Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
The surprising 9-4 Colts still have a shot at the AFC South Division crown as they head into this Sunday's game against the 11-2 Texans. Andrew Luck led another comeback victory last week against the Titans, but the rookie quarterback still needs to make better decisions with the football, as his 18 interceptions is tied for the league-worst.
Injuries have hurt the Texans defense, which has bordered on pedestrian for the past month. Despite a disappointing loss to the Patriots this past week, Houston controls its own destiny for the top seed in the AFC, and will likely have no problem getting themselves motivated for a matchup with a likely playoff team.
Despite the strong running game, it will likely be Matt Schaub who will be the difference-maker against a Colts secondary that has surrendered 22 passing touchdowns against just 8 interceptions.
Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 17.
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
On an eight game winning streak, the Broncos (along with the Patriots) are the hottest team in the NFL. Even with starting running back Willis McGahee out due to injury, the team has still been able to run the ball effectively, as former starter and first-round pick Knowshon Moreno has run for a combined 273 yards the past three weeks.
Baltimore fired offensive coordinator Cam Cameron this week, as the team struggled to develop an identity on offense. I've been critical of Cameron's play-calling for the past two years, as he began to utilize Ray Rice and the running game less over that span. Expect Baltimore to use less shotgun formation and make better use of Vonta Leach, who is one of the elite blocking backs in the NFL.
Peyton Manning has been playing MVP-caliber football this season, and with the defense also playing well, Denver takes this one.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Ravens 20.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins
The Jaguars have been playing better football over the past month, and should also see leading receiver Cecil Shorts back in the lineup this week against the Dolphins. Chad Henne has played well enough to warrant at least an open competition for the starting job against incumbent Blaine Gabbert. The team is down to Montell Owens at running back, as injuries to Maurice Jones-Drew, Rashad Jennings and Jalen Parmele have moved the special teams ace to the starting lineup.
The Dolphins played tough against the 49ers last week in San Francisco, but just came up against a stronger overall football team. With All-Pro offensive tackle Jake Long on injured reserve, they'll need second round pick Jonathan Martin to step up, as he has struggled with the physicality of the NFL game. The matchup I'll be watching will be Martin against Jaguars defensive end Jason Babin, who had 18 sacks for the Eagles last season.
The Dolphins defense and running game will be the difference in this one, as pass rusher Cameron Wake could also have a big game.
Prediction: Dolphins 20, Jaguars 13.
Washington Redskins @ Cleveland Browns
It looks like Robert Griffin III will be out for the team's game against the Browns after injuring his knee late against the Ravens. Fellow rookie quarterback Kirk Cousins will make his first career start, but had to have built some confidence last week, as he threw a late touchdown pass and ran in the following two-point conversion to force overtime against Baltimore, and also led the game-winning field goal drive in overtime.
The Browns put it on the hapless Chiefs last week, and have been one of the more surprising teams in the NFL, even if their 5-8 record doesn't show it. The team has solid wins against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, and have also played well in defeats to the Colts, Ravens, Giants and Cowboys. While the team is now under new ownership, head coach Pat Shurmur could be able to keep his job if Cleveland continues it's competitive play with a largely young team.
The Redskins will be a different team without Griffin this week, but should still have enough to take a tight road game.
Prediction: Redskins 23, Browns 20.
Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams
Vikings running back Adrian Peterson continues his strong play, and needs to average 133.4 yards per game over the final three regular season games to join the exclusive 2,000 yard club. Peterson's 6.0 yard per carry average is a career-high, and is the second-best mark in the league. While there was talk that Houston's Arian Foster was the NFL's best back at the end of last season, Peterson is doing the majority of his work without great quarterback play.
Sam Bradford led the Rams on a late-game touchdown drive to knock off the Bills in Buffalo last week. With three straight wins under their belt, the Rams have an outside chance to reach the postseason, but would definitely need a lot of help to do so. The defense has been much better than last season, and the play of rookie cornerback Janoris Jenkins has been great, as he looks like his fluidity and athleticism will be a nice pairing with the physical veteran Cortland Finnegan.
