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Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Cam Newton (3 turnovers) and company looked awful in their 36-7 home loss to the Giants. The team's bugaboo from last season also hasn't improved much, as they currently rank 28th in the league in rush defense. Perhaps even more concerning is the lack of production out of the running game, as DeAngelo Williams, Mike Tolbert and Jonathan Stewart have totaled just 178 yards on 48 carries this season.
Atlanta appears to have everything it takes to be a real Super Bowl contender, and a 27-3 thumping against the Chargers in San Diego furthered that notion. Matt Ryan appears on the verge of being a perennial Pro Bowl quarterback, as he's thrown for 793 yards and 8 touchdowns (against one interception) on the season. The running game could be better (just 86.7 yards/game), but a reduced workload for Michael Turner should help keep both him and Jacquizz Rodgers (his spell back) healthy.
There's not much to like for the Panthers here, as the Falcons running game should get back on track, and the Panthers can't match up with Atlanta's receiving corps.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Panthers 17.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
The Patriots fell on a last-second field goal against the Ravens, and find themselves at just 1-2 on the season. The biggest concern for New England has got to be the team's struggles to protect quarterback Tom Brady, as they've surrendered seven sacks through three games. While that number is not particularly high, Brady has been under almost constant pressure the past two games. The protection has also caused tight end Rob Gronkowski to become more of a blocker in the passing game, which has resulted in a more pedestrian stat line (14-152-2).
Buffalo was able to shut down the Cleveland running game last week, and the pass rush recorded five sacks of Brandon Weeden in their 24-14 win. Despite back-to-back wins, a shoulder injury to C.J. Spiller has his status for Sunday's game in question, though the Bills could very well see the return of fellow running back Fred Jackson. On a positive note, Ryan Fitzpatrick has had solid outings the past two games, throwing five touchdowns without an interception.
I think the Bills will be able to pressure Tom Brady, but a young Bills secondary will struggle to cover Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker. The Jackson and Spiller injuries also make it difficult for me to take the Bills.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Bills 24.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Minnesota pulled off the upset of week three, beating San Francisco 24-13. The team controlled the clock and game by running for 146 yards on 41 attempts, and was also able to keep quarterback Christian Ponder upright against a ferocious pass rush. Wide receiver Percy Harvin (27-277) has also been productive in the passing game, while tight end Kyle Rudolph (13-138-3) has given Ponder another underneath receiver. The Vikings defense has also been respectable, ranking in the top ten in total yards (8th), passing yards (8th) and points allowed (9th).
Detroit was in an absolutely ridiculous game, coming up short after scoring two touchdowns in the final minute of their contest against Tennessee before losing in overtime. Running back Mikel Leshoure got his first NFL action after missing all of his rookie season due to injury, and rushed for 100 yards on 26 carries. The running game will be vital to the success of the offense, as it should take some of the burden off of Matthew Stafford (863 yards, 3 TD, 4 INT), who has struggled to repeat his 2011 success. The run defense is much improved from 2011, but the team is allowing 250.3 yards per game through the air, and have yet to intercept a pass.
Despite Stafford's struggles thus far, I just can't see this team falling to 1-3. The running game and ability to stop the run should be enough in a close game.
Prediction: Lions 24, Vikings 20.
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Former 2,000 yard rusher Chris Johnson appears to be a back in quick decline, as he's followed up a disappointing 2011 season by averaging just 1.4 yards per carry this season (15 yards per game). Jake Locker looked solid in the team's shootout win against Detroit, racking up nearly 400 passing yards. The status of tight end Jared Cook and wide receiver Kenny Britt could put even more pressure on the running game, and Tennessee might need to look at Javon Ringer if Johnson continues to struggle.
Matt Schaub and the Texans may not have the most explosive offense in the league, but they are one of the most well-balanced. The team rank among the best in the league in time of possession (1st), points (5th), rushing yards (5th) and total yards (7th). Second-year defensive end J.J. Watt (5.5 sacks) has already become one of the premiere five-technique ends in the league, as he has a non-stop motor and plays with great leverage. Houston is also great on defense, as they are among the top five in total yards (2nd), points allowed (3rd), passing yards (4th) and rushing yards (5th).
The Texans should win in impressive fashion, as the Titans have too many issues.
Prediction: Texans 33, Titans 14.
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Despite being throttled at home against the Falcons, the Chargers shouldn't get too far down. The team saw running back Ryan Matthews return from a shoulder injury that cost him the first two regular season games. Antonio Gates should also be a full-go this weekend, giving Philip Rivers another option in the passing game. San Diego has also been stellar against the run, limiting opponents to just 67.3 yards per game (4th in the NFL).
