Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears
This game will be the regular season debut of QB Andrew Luck. A very polished quarterback coming out, Luck was taken #1 overall to replace former franchise player Peyton Manning. The Colts are clearly in rebuilding mode, and with Chuck Pagano as head coach, the team will likely do its best to try and protect Luck by employing a conservative, balanced attack.
Chicago traded for WR Brandon Marshall this offseason to give QB Jay Cutler another weapon in the passing game. Both Cutler and Matt Forte spent nearly the entire second half of 2011 on the sidelines with injuries, but this team has playoff-level talent when healthy. Chicago's defense should also be solid in 2012, though the health issues with Brian Urlacher do have to be concerning.
The Colts won't be completely inept this season, but the Bears are clearly a notch ahead right now. While Indianapolis will have some positive moments this season, it won't happen against Chicago.
Prediction: Bears 27, Colts 13
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns
After failing to live up to the "Dream Team" moniker Vince Young used in the 2011 preseason, there's no question that Andy Reid is clearly on the hot seat. While he's led the team to four straight NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl, the team cannot afford to miss the postseason in 2012.
Cleveland has a new coach (Pat Shurmur), a new quarterback (Brandon Weeden) and a new running back (Trent Richardson) to break in this season, and will look to turn around a downright putrid offense. Richardson missed time with a scope on his knee this preseason, but should be an impact runner in the league, which the Browns will need to take pressure off of Weeden.
On paper this game is a mismatch, as the Eagles simply have too many weapons on offense, and their front four generates a lot of pressure on the quarterback. The game could stay close for a while if Cleveland can establish the run against an Eagles defense that was less than stellar against the rush in 2011, but the Eagles will just be too much.
Prediction: Eagles 30, Browns 16
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions
Jeff Fisher takes over for Steve Spagnuolo in St. Louis, and will look to turn around a franchise that's struggled in recent seasons. The offseason additions of CB Cortland Finnegan and Kendall Langford will add toughness to a defense that was soft against the run, while a revamped offensive line will look to do a better job of protecting third-year signal-caller Sam Bradford. Bradford played in just nine games in 2011, but proved in his rookie season that when given time, he's a solid NFL quarterback.
The Lions have a very pass-happy offense, as Matthew Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards in 2011, while Calvin Johnson had one of the greatest seasons for a receiver in NFL history. If the team can find consistency in the running game, the offense could be nearly unstoppable. Defensively, Detroit relies heavily on a strong front four which features Ndamukong Suh and Kyle VandenBosch to put pressure on the quarterback, which allows their defensive backs to gamble jumping routes.
Jeff Fisher coached teams are notoriously scrappy, and if Steven Jackson can run the ball against an iffy Lions run-'D', then there could be an upset.
Prediction: Lions 28, Rams 24
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
Joe Philbin comes from Green Bay to take over as head coach of the Dolphins. The contrast in offensive talents is fairly vast, as Philbin lacks the quarterback or receivers to match the passing attack he coordinated for the Packers. The good news for Miami is they still have a talented defense, as well as a resurgent Reggie Bush, who fared well in the feature back role with the Dolphins in 2011.
The Texans made the divisional round of the 2011 playoffs, and that was without starting quarterback Matt Schaub. Houston adjusted their playing style to a run-first attack, and the two-headed monster of Arian Foster and Ben Tate are stellar behind an underrated offensive line. While they lost Mario Williams in free agency, the team thrived in their first season with Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator. With players like Brian Cushing, J.J. Watt, Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin wreaking havoc, the team should be primed for another playoff run.
The Dolphins defense will keep them in it, but a lack of offensive firepower will catch up to them in the second half, and a balanced offensive attack from the Texans will wear down the Miami defense as the game progresses.
Prediction: Texans 23, Dolphins 13
Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs
Under Mike Smith, the Falcons have been able to be a consistently good team. While the team has struggled once it gets to the postseason, there's no denying that they are still among the elite teams in the NFC. The receiving tandem of Roddy White and Julio Jones pair nicely with Matt Ryan, and with Michael Turner still a workhorse back, and the ageless Tony Gonzalez working underneath, Atlanta should be an efficient (and sometimes explosive) offense. The defense should be improved with the arrival of Asante Samuel from the Eagles, and the team still has Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson on the outside as well.
2011 was a lost season for Kansas City, as injuries to key cogs in RB Jamaal Charles and FS Eric Berry in the first two weeks of the season really put the team behind the eight ball. Romeo Crennel replaced Todd Haley at mid-season, and the team was much more competitive down the stretch, as Kansas City employed more of a run-first offense. The addition of Peyton Hillis should help keep Charles healthy and balance the load, and tight end should be a strength as well, with the signing of Kevin Boss and the return of Tony Moeaki. Defensively, the Chiefs lost Brandon Carr to the Cowboys in free agency, but replaced him with former Raider Stanford Routt.
The Chiefs played hard for Crennel last season, and I see no reason to believe this year will be any different. I just think the Falcons have a bit more on both sides of the ball, and I trust Matt Ryan a bit more in the clutch than Matt Cassel.