The Rams run defense is still only so-so, but the team plays fast at home. Still, the Vikings (even without Percy Harvin) are the better team, and have the best player on either side.
Prediction: Vikings 21, Rams 19.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
With both teams on the outskirts of the playoff race, a win is crucial for both teams to stay alive. Both teams have been surprises this season, with the Saints early-season struggles and the Buccaneers surprising success with a first-year head coach in Greg Schiano. Both teams have lost three straight, putting them behind the proverbial 8-ball, as both would likely need to win out and get help to reach the postseason.
In their first matchup, New Orleans won an exciting back-and-forth battle between the teams, but rookie running back Doug Martin only received 18 carries against a bad Saints run defense. Expect both more touches for Martin, and a different outcome than the first game.
Prediction: Buccaneers 30, Saints 28.
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons
The Giants have again waited to December to find their rhythm, but the offense has been clicking on all cylinders over the past few weeks. Rookie David Wilson had a big game against the Saints, and will be the primary ball-carrier this week due to injuries to Andre Brown and Ahmad Bradshaw. Wilson's early-season fumble issues put him in Tom Coughlin's doghouse, but his play in the return game and his 13-carry, 100 yard performance bodes well for future touches.
The Falcons looked terrible against the Panthers last Monday, but still control their own destiny for the NFC's top seed. Michael Turner has been less and less effective due to his high usage rate for the Falcons, and is not a weapon in the passing game, so expect to see Jacquizz Rodgers' role continue to increase over time.
The Falcons' lack of a running game, as well as a ferocious Giants pass-rush spell a road win for New York.
Prediction: Giants 28, Falcons 25.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
These two teams are heading in opposite directions, as the Packers have won seven of their past eight games, while the Bears have lost four of their past five. Injuries have had a lot to do with the Bears' struggles, as Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings are two of the top playmakers for an opportunistic defense. Even without a strong running game, the Packers utilize the screen and short passing game well, as slot receiver Randall Cobb's agility and quickness provide opportunities for significant yards after the catch.
Green Bay could be getting Clay Matthews back on the field this week, and the Packers pass rush will force Jay Cutler to make some poor decisions with the football.
Prediction: Packers 28, Bears 24.
Seattle Seahawks @ Buffalo Bills
The Seahawks absolutely dominated the Cardinals last week, rolling to a 58-0 win, as the team was able to do whatever they wanted. The win keeps the Seahawks very much alive for the postseason, and at 8-5, still have a shot at the NFC West crown. Secondary depth is a concern, as the team is without Brandon Browner (suspension), Walter Thurmond III and Marcus Trufant this week.
Buffalo can't seem to get out of their own way, with another late-game touchdown drive leading to another late defeat. The team hasn't utilized C.J. Spiller well, but the season-ending injury to Fred Jackson opens the way for more Spiller usage.
The 'Hawks have been the more consistent team, and will win this game, which is being played in Toronto.
Prediction: Seahawks 17, Bills 16.
Carolina Panthers @ San Diego Chargers
I was of the thought that Carolina could potentially take the next step from exciting young team in 2011 to potential playoff team this season. While the team has shown flashes and been competitive in almost every game this season, Newton's decision-making and injuries in the backfield have caused the team to take a step back.
The Chargers are perennially among the most disappointing teams in the league, but looked great against the Steelers, winning in Pittsburgh for the first time in franchise history. Mid-season signing Danario Alexander has filled the gaping hole left by Vincent Jackson's departure this past offseason, and has 555 yards and five touchdowns in just seven games this year.
The Chargers are likely cleaning house this coming offseason, but the Chargers defense is more talented the Carolina's and San Diego could carry some of the momentum built with their win against the Steelers into this one.
Prediction: Chargers 27, Panthers 23.
