Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Western Conference Preview: Northwest Division

This is the third of six NBA divisional previews. Below are links to previous installments.
Pacific Division, Southwest Division

Oklahoma City Thunder

What's New: Former Boston College poing guard Reggie Jackson will bring another very good athlete for the Thunder backcourt. Jackson has a ridiculous 7'0" wingspan despite being only 6'3", has great athleticism, and is likely a contingency plan at point guard if it becomes clear to management that Russell Westbrook can't co-exist. Second rounder Robert Vaden slumped in his senior year at UAB, seeing his shooting percentages drop across the board, but will be given an opportunity to find a role as a three point specialist in Oklahoma City.
Biggest Concern: Scoring in the frontcourt is still a priority, as Serge Ibaka still gets the majority of his points off of mid-range jumpers and putbacks, and Kendrick Perkins is basically a defensive specialist. Nazr Mohammed and Nick Collison can both score some in the post, but likely won't see consistent enough minutes.
Outlook: The Thunder are an up-and-coming young team that made the Western Conference Finals last season. This team has plenty of offensive firepower, and head coach Scott Brooks has done a great job of getting this team to buy into defense as well. I expect that the Thunder will likely win the Northwest division this season, and have at least a decent chance of representing the Western Conference in the NBA Finals this year if they can improve from three (.316) and have Serge Ibaka improve as a scorer in the post.

Portland Trailblazers
What's New: Point guard Nolan Smith arrives after a successful four years under Mike Krzyzewski. Smith is a potent combo guard who plays solid defense and will make smart decisions, something that could land him in head coach Nate McMillan's playing rotation. Veteran point guard Raymond Felton was traded to Portland for Andre Miller, and will be playing for a new contract. Felton will spread the floor better than Andre Miller, but I do have some concerns about his conditioning, as he's prone to working his way into shape during the season. SG Elliot Williams will make his return following surgery on his knee early in last season, though it will be hard for Williams to find the court.
Biggest Concern: Health. This team has a glut of talented but oft-injured players. Brandon Roy may or may not be an amnesty casualty, as he still has four years and over $60 million left on his contract. If Roy can't return to his All-Star form following multiple knee procedures, the Blazers might have no choice but to let him go (though it appears he'll get this season to show what he's still capable of). Greg Oden hasn't played in an NBA game for almost two years, but is on pace to return to playing some time in January (provided he accepts the Blazers $8+ million qualifying offer, which makes him an unrestricted free agent). Marcus Camby (37) is in the final year of his contract, and has fought injuries throughout his career, including missing 23 games last season.
Outlook: If healthy, the Blazers have one of the most talented rosters in the league. The contributions of Greg Oden and Brandon Roy will be the key to the Blazers season, and if even just one of them can stay healthy for the season, this team could make a deep playoff run. If not, the Blazers may try and re-build around new franchise cornerstone LaMarcus Aldridge, who posted All-Star worthy numbers last season as the focus of Portland's offense (21.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists).

Denver Nuggets

What's New: Power forward Kenneth Faried of Morehead State will give the Nuggest a high energy big man who will crash the boards and play hard nosed-defense on both sides of the ball. Faried will likely see limited minutes, but will be a fan favorite in no time. Fellow first rounder Jordan Hamilton will likely contribute more than most anticipated before the lockout due to the fact both Wilson Chandler and J.R. Smith are both under contract with Chinese teams through their season's end in March. Hamilton has a good shooting stroke, but sometimes struggles with shot selection, and sometimes plays selfish. Andre Miller comes over from Portland to mentor and back up Ty Lawson, who has been given the reigns to the offense.
Biggest Concern: Stan Kroenke is an owner that doesn't want to pay the luxury tax, so it'll be interesting to see if he tries to re-sign free agents Nene and Arron Afflalo. Nene will likely garner a salary in the area of $10 million per season, and has indicated he's willing to accept less money in order to compete for a championship, which is something the Nuggets might not be able to offer.
Outlook: The Nuggets will be among the league leaders in scoring, but without Kenyon Martin (and likely Nene) the team will struggle against opponents with good front lines. If Gallinari and Lawson continue to grow, the Nuggets will have a shot for the postseason, but I believe the likely departure of Nene will be too much to overcome this season.

Utah Jazz

What's New: The Jazz acquired center Enes Kanter (3rd overall) and shooting guard Alec Burks (12th) on draft night. Kanter hasn't played organized basketball since his senior year in high school due to being ineligible in what was supposed to be his freshman year at Kentucky. Kanter has a well rounded game, and good touch on his jumper, which extends to about 16 feet. Burks is a lights out shooter from Colorado, and will give the Jazz another backcourt playmaker to pair with point guard Devin Harris.
Biggest Concern: It seems the Jazz are stuck between rebuilding and trying to build a contending team. Andrei Kirilenko is currently signed with Russian team CSKA Moscow, and even if he does return to the NBA, I have doubts he re-signs with Utah. Young center Kyrylo Fesenko is also a free agent, and teams always look for able-bodied big men. Fesenko may not be the most agile player, but does a good job of using his big frame setting screens, as well as crashing the boards.
Outlook: The Jazz have a glut of big men, including Kanter, Mehmet Okur, Derrick Favors, Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. The team will likely need to trade at least one of them, with Okur (and his expiring $10.89 million contract), and Jefferson (2 years, $29 million) the most likely candidates. If the team can move one of them for a quality small forward on a reasonable contract (the new CBA is much more flexible in regards to trades), this team will be in the hunt for a playoff berth.

Minnesota Timberwolves

What's New: The Timberwolves will see the long-awaited debut of Spanish point guard Ricky Rubio this season. Rubio is an adept ball-handler, and can make seemingly impossible passes. He doesn't shoot the ball particularly well, and his athleticism is average at best, but he will bring excitement to the Twin Cities. Also heading to Minneapolis is #2 overall pick Derrick Williams. The combo forward from Arizona tore up the Pac-10 (now Pac-12) last season, and plays with more tenacity on both ends of the floor than fellow combo forward Michael Beasley (who also happens to be his teammate). Combo guard Malcolm Lee was brought in to provide depth at both guard spots, and was first team Pac-10 and defensive first team in the Pac-10. Lee's outside shooting still needs refinement (29.5% on three's last season at UCLA), but with his length and defensive abilities, he may find a role as a situational defensive player, or even crack the back end of the rotation. New head coach Rick Adelman takes over here, and will likely find a way to work the offense through Rubio's strength, the pick and roll, with All-Pro power forward Kevin Love. The team also acquired veteran center Brad Miller, a post who the team can run Adelman's high post offense through.
Biggest Concern: GM David Kahn has shown to use "interesting" strategies in the draft and through trade, as in 2009, he selected four point guards, including back-to-back picks of Rubio and Jonny Flynn. This year, he selected Derrick Williams, who will likely compete for minutes with Michael Beasley (who Williams has drawn comparisons to), as well as 2010 #4 overall pick Wesley Johnson.
Outlook: There is a good amount of talent on this team, but GM David Kahn is prone to making head-scratching decisions. How quickly Rubio adapts his style of play to the NBA game will determine how well this team can do. Adelman is a good coach who should be able to take this team from NBA laughingstock to respectability. This team is still probably one year away from competing for a playoff spot, but there is a lot of young (if duplicate) talent on this team.

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