Prediction: Falcons 20, Chiefs 16.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings
While the defense was actually very solid last year, the Jaguar passing game was essentially non-existent last season as then-rookie Blaine Gabbert struggled to do much of anything through the air last season. With Maurice Jones-Drew back with the team after what essentially amounted to a preseason holdout, the team should still have a solid running game, though Rashad Jennings will likely be the lead back this week.
The storyline for the season opener for the Vikings is the health of Adrian Peterson, who is just nine months removed from a torn ACL. While he could very well play this week, the team will likely limit his workload early in the season, which means more work for Toby Gerhart. Christian Ponder showed flashes last season, and if Percy Harvin can stay healthy, and new left tackle Matt Kalil can keep Ponder upright, the Vikings could approach .500.
I expect this to be a somewhat low-scoring game, as neither MJD or AP are going to shoulder a big workload.
Prediction: Vikings 17, Jaguars 13
Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints
The Redskins traded a bounty full of picks to St. Louis in order to select Baylor QB Robert Griffin III with the second overall pick this past April. While Griffin is more physically talented than Andrew Luck (and also a Heisman Trophy winner), he'll still endure some growing pains, especially playing in the meat grinder that is the NFC East. The Skins have a somewhat revamped roster, including the additions of Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan, which should help take pressure off of Griffin. Defensively, the Redskins have a solid defense, and the pass-rushing tandem of Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan will wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks.
While the Saints players won an appeal over the "Bountygate" suspensions, the team will still be without head coach and offensive mastermind Sean Payton for the season. While that might sting some, having Drew Brees and a roster full of offensive weapons will help alleviate some of the concern. While the team lost All-Pro guard Carl Nicks to the Bucs, Ben Grubbs isn't a huge step down. On defense, the Saints will be solid with the un-suspended Will Smith and Jonathan Vilma. The additions of Curtis Lofton and Cameron Jordan should also help.
In this game, I just can't envision the Redskins being able to keep up with the Saints passing attack.
Prediction: Saints 31, Redskins 14
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
The Bills were one of the big movers in free agency this season, as they bolstered the pass-rush with Mario Williams and Mark Anderson while switching back to a 4-3 defense which will be run by new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt. Offensively, the Bills were able to re-sign Stevie Johnson, and if Ryan Fitzpatrick can make better decisions with the football this season, Buffalo could end the longest active postseason drought in the league.
The Jets were among the biggest disappointments in the league in 2011, as the team underperformed and began to show dysfunction at season's end. The defense should still be very solid, but I was as confused as anyone that the Jets gave Mark Sanchez a big contract extension when his numbers shouldn't have dictated as big of a raise. The team also acquired Tim Tebow, who will no doubt be called for by Jets fans the minute Sanchez starts to struggle.
This game should be a very good measuring stick for Buffalo, as if they want a realistic shot at the playoffs, they'll likely need to beat out the Jets to make it. This could be the lowest scoring game of the day.
Prediction: Bills 17, Jets 13
New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans
After falling short in the Super Bowl to the Giants, the Patriots continued to reload, adding Brandon Lloyd to take pressure off of Wes Welker on the outside. Tom Brady has perhaps the best pass-catching corps in all of football, as Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are both top-flight tight ends as well. Stevan Ridley replaces Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis as the feature back as well, but the offensive line looked less than steady in the preseason. On defense, the team reloaded in the draft, DE Chandler Jones, LB Dont'a Hightower, CB Alfonzo Dennard and S Tavon Wilson.
The Titans will have a new starting quarterback, as Jake Locker overtook incumbent Matt Hasselbeck this preseason. Locker will bring a stronger arm and better mobility than Hasselbeck, and feature back Chris Johnson should bounce back after a contract holdout caused his numbers to slip in 2011. The receiving corps is also solid, as they were able to add deep threat Kendall Wright to a group that includes big-play Kenny Britt and underneath threat Nate Washington. On defense, the team will miss CB Cortland Finnegan, who brought toughness and physicality in their secondary. The pass rush should get a boost from Kamerion Wimbley, and has veteran leaders in Will Witherspoon and Michael Griffin.
The Patriots no doubt still feel the sting of their second Super Bowl defeat at the hands of the Giants, and will play with a chip on their shoulder all season.
Prediction: Patriots 38, Titans 20
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Russell Wilson, a third round pick in 2012, beat out free agent signing Matt Flynn and incumbent Tarvaris Jackson (who has since been traded) to be the starter for Pete Carroll. He'll be supported by a strong running game featuring Marshawn Lynch, whose bruising style made him one of the hottest running backs in the league towards the end of last season. On defense, the Seahawks needed to bolster their pass rush, and the additions of first round pick Bruce Irvin and the signing of Jason Jones should help.
The Cards have decided to go with John Skelton over Kevin Kolb, though neither put up stellar numbers in 2011. If a new-look offensive line can do a better job of protecting their quarterback, the offense could take a leap forward. Larry Fitzgerald is still one of the elite wide receivers in the game, and will likely be among the league's most targeted receivers. On the other side of the ball, the team should see improved play in the secondary, and they still have a solid front seven, though a return to form from Darnell Dockett would do wonders.
I see Seattle as a more complete team despite starting a rookie quarterback, and will win a close one.
