Western Conference Preview: Southwest Division

In the first of six NBA pre-season previews, I'll be giving you my thoughts on each of the NBA's six divisions, my prediction on their season finish, as well as their biggest needs.
Dallas Mavericks
Whats New: Rudy Fernandez was acquired by the Mavs on draft night from Portland. Fernandez has the ability to slash, but playing alongside Dirk Nowitzki, will likely be asked to simply spot up on the wing and shoot the three when the ball is kicked to him off the double-team of Nowitzki.
Biggest Concern: The ability to sign their own free agents, specifically C Tyson Chandler, who played a huge role for Dallas in their run to the franchise's first NBA Championship. I expect to see J.J. Barea back in Dallas, as he (along with Jason Terry), provide offensive firepower off the bench. The most interesting of their potential free agents may be Caron Butler, as he missed the final 53 regular season games, as well as the postseason. At 31 years old, Butler's injury history has to be a concern, but can still be a productive player and plus defender if healthy.
Outlook: With the talent on the roster, the Mavericks are virtually a lock for the postseason. Their ability to defend their title will have a lot to do on whether Chandler decides to re-sign with the Mavericks. If he doesn't, Brendan Haywood will need to stay out of foul trouble, something he struggled to do consistently last season.

San Antonio Spurs

What's New: The Spurs brought in some talented young players from the Draft. Kawhi Leonard will bring athleticism at the wing, and an ability to crash the boards from the small forward position that will remind some of Gerald Wallace. F Davis Bertans is a project who will likely spend at least another season with his Slovenian professional team to add some bulk before he comes over. G Cory Joseph didn't put up big numbers in his one season at Texas, but shot 41% from beyond the arc that year, and will have an opportunity to earn the backup spot behind Tony Parker.
Biggest Concern: The core members of this team are all seemingly peaked (Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili), or on the down side of their careers (Tim Duncan, Richard Jefferson). San Antonio sent productive combo guard George Hill to Indiana for the draft rights to Leonard, and will need either rookie G Cory Joseph or second year man Gary Neal to fill that role for this team to be successful.
Outlook: With Duncan aging, this team needs the supporting cast to take more of a step up. The Spurs will need either third-year big DeJuan Blair or second-year center Tiago Splitter to take a step forward, as Antonio McDyess' return for a 16th season is up in the air. If this team can stay healthy, there's still no reason to believe they can't reach the postseason.

Memphis Grizzlies


What's New: Rookie G Josh Selby has first round talent, but slid to the second round due to character and work ethic issues. Selby didn't produce much in his first year at Kansas, and would have likely benefitted from another year under Bill Self.
Biggest Concern: Marc Gasol is a restriced free agent, and owner Michael Heisley has stated the Grizzlies plan to match any offer he receives. The team has a glut of wings, but Shane Battier provided the team with another skilled perimeter defender to pair with Tony Allen. Battier is also a solid three point shooter from the corner, and if he signs elsewhere, Memphis will need one of their young players (O.J. Mayo, Xavier Henry) to fill one of those roles.
Outlook: Assuming Gasol re-signs in Memphis, re-incorporating Rudy Gay to a post-geared offense will be key, as he only played in 33 games last season. Zach Randolph and Gasol make up one of the best rebouding and scoring frontcourts in the league, and if Rudy is willing to play off those two, this team could make a run for the Southwest division title.

New Orleans Hornets


What's New: David West opting out of his contract just before the lockout was a pretty big surprise considering he tore his ACL in February.
Biggest Concern: Chris Paul has made it clear he doesn't want to be in New Orleans after this season, as he is refusing to negotiate a contract extension with the team. Paul has been the face of the franchise since he was drafted fourth overall in 2005, but with the league taking ownership from penny-pinching former owner George Shinn, the uncertainty in NOLA is unsettling.
Outlook: Both of their top post scoring threats (West, Carl Landry) are free agents, and the odds are both will depart in free agency. Trading Paul would be very unpopular, but he will likely command a very high price. New Orleans just doesn't have enough organizational stability or talent (with or without Paul) to make the playoffs this year, but should the Hornets trade him, they'll likely get a better deal than what Denver got for Carmelo Anthony last season.

Houston Rockets


What's New: The retirement of Yao Ming was a blow to this team, but the fact is they're used to playing without him. Rookie Donatas Montiejunas was traded (along with Jonny Flynn) to Minnesota for Brad Miller and 23rd overall pick Nikola Mirotic, has drawn comparisons to Dirk Nowitzki, but will need to add bulk in order to have a chance to live up to that lofty praise. Marcus Morris is a 4/5 combo big man who can block shots and also has an underrated jump shot with the potential for range extending to the three point line. Second rounder Chandler Parsons is a 6'9 SF capable of playing the "stretch" 4, and is a solid passer (3.8 assists/game for Florida last season). Kevin McHale takes over for Rick Adelman as the head coach.
Biggest Concern: Replacing Yao Ming's production is not possible, but this team has gotten used to playing without Ming. The team will need to lean on Luis Scola for post scoring early, and hope Morris and Montiejunas can contribute quickly.
Outlook: There is a good amount of young talent on this team, but it will likely take at least one full season together until this team can start playing to its potential, as McHale will not have had the luxury of a full training camp and preseason to implement his offensive and defensive philosphies. There is enough athleticism on this team that they should be fun to watch, and both Kyle Lowry and Kevin Martin are aggressive guards that attack the rim and draw fouls frequently.