Saturday, January 12, 2013

2012/13 NFL Predictions: Divisional Round

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos
The Ravens were able to get a win in what was the final home game of linebacker Ray Lewis' career. Lewis has been the vocal and emotional leader of the Ravens since being drafted out of Miami (FL) in 1996, and his presence will be missed, not only on the field, but also in the locker room. Baltimore's passing game produced some big plays against the Colts, and will need to continue to do so in this game.
After their first-round bye, Denver should be well-rested and prepared, as the Broncos were the hottest team in the league, winning their last eleven games of the regular season. Peyton Manning hasn't had a lot of success in cold-weather playoff games, so the Broncos could use a heavy dose of Knowshon Moreno against a surprisingly pedestrian Ravens run defense.
The Broncos pass-rush, headed by Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, will keep Flacco under pressure for a lot of the game. The Ravens will also be going up against the #2 total defense and #4 scoring defense in the league this past season, which is no small task. To make matters worse, they're playing a rested team that plays nearly a mile-above sea level, so the Broncos will likely run a lot of no-huddle to keep the Ravens from substituting. Barring a Manning letdown, the Broncos move on the AFC Championship game.
Prediction: Broncos 27, Ravens 17.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
Green Bay finally appears to be totally healthy on offense, and the both sides of the ball were clicking on all cylinders in their win against the Vikings. While Green Bay was fortunate to face backup quarterback Joe Webb, there's no denying the Packers looked like a different team with a healthy receiving corps, which has been bolstered by the return of Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson. Perhaps most important is the improved run defense against 2,000 yard rusher Adrian Peterson. While Peterson was able to produce 99 yards, the team did a much better job of tackling, as the return of veterans Charles Woodson definitely helped.
The 49ers were able to get the bye with Green Bay's week seventeen loss to the Vikings, and there's no doubt Harbaugh has spent a lot of time with second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick to prepare him for his first postseason start. While the decision to bench Alex Smith in favor of Kaepernick was questionable, Kaepernick has acquitted himself well in recent weeks, and has the kind of athleticism that makes offensive coordinators salivate and defensive coordinators have nightmares. San Francisco will need to continue to run the ball effectively to keep pressure off of Kaepernick. The defense hasn't been as stingy in recent weeks, and while defensive end Justin Smith will play through his partial triceps tear, he's clearly not as effective.
Ultimately, in spite of the Packers' inability to consistently protect Rodgers, he just doesn't make a lot of big mistakes, and having a complete receiving corps at his disposal will cause a lot of matchup problems for the Niners.
Prediction: Packers 28, 49ers 23.

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
The 'Hawks overcame an early 14-0 deficit and shut down the Redskins running game in their 24-14 victory. Russell Wilson would probably be a shoe-in for Rookie of the Year if it weren't for Robert Griffin III, but Wilson stole the show for much of the game. Wilson's ability to make plays with his arm and his legs aren't uncommon, but to take such good care of the football is. Seattle will continue to use a heavy dose of the running game, with Pro Bowler Marshawn Lynch doing the heavy lifting. The team will miss defensive end Chris Clemons, who tore his ACL in the Wild Card game, but a full-strength secondary will help cover up some. The biggest question mark will be the play of rookie Bruce Irvin, who will be replacing Clemons, and whether or not he can hold up consistently against the run.
The Falcons have yet to win a playoff game under coach Mike Smith, but the NFC's #1 seed has a lot of talent. The receiving duo of Roddy White and Julio Jones pose matchup problems for a lot of teams, and give Matt Ryan two big-time playmakers (let's also not forget about Tony Gonzalez). The Falcons secondary has played surprisingly well despite some key injuries, and Asante Samuel has been a different player than his 2011 campaign with the Eagles. The biggest question marks for Atlanta are their ability to run the ball and consistently stop the run.
The Falcons probably have superior talent on offense, but the cornerback duo of Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner match up as well as any corner tandem in the league with White and Jones, and the Seahawks won't beat themselves.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Falcons 26.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
The Texans were able to overcome some early shakiness and notch a home win over the Bengals last weekend. Houston's key to success this season will be the running game, as the Texans are 8-0 when Arian Foster goes over 100 yards rushing. Matt Schaub had another solid season for the team, but the team is at it's best when they can work the deep pass to Andre Johnson off of play action. The defense was shaky towards the end of the season, but had a great game against the Bengals, allowing just 198 total yards last week. The task will be much taller against the Patriots, whom the Texans allowed to run up and 419 yards in their week fourteen matchup.
New England should have tight end Rob Gronkowski at 100%, something he wasn't the last time these two teams met. The offense has been more balanced than in recent years, as second-year running back Stevan Ridley had a strong season. The key to this team will almost always be Tom Brady, who had another typical Brady season in 2012. Defensively, the secondary play has been much better, as mid-season acquisition Aqib Talib has made an impact, along with rookies Alfonzo Dennard and Tavon Wilson.
Houston will show much better than their previous meeting, but the Patriots have too many weapons on offense for a Texans defense that's missing some key contributors.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Texans 24.

Last Week: 3-1 (.750)

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