St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears
The Jeff Fisher-led Rams have played with a renewed toughness on both sides of the ball, and the healthy return of Sam Bradford after a poor and injury-riddled sophomore campaign has made a huge difference. The team has also discovered an heir-apparent to running back Steven Jackson, as undrafted rookie Daryl Richardson (17 carries, 103 yards) filled in for a benched Jackson and performed well above expectations against the Redskins. While Jackson is still a very effective runner, he may a shared workload moving forward, something he hasn't really had to worry about since Marshall Faulk was in St. Louis.
Jay Cutler and the Bears will have had 10 days to lick their wounds from their loss in Green Bay last Thursday. Cutler has been very hit-and-miss throughout his career, but his four interception game against their division rival had to be deflating. Matt Forte will likely not play this week due to a sprained ankle, so offseason signing Michael Bush will get the lion's share of the carries against the sub-standard run defense of the Rams.
Just like the previous two weeks, the Rams should hang tough for much of the game. The problem will be the combination of the strong running of Michael Bush and a Chicago front four that should be able to generate consistent pressure on Sam Bradford.
Prediction: Chicago 24, Rams 20
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns
The Bills were able to shake off their poor week one performance against the Jets, hammering Kansas City 35-17. The running game is the best in the NFL, and C.J. Spiller has run for 292 yards on 29 carries through two games. Defensively, Buffalo also looked much better, forcing three turnovers and sacking K.C. quarterback Matt Cassel five times. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was put into more of a game-manager role, attempting only 19 passes, but still threw two touchdowns. Buffalo would be wise to use their run-first model more often, limiting the gambling nature of Fitzpatrick, while also keeping their defense fresh.
Cleveland has given two great efforts this season, but both still wound up in defeats to the Eagles and Bengals. Rookies QB Brandon Weeden (322 yards, 2 TD) and RB Trent Richardson (145 total yards, 2 TD) both looked much better against Cincinnati. The problem for Cleveland has been the amount of yards given up, as they currently rank 29th in the league in total yards allowed. While they have recorded eight sacks and five interceptions thus far, consistently surrendering big plays puts a young offense behind the eight ball, and eventually wears down the defense.
Buffalo has struggled on the road recently, and Cleveland is a scrappy team on both sides of the ball. The differentiator in this game will be the strong play of Buffalo's offensive line, which has opened up big holes in the running game, and is the only unit yet to allow a sack in 2012.
Prediction: Bills 30, Browns 19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Despite a late-game letdown that saw the team blow an eleven-point fourth quarter lead against the defending champions, the Buccaneers have proved they are no longer a team that will be taken out of the game. The defense was able to intercept Eli Manning three times, but still surrendered 604 total yards to a Giants team that struggled to generate yards against the Cowboys. While a scrappy unit, the defense is still a work in progress. Offensively, Tampa Bay has looked better in all phases, as Josh Freeman has enjoyed a stronger running game with rookie Doug Martin, while Vincent Jackson has been productive while opening up more opportunities for third-year wide receiver Mike Williams.
Dallas wasn't able to generate much of anything against the Seahawks, and the run defense didn't hold up to the 'Hawks solid running game in a 27-7 defeat. Despite being down just six points at halftime, the Cowboys almost completely abandoned the running game, as DeMarco Murray ended up with just 12 carries. The team was able to generate some pressure on the quarterback, with Anthony Spencer recording both Dallas sacks. The bi-product of being unable to run the ball is a worn down defense, as Dallas lost the time of possession battle by over 9 minutes.
While long thought of as a bright future coach, Jason Garrett is very much on the hot seat for a Cowboys team that has consistently underachieved. The Buccaneers could pose some problems with Dallas, but they lack the offensive firepower or consistent pass rush to take down the Cowboys in this one.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 17
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Blaine Gabbert was given more weapons this offseason, and while he has thrown 3 touchdowns without an interception on the season, he's still only completing 51.7% of his passes through two games. Maurice Jones-Drew has been just okay this season, though part of that has to do with playing against a dominant Texans defense. Jacksonville is also surrendering 400 yards a game, while only forcing one turnover on the season. Part of that is due to a pass rush that has generated just two sacks this season. The rush defense is also a concern, as they are surrendering an average of 169.5 yards per game (31st in NFL).
Indianapolis played well for most of their win against the Vikings, but surrendered a 14-point fourth quarter lead because of their inability to stop Vikings QB Christian Ponder. First overall pick Andrew Luck then marched the team downfield with just seconds left, setting up the game-winning Adam Vinatieri field goal. The Colts run defense has improved this year, allowing just over 100 yards per game on the season, but will need better cornerback play, as they've surrendered an average of 273 yards through the air. Indianapolis' pass rush has still been solid, but the availability of injured OLB Dwight Freeney remains up in the air.