Kansas City appeared dead in the water in the third quarter against the Saints, but overcame an 18-point deficit to down New Orleans. Jamaal Charles ran all over the Saints defense, totaling 223 yards on the ground, sparking the comeback with a 91-yard touchdown run. Kansas City will need to do a better job of protecting the football, as they've totaled nine turnovers on the season. One way to do this is better pass protection, as Matt Cassel has been sacked 11 times through three games.
2011 saw absolute parity in the AFC West, as the entire division was separated by just a single game. The Chiefs aren't strong at stopping the run, and will also struggle to run the ball against a stout Chargers defense.
Prediction: Chargers 23, Chiefs 20.
San Francisco 49ers @ New York Jets
After a poor showing against Minnesota, the 49ers will be looking to get back on track against the Jets. San Francisco struggled to stop the run, and weren't able to record a sack against the Vikings in their 24-13 road loss. Alex Smith also threw his first interception of the season, and the team abandoned the running game early, totaling just 20 carries (against 35 passes).
New York hasn't looked good since their season-opening win against the Bills, as they've split games against the Steelers and Dolphins. Early in his tenure, head coach Rex Ryan's team was recognized by two things: a strong running game and a strong defense. Through three games, the Jets have averaged just 100.3 yards per game on the ground (3.3/carry) while the defense has struggled to stop the run (148.7 yards/game) while totaling just three sacks. To make matters worse, the team will be without their best defensive player, as Darrelle Revis will miss the season after tearing his ACL against the Dolphins.
Mark Sanchez struggles against pressure, and New York's inability to run the football effectively could make this a long day against the 49ers.
Prediction: 49ers 24, Jets 10.
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
After a questionable "simultaneous catch" call gave Seattle a win over Green Bay on Monday night, the Seahawks will look to continue their strong play against the Rams. Running back Marshawn Lynch has ran for at least 85 yards in all three games this season, as the young Seahawks line has continued to be a solid run-blocking unit. The pass rush lit it up against Green Bay, totaling eight sacks of Aaron Rodgers in their win, while the defense was able to hold Green Bay to 12 points.
St. Louis was unable to protect Sam Bradford or establish the running game in their 23-6 loss to Chicago this past Sunday. While Bradford has looked better this season, the offensive line has not seen significant improvement, as the team is just 28th in total offense and surrendered 12 sacks. The team also need another receiving threat to pair with Danny Amendola (25-296-1), who is a Wes Welker-type clone.
Neither offense is very explosive, but the Seahawks' ability to run the ball and rush the passer gives Seattle the edge.
Prediction: Seahawks 17, Rams 13.
Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals
With the team breaking in rookie signal caller Ryan Tannehill, success for the Dolphins in 2012 will hinge entirely in the running game. With starter Reggie Bush (50-302-2) potentially out for the game, the team will rely on second-year Daniel Thomas and rookie Lamar Miller to carry the load. While Thomas is a physically imposing back, he's struggled with securing the football (2 fumbles lost), while Miller is the more natural runner and provides the team a more complete player. The Dolphins pass rush has totaled just four sacks on the season, which has allowed opponents to average 307.3 yards per game through the air.
Arizona is the surprise team in the NFL, as they absolutely handled two preseason favorites for the Super Bowl in consecutive weeks, beating the Patriots and Cardinals. The key to their success has been the defense, which has racked up 12 sacks (t-3rd in NFL), while limiting opponents to just 316 yards per game (10th) and 13.3 points (2nd). Kevin Kolb was able to generate offense against Philadelphia, and Larry Fitzgerald finally produced to his usual standards in a dominating 24-6 win (9-114-1).
Kolb seems as dialed in as ever with the Cardinals, and the defense should be able to control the Miami running game.
Prediction: Cardinals 20, Dolphins 14.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
The matchup to watch in this one will be the Broncos passing offense against a Raiders defense which has surrendered an average of 264.7 yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game through the air, while only averaging one sack per contest. I like the Broncos at home, as Peyton Manning should have the time to pick apart a vulnerable defensive backfield.
Prediction: Broncos 23, Raiders 13.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Bengals offense was in midseason form, as they totaled 478 yards in a 38-31 shootout win over the Redskins. Andy Dalton has been solid in his sophomore campaign, averaging 289 yards and two touchdown passes per game, while fellow second-year player A.J. Green entered week four #1 in the AFC in receiving yards (311). Defensively, the team is surrendering a lot of big plays, but still getting after the quarterback, registering 10 sacks.