Prediction: Seahawks 23, Cardinals 19
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
This could well be the game of the week, as they were the top two NFC teams record-wise in 2011. The 49ers will feature a gameplan predicated on running the ball, and the offense was bolstered with the additions of RBs Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James, while the receiving corps added Mario Manningham, Randy Moss and A.J. Jenkins to give Alex Smith more weapons. Defensively, the team is stellar at defending the run and getting after the quarterback, and have several All-Pro candidates (Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith are examples).
The Packers were taken out in the playoffs by the eventual champs, and struggled against the aggressive Giants defense. Aaron Rodgers earned his first MVP last season, and has weapons like Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and JerMichael Finley to cause defensive coordinators headaches. On defense, the Packers weren't as effective at rushing the passer, and their gambling defense surrendered a lot of yards last season. Rookie Nick Perry should help take some of the pressure off of Clay Matthews as the other outside backer, and the pass rush will likely see an uptick in 2012.
In what should be a very tight game, I think the Packers will pull this one out late in a somewhat low-scoring affair.
Prediction: Packers 24, 49ers 19
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cam Newton far exceeded anyone's wildest expectations last season, running away with the Rookie of the Year award. The team also added short-yardage back Mike Tolbert to a running back committee that already has Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Steve Smith seemed retivalized last year as well, and Carolina could again be a solid offense in 2012. First round pick Luke Kuechly should add some playmaking ability at linebacker, and the return of Jon Beason will also help.
The Bucs faded big-time down the stretch, and new coach Greg Schiano adds a level of toughness and discipline the team seemingly lacked under Raheem Morris. A revamped offense that includes WR Vincent Jackson, G Carl Nicks, TE Dallas Clark and first round running back Doug Martin should provide aide for Josh Freeman. On defense, the team added two starters in the draft in SS Mark Barron and LB Lavonte David, and free agent CB Eric Wright should help bolster a defense that really struggled in 2011.
Ultimately, the Panthers are just farther ahead in their effort to rebuild than Tampa, though I expect the Bucs to play a full 60 minutes every game.
Prediction: Panthers 26, Bucs 20
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
The Steelers season ended in Denver after Tim Tebow connected with Demaryius Thomas for a long touchdown pass in overtime during last year's Wild Card round. Mike Wallace ended his long holdout and should be on the field for this game, but could see some early struggles after missing almost the entire preseason. Pittsburgh's defense was still stingy on yards allowed in 2011, but finished near the bottom of the league in takeaways. CB Keenan Lewis will fill William Gay's spot as starting corner, and the defense should see a takeaway increase this year.
The biggest story in Denver during the offseason was the signing of Peyton Manning and the immediate trade of cult-hero Tim Tebow to the New York Jets. Manning didn't play in 2011 while recovering from multiple neck surgeries, but has looked solid in the preseason. On defense, the Broncos still have a terrific pass rush, as Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil will wreak havoc on opposing offenses, and the additions of rookie DE Derek Wolfe and CB Tracy Porter will only help.
While Pittsburgh may not be the same team it was in year's past, the ferocious pass rush will still cause some problems for Denver's offensive line, and will make Manning's life difficult.
Prediction: Steelers 23, Broncos 20
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals reached the playoffs last season, as rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green were better than advertised last season. Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis replaces Cedric Benson in the backfield, and rookie guard Kevin Zeitler should help improve the running game, which struggled some last year. Defensively, the team remains largely intact, and was one of the more underrated defenses in the league during the 2011 season.
The Ravens nearly reached the Super Bowl last season, as Ray Rice had a Pro Bowl caliber season. Joe Flacco was solid, and Torrey Smith showed the potential to be an impact player in the future. For the defense, the biggest story is the injury to Terrell Suggs, but rookies Courtney Upshaw and Sergio Kindle will try and offset the lost production. The team still has leaders like in Haloti Ngata and future Hall-of-Famers Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, so expect the defense to again be good.
The Bengals proved they're a solid team and could be a legitimate threat to the Ravens and Steelers for the AFC North crown. Despite all that, the Ravens are just a better team right now.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Bengals 21
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
I was as surprised as anyone that Norv Turner remained as the head coach of the Chargers, but this is the ultimate do-or-die scenario for him. Philip Rivers was very turnover prone early last year, which put the Chargers in a hole they couldn't dig out of, though he regained his Pro Bowl form later in the year. The team lost Vincent Jackson and Mike Tolbert last season, but the emergence of Ryan Matthews made Tolbert expendable.
The Raiders have a new head coach, but he inherits some talent on both sides of the ball. If Darren McFadden can stay healthy (which is a big "if"), the team's running game has a chance to be great, which should take pressure off of Carson Palmer, who struggled after being traded to Oakland partway through last year. On defense, Tommie Kelly and Richard Seymour provide a solid DT tandem, and MLB Rolando McClain is a tackling machine. The secondary could struggle after letting go of Stanford Routt, but Shawntae Spencer should help.
The AFC West is wide open in 2012, and the winner of this game will give themselves a solid first step.
Prediction: Chargers 23, Raiders 16
2011 Regular Season: 169-87 (.660)
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