I like the Colts in a low-scoring game, as I believe Andrew Luck should have time to throw against the Jaguars, and the emergence of WR Donnie Avery as a solid underneath option will free up Reggie Wayne.
Prediction: Colts 20, Jaguars 13
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
The story for the Jets passing game will be whether they're able to protect QB Mark Sanchez. The offensive line did a great job in week one against the Bills, but regressed against the usually-solid Pittsburgh defense. The Jet defense was strong against the Steelers running game this past week, allowing just 66 yards on 28 carries, but struggled defending the pass, as Ben Roethlisberger (24-31, 275 yards, 2 TD) pretty much had his way against a New York secondary that was without Darrelle Revis.
Miami's strong running game (265 yards) and solid defensive performance battered a road-weary Raiders team last Sunday. The recipe for success for the Dolphins will be to use the running game to keep pressure off of Ryan Tannehill, whose play was significantly better against Oakland (18-30, 200 yards, TD).
The Dolphins success will be predicated on their ability to run the ball and protect the quarterback, tow areas that the Jets are pretty good at defending.
Prediction: Jets 23, Dolphins 17
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
San Francisco has looked stellar to start the season, as Alex Smith has continued to progress as a QB (115.9 QB rating), while the defense has been it's usual stellar self. Running back Frank Gore also seems to be revitalized (100.5 rush yards/game), while the additions of wide receivers Mario Manningham (7-57) and Randy Moss (5-61) have taken some of the defensive focus off of Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis.
The Vikings are still likely limiting Adrian Peterson's touches some, as Peterson still doesn't quite look to be 100% recovered from a torn ACL. Offensive line play has also been a concern for Minnesota, as quarterback Christian Ponder has been sacked six times. On defense, the team has yet to force a turnover against two young QBs to start the season.
The 49ers are just too strong on defense and efficient enough on offense for the Vikings to be able to handle.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Vikings 10
Kansas City Chiefs @ New Orleans Saints
Kansas City has looked downright awful defensively this season, surrendering 75 combined points through two games, while only recording one sack and no interceptions. On offense, the team is gaining yards, but five turnovers by quarterback Matt Cassel has been very costly.
New Orleans' defense has also allowed 75 points through the first two weeks of the season, while being almost completely unable to stop two middling teams in Washington and Carolina. The team clearly missed head coach Sean Payton, who is suspended for the season due to his role in "Bountygate". Drew Brees is averaging over 300 yards per game, but is completing just 54.5% of his passes, and has thrown an equal number of touchdowns and interceptions (4 apiece).
While the Saints are clearly floundering, a home game against a struggling Chiefs team should be a recipe for success.
Prediction: Saints 31, Chiefs 24
Detroit Lions @ Tennessee Titans
The Lions have shown some improved pass protection of QB Matthew Stafford, but the team will need him to make better decisions with the football (four interceptions), as he tends to force balls into tight windows. Detroit would also benefit from more production out of the running game, as the team is averaging just 82.5 yards per game. On defense, the pass rush has looked solid (seven sacks), but that hasn't translated into forced turnovers.
Tennessee has looked downright awful on offense, and Chris Johnson is being out-gained on the ground by his quarterback Jake Locker (32-21) through two games. The offensive line play has been especially poor, and the defense simply cannot stop anyone thus far.
Detroit needs to play better, and should show well against a Tennessee team that has yet to show anything on defense.
Prediction: Lions 27, Titans 14
Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Redskins
The Bengals defense has yet to play to 2011 form, as injuries have played a part in the team surrendering 71 points. The team has generated a decent pass rush (five sacks), but will need better secondary play if they hope to reach the playoffs. Andy Dalton has already been sacked ten times this season, as the offensive line has yet to really gel in pass protection.
The 'Skins are now going to be without LB Brian Orakpo and DE Adam Carriker for the season, and the defense had a poor showing against the rebuilding Rams, allowing 31 points. Robert Griffin III had another respectable game, and Alfred Morris also performed well on the ground. The team could also be without WR Pierre Garcon due to injury.
While Cincinnati hasn't looked great this season, the lack of a pass rush from Washington (or someone to match up with WR A.J. Green) will be the difference.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Redskins 23
Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals
The Eagles are very fortunate to be 2-0, as it took two late-game scoring drives to beat the Browns and Ravens. Michael Vick (six interceptions, one fumble lost) will have to do a better job of protecting the football, as the Eagles have a whopping nine turnovers. Jeremy Maclin will miss the game due to a hip injury, but DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek can help offset that loss.
Arizona's offense has looked horrendous, and QB Kevin Kolb will need to do a better job of finding WR Larry Fitzgerald who recorded just one catch for four yards against the Patriots. The defense has been absolutely outstanding, as they've done a great job of generating pressure on the quarterback (seven sacks, two interceptions), and held the vaunted Patriots offense to 19 points last week.