Jacksonville quarterback Blaine Gabbert has shown better decision making and pocket awareness this season, but is still struggling to complete passes (50.6 completion percentage). The holdout didn't affect running back Maurice Jones-Drew very much, as he's averaging 104.7 yards per game on the ground. The defense has struggled a lot in 2012, as they're surrendering 412.3 yards per game (28th in NFL), while totaling just one interception and two sacks.
Cincinnati should be able to win this game, as BenJarvus Green-Ellis should find success against a poor Jaguars run defense. Even if they don't Jacksonville can't match up with Cincinnati in the passing game.
Prediction: Bengals 26, Jaguars 10.
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
The run defense continues to plague the Saints, as they blew an 18-point lead at home against the previously-winless Kansas City Chiefs this past Sunday. Defense in general has been a problem, as the New Orleans is a league worst in points allowed (34.0), total yards allowed (477.3) and rush yards allowed (215.0). The offense has been able to put up points (27.7 per game), but Drew Brees has thrown five interceptions while the offensive line has struggled to protect their quarterback (7 sacks allowed).
Green Bay should by all rights be 2-1, but the blown call on the last play of their game against Seattle cost them the win. Even still, the offense hasn't produced the big plays it did in 2011, as the line has been horrendous at protecting Aaron Rodgers (16 sacks allowed, worst in the league). The Greg Jennings injury doesn't help, and it seems as though the team misses former offensive coordinator (and current Dolphins head coach) Joe Philbin.
It sounds weird to say this early in the season, but this is a must-win for both teams. I like the Packers at home, as their defense has been better, and should be able to find success on the ground.
Prediction: Packers 24, Saints 19.
Washington Redskins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Robert Griffin III and the Redskins offense are leading the league in points scored (33.0 points per game), but stand just 1-2 due to their struggling defense (33.7 points and 429.3 yards per game allowed).
Despite spending on two of the biggest offensive names on the free agent market, Tampa Bay ranks last in the NFL in yards per game. The defense has been stellar against the run (47.3 per game), but have surrendered a league-worst 353.3 yards per game through the air.
I like Washington in this game, as the Buccaneers defense won't be able to stop Griffin's running or passing.
Prediction: Redskins 33, Buccaneers 23.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Eli Manning was stellar through the air against the Panthers, and the emergence of running back Andre Brown helped the Giants demolish Carolina last Thursday. With Ahmad Bradshaw's injury history, the Giants should seriously consider giving Brown the majority of the work in the backfield. The team appears it will be without starting wide receiver Hakeem Nicks this weekend, which will afford Ramses Barden an opportunity to build on a strong performance against Carolina (9-138).
Andy Reid could very well have a quarterback controversy on his hands, as Michael Vick's inability to protect the football cropped up again in their loss to Arizona. The offense has explosive players at every position, but Vick can't seem to take what the defense gives him, instead forcing throws that often result in a loss of possession. Rookie Nick Foles had a strong preseason, and while he may lack the athleticism or extraordinary arm strength Vick possesses, has shown an ability to make solid reads and get rid of the ball quickly.
New York's pass rush will cause problems for the Eagles offensive line, and the Giants should be able to get enough out of the passing game, even without Nicks, to prevail.
UPSET OF THE WEEK!!!! Prediction: Giants 28, Eagles 20.
Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys
Through three games, the Bears defense has been stellar, allowing just 279 yards and 16.7 points per game. They've also done a great job of generating pressure on the quarterback, totaling a league-high 14 sacks. For all the great things the defense has done, the offense has yet to do the same, averaging just 290 yards per game. While Brandon Marshall has been productive since being reunited with former quarterback Jay Cutler (16-214-1), Cutler has continued to make poor decisions (six interceptions against three touchdown passes).
Dallas is leading the league in total yards allowed (250.0 per game) and have yet to surrender a passing touchdown on the season. The Cowboys have leaned heavily on quarterback Tony Romo, but would benefit from tight end Jason Witten returning to his pre-spleen injury form, as well as involving DeMarco Murray and the running game more. Murray has just 30 rush attempts the past two games.
The Cowboys secondary has been very good this season, and the combination of their strong play and a solid pass rush should put the Cowboys on top.
Prediction: Cowboys 20, Bears 17.
Last Week: 8-7 (.533)
Season: 25-19 (.568)
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