Monday, January 21, 2013

NBA Rookie Future Rankings

With the NBA season now nearly halfway over, I thought now might be a good time to forecast where I see the 2012/2013 rookies might be in three years from now, at what would be the end of their rookie contracts. In this article, I'll be basing this on current production, potential for playing time and room for growth.

1.  Anthony Davis, New Orleans Hornets (age: 19)
The #1 pick in the draft had to deal with an ankle injury which caused him to miss over a month of action, but Davis has a great combination of length, quickness and athleticism that is so rare in a player of his size. Throw in his high basketball IQ and unselfishness and you have the makings of a perennial All-Star. As he adds more muscle to his frame, Davis could become one of the best power forwards in the league.

2.  Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons (age: 19)
While his free throw shooting is as horrendous as advertised, Drummond has great timing with shot-blocking and a nose for rebounds. As his offensive game continues to evolve, he'll become a nightmare to play against, and is a great compliment to teammate Greg Monroe in the frontcourt as it currently stands. With current starter Jason Maxiell set to hit free agency and Jonas Jerebko better suited as a reserve, Drummond's future is very bright, as he won't turn 20 until August.

3.  Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers (age: 22)
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the NBA season has been how smoothly Lillard has transitioned from playing at Weber State (of the Big Sky Conference) to the NBA. Lillard has solid physical tools, and an above-average basketball IQ that have helped make him the Rookie of the Year frontrunner. While he may not have the upside of some of the other players on this list, Lillard is already on the precipice of becoming a top-10 point guard who could eventually reach the top-5 at some point with some improvements on defense (specifically in the pick-and-roll) and shot selection.

4.  Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte Bobcats (age: 19)
Kidd-Gilchrist will get plenty of opportunities to improve, as he already gets the lion's-share of minutes at small forward, and with swingman Gerald Henderson hitting potentially hitting restricted free agency this offseason, there could be more opportunities on the offensive end. The Bobcats will likely lean heavily on MKG, along with second-year point guard Kemba Walker and center Bismack Biyombo to build towards the future.

5.  Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors (age: 20)
The #5 pick in the 2011 draft, Valanciunas has played well in his first NBA season as he's averaging nearly a rebound every four minutes. He plays with energy on both ends of the court, and has the footspeed to be a very good defender in pick-and-roll situations. His offensive game still needs some polish and he'll need to cut down on his fouls (though playing alongside a defensive liability like Andrea Bargnani doesn't help), but Valanciunas is an exciting young player with the upside to be a top-10 center down the road.

6.  Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards (age: 19)
After a slow start to his NBA career, Beal has picked up his production as the return of John Wall and Nene have taken some of the pressure to create shots off his shoulders. Beal is a bit short for a two-guard at 6'4", but has a strong frame and has shown the ability to attack off the dribble. While he's probably not destined to ever become a #1 option as he sometimes struggles to create his own shot, he can be a great secondary option down the road.

7.  Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors (age: 20)
Barnes has begun to get more consistent minutes from head coach Mark Jackson, but still has to compete with Richard Jefferson for minutes. Barnes has a polished game, and while he lacks elite athleticism, he's shown the ability to create his own shot, though his scoring output will likely be limited by playing alongside two high-usage guards in Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.

8.  Dion Waiters, Cleveland Cavaliers (age: 21)
Waiters isn't a true spot-up shooting threat, so he may actually be best suited as a scorer off the bench, especially playing alongside such a dynamic point guard like Kyrie Irving. Whether Waiters starts or not, he'll need to improve his shot selection, as on occasion he interrupts the flow of the offense with ill-timed shots and/or drives. Waiters' body is strong enough, but may be better suited to drop a few pounds, as at 221, he's a bit heavy for being just 6'4".

9.  Thomas Robinson, Sacramento Kings (age: 21)
While he's struggled shooting the ball some against the length of NBA bigs, Robinson continues to rebound at a high level. There is quite a logjam for minutes in front of him, including Jason Thompson and Chuck Hayes, but Robinson's energy on the boards, in defense and transition would make him a great compliment to the talented (but volatile) DeMarcus Cousins.

10.  Jeremy Lamb, Oklahoma City Thunder (age: 20)
Lamb has barely played this year for the Thunder after being acquired in the James Harden trade, but has a quick release on his jumper, and the length to be a great defender. With Kevin Martin hitting free agency this offseason, there is the potential to see Lamb fill Martin's (and before him Harden) role as the team's sixth man.

Also in the running: Terrence Jones, Houston Rockets; Terrence Ross, Toronto Raptors; Tony Wroten Memphis Grizzlies; Alexey Shved, Minnesota Timberwolves; Andrew Nicholson, Orlando Magic; Meyers Leonard, Portland Trail Blazers

2 comments:

  1. As always, good read, would have liked to see what you thought of leonard, I think he has allot of potential, but he seems lost at times.

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  2. Leonard has a lot of athletic upside, but his ankle injury and subsequent reduction in minutes once returning have made it harder to see where he could end up. Athletically, Leonard has everything teams look for in a center, but he still needs to add more lower body strength to anchor defensively against some of the better centers in the league. He also has to improve his on-court awareness, but should be able to improve with a combination of playing time and film study. Ultimately, I think Leonard's "floor" is probably that of a 15-minute per night backup, but his "ceiling" is probably as a solid starter.

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