While it'd be a great story for the Cardinals to move to 3-0, the Eagles will do a better job of protecting the ball, and win a close game.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Cardinals 16
Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers
While a 2-0 start is great for the Falcons, there are still some concerns for the team. The running game has yet to really get it going on the season, as Falcons running backs have totaled 106 yards on 41 carries. The good news for Atlanta is that the passing game has been stellar, as Matt Ryan has yet to throw an interceptions, and weapons like WRs Julio Jones and Roddy White, as well as TE Tony Gonzalez have been simply stellar.
The Chargers two wins against the Raiders and Titans were absolutely dominant, but both of their opponents have played downright awful to start the season. It doesn't appear that Philip Rivers is missing WR Vincent Jackson too much, as Malcolm Floyd has picked up the slack (10-175-1). On defense, the team has done a great job of stopping the run, but will need another pass rusher to step up and help LB Shaun Phillips (2.5 sacks).
The Falcons have not been great on the road in recent seasons, and a beat up Falcons secondary is going to struggle against the Chargers passing game. Still, I just think Matt Ryan has more offensive weapons, and the running game will eventually come around.
UPSET OF THE WEEK!!!!! Falcons 26, Chargers 23
Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos
The Texans continued the positive momentum built from a great 2011 season, and having a healthy Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson add another dimension to this team. Despite that, the Texans are now known for two things: a stellar running game and a ferocious pass-rush. The ability to harass the passer has allowed the secondary to make plays against rushed quarterbacks, leading to three interceptions.
Peyton Manning didn't look as good in his second regular season game, as his timing seemed just a bit off against the Falcons. Protecting Manning is paramount, and the team will need continued production out of the running game, as Willis McGahee has looked good through two games.
The Texans haven't ever had much success against Peyton-led teams, but this team is vastly different than the ones Manning would see when he started for the Colts.
Prediction: Texans 20, Broncos 17
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Oakland Raiders
The lack of a running game (70.5 yards/game) and poor pass protection (eight sacks allowed) are the two biggest areas of concern for the 1-1 Steelers. The good news is that Ben Roethlisberger has been strong, and the receiving tandem of Mike Wallace (9-111-2) and Antonio Brown (11-153) are among the best receiving tandems in football. Defensively, the team was able to shut down the Jets in all phases, despite being without Troy Polamalu and James Harrison.
Oakland's running game has yet to get going this season, as Darren McFadden has totaled just 54 yards on 26 carries. Carson Palmer is averaging 335 yards per game passing with just one total interception, but has had to play catchup through his first two games. The defense was absolutely demolished by the Miami running game last week, and has totaled just two sacks this season.
Oakland's inability to stop the run or rush the passer will help Pittsburgh take this one.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Raiders 21
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens
Tom Brady and the Patriots will be looking to bounce back from a home loss to the Cardinals last week. The Patriots offense is nearly unstoppable, except when the offensive line is unable to protect Tom Brady, as was the case last week against Arizona. TE Aaron Hernandez's ankle injury will put added pressure on the running game. On defense, the team has been able to make some plays, but has yet to play against what could be considered a respectable offensive team.
The Ravens should probably be 2-0, but the team struggled to capitalize on Philadelphia turnovers. I'd also like to see Ray Rice get more carries, as it seems as though the team forgets who their best offensive player is. While the teams defensive leaders are approaching the end of their careers, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are still making plays and their vocal leadership is key to the teams' success.
In a tight contest, I think the Ravens will be able to pressure Brady, and the ability of Ray Rice on the ground and in the passing game are the difference.
Prediction: Ravens 22, Patriots 20
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
The Packer passing game has yet to truly get on track this season, as an inability to protect Aaron Rodgers (eight sacks allowed) has led to merely average production in the passing game. The signing of Cedric Benson hasn't really produced different results in the running game, as his 3.4 yards per carry average is sub-par. The good news for Green Bay is their pass rush has been stellar, racking up a league-high eleven sacks, with Clay Matthews notching six of those.
Seattle's success this season will be predicated largely on the success of the ground game as they break in rookie quarterback Russell Wilson. The offensive line has done a good job of opening up holes for running back Marshawn Lynch, but still needs to improve their pass protection. On defense, Seattle has been extra stout against the run. allowing just 46.5 yards per game on the ground (2nd in NFL), but will need to generate some sort of pass rush going forward, with just one total sack.
Seattle is a great team at home, and could have some success on the ground against the Packers. The problem will be their inability to generate pressure on the quarterback, as Aaron Rodgers should be able to find success through the air.
Prediction: Packers 24, Seahawks 17
Last Week: 8-6
Season: 17-12
No comments:
Post a Comment