Saturday, September 15, 2012

2012 NFL Predictions: Week Two

Baltimore Ravens @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Ravens were downright dominant against the Bengals on Monday night, running away in the second half to take it 44-13. Joe Flacco was especially good against a solid Cincy secondary, throwing for 299 yards and 2 TD. Now entering his fifth season in the league, Flacco is starting to make his mark, and the emergence of TE Dennis Pitta and WR Torrey Smith has given him another weapon to go with the supremely talented Ray Rice.
Philadelphia was able to overcome five turnovers by forcing Browns rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden into four interceptions, and Michael Vick found Clay Harbor for a late touchdown to help the Eagles sneak out of Cleveland in a 17-16 squeaker. The most disconcerting thing about the Eagles' performance was the fact that there was no balance on offense, with 26 more pass attempts than runs. The good news for Philly is that they were able to out-gain the Browns 456-210 in total offense, and they will likely do a better job of protecting the ball in the future.
While these two teams performed drastically different in week one, I believe the Eagles should be able to protect the ball better, and the pass rush of Philadelphia will cause some problems for Flacco and the Baltimore pass game.
Prediction: Eagles 26, Ravens 20.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants
I thought that Tampa would be a more competitive team this season, and showed a vastly improved defense in their 16-10 win over Carolina. Doug Martin was also effective as the teams' feature back, while Josh Freeman and the offense played efficient, mistake-free football.
The Giants came across a motivated Cowboys team that featured improved secondary play and clutch quarterbacking from Tony Romo as they fell 24-17 this past Wednesday. Of particular concern was the run defense, which surrendered nearly 150 yards, allowing the Cowboys to keep their defensive players fresh to harass Eli Manning.
In this game, Tampa Bay will try and employ a similar strategy, which could keep New York's bevy of talented pass-rushers at bay. The Giant running game struggled against Dallas, but should find better success against the still-young Bucs defense. Tampa will keep it close, but New York wins.
Giants 27, Bucs 17

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland's defense was opportunistic, forcing five turnovers while holding Philadelphia to 17 points, yet it still wasn't enough, as Brandon Weeden's four interceptions doomed the Browns in a game they had every chance to win. The team will need Weeden (12-35 for 118 yards) to do a better job, but the offensive line wasn't stellar either, as outside of a Travis Benjamin 35-yard run on a reverse, totaled 64 yards on 21 carries.
The Bengals got throttled on Monday night against the Ravens, but one loss shouldn't dictate the rest of their season. The running game was solid behind new addition BenJarvus Green-Ellis (18-91-1), but the offensive line needs to do a better job of protecting Andy Dalton, who was sacked four times. Defensively, the Bengals just couldn't stop the run, surrendering 122 yards on 5.3 per carry.
The Browns are clearly in rebuilding mode, and will need the entire offense to do a better job if they want to avoid selecting early in next year's draft. Cincinnati should have an easier time in the passing game with Cleveland cornerback Joe Haden now serving a four-game ban for PED usage.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Browns 10

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins
The Raiders actually played the Chargers tight for much of the game, but repeated issues with the long-snapping repeatedly set up San Diego with great field position. Darren McFadden was heavily utilized in the passing game (13-86), but struggled on the ground, netting just 32 yards on 15 carries. Carson Palmer has seemingly returned to form, posting nearly 300 yards passing in the losing effort.
Miami's defense was solid for most of their loss to the Texans, surrendering just 337 total yards, but couldn't overcome Ryan Tannehill's three interceptions in a 30-10 loss. The Dolphins will need more production out of their running game with rookie Tannehill under center, as the receiving corps in Miami is thin at best.
In what should be a low-scoring contest, I like Carson Palmer over Tannehill in a tight, ugly game.
Prediction: Raiders 17, Dolphins 13

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
The Chiefs played Atlanta even for a half, but three costly Matt Cassel turnovers helped Atlanta pull away in the second half for a 40-24 victory. Kansas City racked up 376 yards of total offense, as Jamaal Charles appears to be fully healed. The Chiefs defense couldn't stop Matt Ryan and company, who racked up 299 yards and three touchdowns through the air, despite limiting the Falcons running attack to 84 yards on 23 carries.
There were high hopes for the Bills entering this season, as the signing of Mario Williams was supposed to help improve a pitiful pass-rush and poor defense. Well, a 48-28 loss that wasn't as close as the 20-point difference might indicate highlighted the bug-a-boos that plagued Buffalo in 2011: poor decision-making from Ryan Fitzpatrick (3 INT) and no pass rush (0 sacks). Making matters worse for the Bills are the injuries to WR David Nelson (torn ACL) and RB Fred Jackson (strained LCL), though C.J. Spiller (14-169-1) should be able to do well in Jackson's absence.
The return of cornerback Brandon Flowers and LB Tamba Hali for Kansas City will give them a defensive boost, and the losses of Jackson and Nelson for Buffalo tilt the odds in the Chiefs' favor, despite being on the road.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bills 23

