskins @ Seahawks - Washington played very tough against the Cowboys, and Rex Grossman actually played very well in their overtime loss to Dallas. The offensive line is still banged up, and the running game has suffered without Tim Hightower (30th in the league). It likely won't get any easier, as Seattle's defense is 11th in the league (8th against the run).
Despite their 4-6 record, the 'Hawks have won a couple of big games against good teams (at the Giants, home vs. Baltimore), and are playing better football of late. The defensive line has been particularly impressive, as Red Bryant and company have done a great job in the trenches. Marshawn Lynch has been the catalyst for their offense, as he's run for a combined 197 yards in their past two games (both wins).
I see a low scoring game with two underrated defenses. The key will be Seattle's ability to capitalize on Lynch's running by using play-action to stretch the field vertically with Mike Williams and Sidney Rice.
Prediction: Seahawks 20, Redskins 17.
Patriots @ Eagles - So much for the Patriots starting to lose their edge, as they've beat down the Jets and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks. The defense is finally starting to get a pass-rush, and Tom Brady has been exceptional again this season (326.6 yards per game, 25 touchdowns through 10 games). They've emerged from the rest of the AFC East, and again appear to be contenders, as Rob Gronkowski now has 10 receiving touchdowns on the year.
The Eagles kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 17-10 victory over the Giants this past week. Vince Young wasn't spectacular, but did lead the game-winning touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. Philadelphia still has play-makers, but DeSean Jackson has got to put the contract issues aside and perform, because he's simply not making the plays he has in years past.
The match-up I'm watching will be Eagles LT Jason Peters against Pats DE Andre Carter. Peters is one of the most physically gifted offensive lineman in the league, and he'll be facing a man who has 9.0 sacks on the year in Andre Carter who uses a relentless motor to wear on opposing lineman.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Eagles 24.
Broncos @ Chargers - The Broncos just keep winning with Tim Tebow, even if it's not always pretty. For all of Tebow's flaws as a passer (footwork, release, accuracy), he's only turned the ball over twice on the season. Now firmly back in the AFC West race, they'll have a chance to bounce the Chargers out of the race with a win in San Diego. The defense has played better as of late (up to 17th in the league) and rookie linebacker Von Miller (9.5 sacks) looks like a runaway defensive rookie of the year.
San Diego's season is on life support, and a loss here would all but secure head coach Norv Turner a pink slip come season's end. Philip Rivers is having his worst year as a full-time starter, and Antonio Gates, Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert have all missed time with injury. The Chargers run defense has not been stellar this year, and they're not forcing the turnovers of previous years (-10 in turnover ratio).
The Chargers HAVE to stack the box and try and make Tebow beat them through the air, or else this could be a long day in San Diego.
Prediction: Chargers 28, Broncos 20.
Steelers @ Chiefs - Pittsburgh is 7-1 against teams not named the Ravens. The Steelers should be well-rested coming off their bye, and will be playing a beat up Chiefs team coming off an embarrassing 34-3 loss on Monday Night Football to the Patriots. Antonio Brown has emerged as a solid receiving option alongside Mike Wallace, and Heath Miller is once again a receiving threat at tight end.
The Chiefs have lost three straight games, and will now be without Matt Cassel for the rest of the season. Tyler Palko will get the start against the Steelers this week, but Kyle Orton (who Kansas City claimed off waivers from Denver) will likely be the starter for the season's final five weeks. The Chiefs are currently last in the NFL in sacks (12 through 10 games) and outside of Tamba Hali (7), there is nobody on the Chiefs that poses much of a threat as a pass-rusher.
If the Chiefs want to give themselves a chance, they'll need Jackie Battle to have a solid game on the ground and play turnover-free football to keep the crowd at Arrowhead Stadium in it.
Prediction: Steelers 31, Chiefs 15.
Giants @ Saints - The Giants will look to shake off the sting of a loss to the Vick-less Eagles this past Sunday. The lack of a running game has hurt the Giants (just 83.2 yards per game), which puts each game firmly on Eli Manning's shoulders. The pass rush has been stellar, and being able to get after the quarterback should put pressure on Drew Brees, and could force him into some uncharacteristic mistakes.
The Saints currently sit atop the NFC South, and have looked very good at home all season. Jimmy Graham has joined Rob Gronkowski as 1 and 1a among the league's tight ends. Darren Sproles has seamlessly fit into Reggie Bush's old role in the offense, and their running back committee has produced solid results. The one area I do have some concern about the Saints is their pass defense, which has 16 touchdown passes and only intercepted 5 balls.
What I'll be watching for is which team can best establish the run, as both quarterbacks are exceptional at passing off of play-action. I fully expect this to be the most exciting (and potentially high scoring) game of the week!
Prediction: Saints 31, Giants 27.
Last Week: 9-5 (.643)
Season: 107-53 (.669)
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