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Both teams share a 4-9 record, which is shocking for both clubs, but for different reasons. Detroit was a playoff team last season, and with a young team remaining largely intact from 2011, the team was expected to take another step forward. Detroit just can't win close games this season, as their 3-8 record in one score games underscores. On the bright side, Calvin Johnson continues to chase Jerry Rice's single-season receiving yardage record, and is constantly targeted by Matthew Stafford. My money says he gets it.
The Cardinals opened the season with four straight wins, but the Diamondbacks (October 2nd) have won more recently. Kevin Kolb should never be mistaken for an elite quarterback, but the play of Ryan Lindley and John Skelton has been downright awful. Linebacker Daryl Washington's play and statistics would likely have him in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion, but his teams precipitous fall will likely keep him from getting it.
The Lions finally play well on the road, and the defense should be able to make some plays, as Arizona quarterbacks will likely gift at least one turnover.
Prediction: Lions 20, Cardinals 9.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Two of the most disappointing teams play each other this week, as the 2-11 Chiefs take on the 3-10 Raiders. While Kansas City has the worst turnover differential in the league, but running back Jamaal Charles should have a big game against a vulnerable Raiders defense. The game does have some implications, as whoever loses will be in the driver's seat for the #1 overall pick in the draft.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Raiders 21.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Dallas Cowboys
The Steelers laid a massive egg in Ben Roethlisberger's return to the lineup, as San Diego's offense moved the ball well in their home loss. Pittsburgh still controls its own destiny for the playoffs, but need to run the ball more to keep Roethlisberger upright and healthy.
Dallas' poor start to the year put them in a major hole, but four wins in their past five games have put them back in the NFC postseason discussion. Injuries have been a big factor for this team, as Dez Bryant joins a bevy of other Cowboys skill-position players who has battled injuries, as Bryant tries to play through a broken bone on his hand.
It'll be a battle for turnovers, as Pittsburgh struggles to force them, while Dallas struggles to take care of the ball. While the Steelers won't give up a ton of yardage, I think the Cowboys will get enough explosive plays to take this one.
Prediction: Cowboys 21, Steelers 16.
San Francisco 49ers @ New England Patriots
The 49ers played in another tight game against a tough Dolphins team, but were able to take home a 14-point victory. While his athleticism and strong arm provide tremendous intrigue and upside, second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick will still be going through growing pains. Jim Harbaugh has a locker room firmly behind him as of right now, but replacing a starter who helped lead the team to the NFC Championship game last season and was doing well prior to his injury is always risky.
The Patriots have won seven straight games, and their 42-14 home win over the presumptive #1 seed Houston Texans opened a lot of people's eyes. The frightening thing from that game is the offense's performance without tight end Rob Gronkowski. New England still utilizes a running back-by-committee approach, but Stevan Ridley's work on run downs and short-yardage situations have provided the Patriots something they've lacked since Corey Dillon was in Foxborough.
The 49ers are a legitimate team, but the Patriots take great care of the ball, and Bill Belichick has yet to lose in Foxborough to a rookie quarterback.
Prediction: Patriots 27, 49ers 13.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
Tim Tebow will be available this week, and head coach Rex Ryan has stated that Tebow could be used in the Wildcat formation as well as personal protector on the punt team. Mark Sanchez should have another opportunity for a decent outing, as the Titans defense doesn't really have a great pass rush or secondary play.
Jake Locker's play has been very hit-and-miss, not just weekly, but play-by-play. His propensity to force throws has led to unnecessary turnovers, but can also result in some explosive plays. Locker's chemistry with Kenny Britt stretches the field, which can open up holes for Chris Johnson. While the Jets defense hasn't been terrible, Johnson's vision and speed make him a home run threat every time he touches the ball.
The Jets have an opportunity to sneak into the postseason with some help, but I think the Titans get a good game out of Locker.
Prediction: Titans 20, Jets 14.
Last Week: 9-6 (.600)
Season: 121-70 (.633)
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