Minnesota Vikings @ Indianapolis Colts
Despite being just nine months removed from a torn ACL, Adrian Peterson was able to take the vast majority of snaps at running back in the Vikings overtime victory against Jacksonville. Christian Ponder also was solid (20-27, 270 yards), and the defense did just enough to hold off the improving Jaguars.
The Colts were on the wrong end of a 20-point thrashing at the hands of the Bears in Chicago. Andrew Luck struggled some in his first start (23-45, 309 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT) against a stout defense. The Colts lacked balance against the Bears, passing three times as much as running. The defense also struggled against the air attack, surrendering 333 yards and two touchdowns.
While I think Andrew Luck will play better against the Vikings, Adrian Peterson's return and the improvement of second-year quarterback Christian Ponder put Minnesota on top.
Prediction: Vikings 20, Colts 17

Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots
When John Skelton went out with an injury against the Seahawks, former starter Kevin Kolb took the reigns on offense and led the game-winning drive with a touchdown pass to Andre Roberts. Kolb will likely be starting the next couple of weeks, but whoever starts at quarterback will need help from a running game that was only able to amass 43 yards on the ground. Defensively, the Cards were able to keep Seattle's offense in check, surrendering just 253 yards while forcing two turnovers and recording three sacks.
The Patriots were impressive on defense as well this past week, holding Chris Johnson to a career-worst 4 yards rushing in their 34-13 win over Tennessee. The Patriots also received help in the running game, with second-year back Stevan Ridley rushing for 125 yards and a touchdown.
The Patriots are not unbeatable, but Arizona will need to get big days out of Kolb, Wells and Larry Fitzgerald if they are going to pull out a win in Foxoborough. I just don't see it happening.
Prediction: Patriots 33, Cardinals 17

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Even though Saints quarterback Drew Brees threw for 322 yards and 3 touchdowns, he also had threw two big interceptions, and the defense couldn't stop Robert Griffin III and the new-look Washington Redskins offense in a 40-32 defeat. The running game also suffered in the loss, as Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram combined for just 32 yards on ten carries.
Carolina also struggled in week one, but theirs were largely on offense, as they were only able to muster 10 each of both points and rushing yards in a 16-10 road defeat to the Bucs. Newton was able to throw for 300 yards, but his two turnovers ended up making a difference as Tampa Bay held nearly a 15 minute advantage in time of possession.
I don't feel great about the Panthers right now, but the Saints seem disjointed on both sides of the ball, and I like the Panthers in a higher-scoring game.
Prediction: Panthers 27, Saints 24

Washington Redskins @ St. Louis Rams
RGIII had a great regular season debut against the Saints, throwing for over 300 yards and two touchdowns in their road win over New Orleans. The running game was solid as well, with Alfred Morris running for just under 100 yards and two touchdowns of his own. The run defense was also solid in limiting the Saints to just 32 yards on the ground, while the pass defense held Drew Brees to barely 50% completions.
The Rams gave the Lions everything they could handle before falling to the Lions in Detroit by just four points. Sam Bradford was effective in a game manager role, and while the defense gave up a lot of yards (429), it was able to intercept Matthew Stafford three times (one returned for a TD by Cortland Finnegan).
I expect to see a more pedestrian game from RGIII in this one, but the Redskins defense could give the Rams offensive line (and Sam Bradford) fits.
Prediction: Redskins 23, Rams 16

Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks
The Cowboys will have had 11 days to prepare for the Seahawks following their season-opening road victory against the Giants. Tony Romo was able to outplay Eli Manning, while DeMarco Murray was great on the ground (20 rushes, 121 yards). The story of the game was the emergence of WR Kevin Ogletree (8 receptions, 114 yards, 2 TD). Like Laurent Robinson last year, the Cowboys always seem to get great production out of their third wide receivers, and while he may not match those numbers the rest of the season, Ogletree has proven to be a solid slot option.
The Seahawks weren't able to put the ball in the end zone late against the Cardinals, falling 20-16 in Arizona. The running game was steady with Marshawn Lynch, but Russell Wilson struggled some in his first career start, turning the ball over twice while completing just 18 of 34 passes. While the defense is a solid unit, the pass rush is still a work in progress.
I'll be watching the matchups of Dallas receivers Dez Bryant and Miles Austin against the cornerback duo of Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman. The Seahawks corners are among the league's largest, but will need to have stellar days if the 'Hawks are to have a chance. Russell Wilson and the Seattle offensive line could be in trouble with a ferocious Dallas pass rush.
Prediction: Cowboys 26, Seahawks 13

Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers
The Titans weren't able to do much of anything against the Patriots in a lopsided home loss, as Chris Johnson was only able to rush for 4 yards. QB Jake Locker also separated his non-throwing shoulder in defeat, though the team will be getting back WR Kenny Britt for their upcoming game. The run defense is also a concern, as they allowed the Patriots to rack up over 150 yards on the ground.
San Diego could see the return of running back Ryan Matthews (shoulder), and it couldn't come at a better time, as the Oakland Raiders absolutely shut down the run game in their season opener, though poor special teams play by Oakland allowed San Diego to get the win. Philip Rivers was steady (if unspectacular) against Oakland, and the team definitely misses former Charger Vincent Jackson's presence.
The Chargers seem to be a more complete team at this early stage, and the struggles of Chris Johnson since the start of the 2011 season are a definite concern.
Prediction: Chargers 30, Titans 20

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Jets absolutely demolished the Bills 48-28 this past weekend, and the score wasn't indicative of just how dominant they looked. Mark Sanchez looked like a Pro Bowler, while the running game was respectable with Shonn Greene. Defensively, the Jets were able to pick off three passes, including returning one for a touchdown.
Pittsburgh had their moments, but couldn't take down Peyton Manning in his regular season debut with the Broncos, falling 31-19. The running game fizzled against Denver, totaling just 75 yards on 26 carries, and while Ben Roethlisberger was solid through the air, his interception late (which was returned by Tracy Porter for a touchdown) sealed the deal for Denver.
The storyline for this game is the injury bug, as both Jets' cornerback Darrelle Revis and tight end Dustin Keller are out with injury. For the Steelers, Rashard Mendenhall is doubtful, while linebacker James Harrison and safety Troy Polamalu are questionable. While the Steelers defense is aging fast, they should still be able to handle the Jets in this one.
Prediction: Steelers 21, Jets 17

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
The Lions were able to eke out a win against a scrappy Rams team, overcoming Matthew Stafford's three interceptions. Calvin Johnson was his usual self, but Detroit lacked offensive rhythm for much of the game. The running game had a decent per-rush average, but I'm concerned by the lack of offensive balance (48-18 in favor of runs). Defensively, the team played a fundamentally sound game, giving up just 251 yards and recording three sacks.
Perhaps the best team in football right now, the 49ers absolutely put it on the Packers, taking a 30-22 victory at Lambeau Field. The defense was relentless, recording three sacks and an interception while allowing just 324 yards to a very potent offensive team. While the offensive line struggled some in pass protection (4 sacks allowed), the team was able to rack up nearly 400 yards of offense (191 passing, 186 rushing) without turning the ball over against an opportunistic Packers defense.
The Lions will need to be able to run the ball effectively in order to keep the 49ers defense honest, which would open up the deep ball with Calvin Johnson. While "Megatron" may get his numbers, the 49ers get the win.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Lions 16

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons
The Peyton Manning era got off to a great start for the Broncos, as Manning threw for 253 yards and two touchdown on 19-26 passing. The defense was also impressive, totaling five sacks (two by Von Miller) and a game-clinching interception return for a touchdown by Tracy Porter. With Manning under center, the Broncos look like the best team in the wide open AFC West.
The Atlanta passing game was in mid-season form, absolutely torching the Chiefs. Matt Ryan threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns, while receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones combined for 12 catches, 195 yards and two touchdowns. While the running game still needs some work (84 yards on 23 carries), this is a team to be feared. On defense, the recorded three sacks and forced three turnovers, but still surrendered nearly 400 yards to the Chiefs offense, though a good portion of that came late in the game.
Manning looked great last week, and with the loss of Falcons cornerback Brent Grimes to a torn Achilles, another successful week isn't out of the question. UPSET OF THE WEEK!!!!!
Prediction: Broncos 24, Falcons 20

Last Week: 9-6 (.600)

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