2012 NFL Predictions: Week Nine

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
Although Peyton Manning (predictably) thrashed the Saints defense, it was the defense's performance that really stood out in their 34-14 win. While they only recorded one sack, Drew Brees was under constant pressure, and barely completed 50% of his passes, while New Orleans was held to just 252 total yards. Outside of a poor three interception first quarter against the Falcons early in the season, Manning has thrown a total of 17 touchdowns with just one interception.
The Bengals are coming off their bye week, and should be motivated to get the bad taste of a 24-17 home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The entire Cincinnati offense struggled (185 total yards), and All-Pro candidate A.J. Green was limited to just one catch for eight yards (though it was for a touchdown). The defense has not been as sturdy as last season's (26.7 points/game), especially against the pass, where they've recorded just three interceptions against nine touchdowns. The Bengals do have a great pass rush, as Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson are part of a strong front four.
The matchup to watch will be how the Broncos offensive line protects Manning against the strong Bengals pass rush.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Bengals 20.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
The Ravens had their bye to regroup after a 43-13 shellacking at the hands of the Texans, as they were outgained 420-176. Even before losing Ray Lewis (and Lardarius Webb) to injury, the team hadn't been as stout defensively in 2012, as they've recorded just 12 sacks while allowing 142.9 rushing yards per game. Ray Rice has recorded just one game with more than 18 carries this season as the offense has leaned heavily on the sometimes-inconsistent arm of quarterback Joe Flacco (9 TD, 6 INT).
Despite sitting at just 2-6, the team has been surprisingly competitive, dropping just two games by 10 or more points. Furthermore, their play has gotten stronger with the return of cornerback Joe Haden, as the team has won two of their past three games. Rookies Trent Richardson, Brandon Weeden and Josh Gordon have formed a nice offensive nucleus, and the team figures to continue to improve as second-year wide receiver Greg Little continues to develop.
Whoever does a better job of stopping the run will take this one, as both run defenses are suspect.
Prediction: Ravens 20, Browns 17.

Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers
The Cardinals hot start to the season seems like a distant memory, as a disappointing home loss to the 49ers has them mired in a four-game losing streak. Arizona quarterback have taken a beating this season (league-worst 39 sacks allowed), as both Kevin Kolb and John Skelton have missed time due to injury. The running game isn't any better, as the team is averaging just 79 yards per game (second to last) and 3.5 yards per carry (last in NFL). The defense continues to play solid football, as they surrender just 17.8 points and 312.8 yards per game while recording 26 sacks.
The Packers came out flat against the Jaguars, and it made that game much more competitive than it should have been. Green Bay will likely get Jordy Nelson back this week, as he sat out the Jacksonville game due to a balky hamstring. A strong pass rush by Clay Matthews and the front seven allow their secondary to make plays, and rookie Casey Hayward (4 INT) has made a big impact.
The Cardinals have to do a better job of getting Larry Fitzgerald the football, but can't do that if their quarterbacks are constantly under pressure.
Prediction: Packers 26, Cardinals 17.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
The Bills defense is in utter disarray after their offseason spending spree, but the bye week should help defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt get some issues sorted out. Offensively, Buffalo still has playmakers, as the running back duo of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller power the #3 running game in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick's decision-making has always been questionable, but he's largely played well over the last few weeks.
The Texans are also coming off a bye after dismantling the Ravens. Houston is in the driver's seat for homefield advantage in the playoffs, and their well-rounded offense has a lot to do with it. Tight end Owen Daniels is having a Pro Bowl season, while Arian Foster and the running game have accounted for 11 rushing touchdowns. Defensively, the team hasn't lost a step from last year, and J.J. Watt has emerged as the best five-technique defensive end in the league.
Pass protection will be key in this game, as Buffalo will need a great performance from Fitzpatrick to win.
Prediction: Texans 31, Bills 20.

Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts
The Dolphins took their show on the road and put it on the Jets, 30-9. Matt Moore entered for an injured Ryan Tannehill and was solid in the win. If Tannehill can't go, Moore is a solid backup who will make good decisions with the football. The defense continues to play strong football, racking up four sacks and forcing two Mark Sanchez turnovers.
The Colts were able to leave Tennessee with an overtime win thanks to an amazing leap to the end zone by running back Vick Ballard in overtime. The running game took a step forward, as the combination of Ballard and Donald Brown racked up a combined for 135 yards on 26 carries. The run defense is still a concern, as they are allowing 4.8 yards per carry along with 8 rush touchdowns.
The Dolphins should find success on the ground against Indianapolis, but could have trouble covering the revitalized Colts wideout Reggie Wayne.
Prediction: Dolphins 21, Colts 16.

Detroit Lions @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Lions were able to pull out a tough home game against Seattle largely due to a big game from quarterback Matthew Stafford. Calvin Johnson still has just one touchdown catch on the season, but Stafford did a great job of not forcing things, and took what the defense gave him. Outside of allowing a 77-yard touchdown run, the Lions did a great job of bottling up the run, surrendering a combined 56 yards on 18 carries, and have significantly improved in the category from a season ago.
Jacksonville gave Green Bay a tough game, but the talent disparity between the teams was apparent as as they fell 24-15. Cecil Shorts (and not 1st round pick Justin Blackmon) has emerged as Blaine Gabbert's favorite target, and could form a nice duo with Blackmon down the road. Defensively, the Jaguars was strong against the run, but haven't shown any consistency this season.
With Maurice Jones-Drew still out this week, there's not much to like for the Jaguars, even after a gritty performance last week.
Prediction: Lions 28, Jaguars 14.

Chicago Bears @ Tennessee Titans
Jay Cutler and the relentless Bears defense overcame a sloppy first three quarters, rallying back from a 19-7 fourth quarter deficit to win. The pass protection for Cutler was largely terrible, and along with their quarterback's spotty decision-making, are the only real weaknesses on this team.
Tennessee's Chris Johnson is back on track, but a shoddy defense that can't stop the run (139.3 per game) or rush the quarterback (11 sacks) require them to win a lot of shootouts.
The Bears should be able to avoid another early-game letdown after their scare against Carolina, and the Chicago pass rush will give Titans quarterback Matt Hasselbeck headaches.
Prediction: Bears 24, Titans 10.

Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins
Mistakes cost the Panthers in their road loss to the Bears, none moreso than Cam Newton's errant throw which was returned for a touchdown to close the deficit to just five points in the fourth quarter. Newton has endured a sophomore slump, but he isn't entirely to blame. The running game has yet to duplicate the success of last season, and Steve Smith has yet to find the end zone through seven games. The defense has played respectably this season as far as yards per game go, but is allowing a whopping 68.4 completion percentage.
The Redskins were brought back to Earth as the Steelers defense kept Robert Griffin III and the entire Washington offense at bay. Also of concern is the amount of drops from the receiving corps, who no doubt miss the presence of Pierre Garcon and Fred Davis. The pass defense has also been abysmal, allowing league-highs in both passing touchdowns (19) and yards per game (314.3).
I'm taking the Redskins in a higher-scoring affair, as RGIII is taking better care of the football than Cam is right now.
Prediction: Redskins 30, Panthers 28.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Oakland Raiders
Josh Freeman has played better in recent weeks, and Doug Martin has given the team a strong running game. The loss of All-Pro guard Carl Nicks will hurt some, but Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson now appear to be in-sync with their quarterback. Defensively, the team's pass rush has to improve (11 sacks), and will miss cornerbacks Aqib Talib (traded to Patriots) and Eric Wright (suspension).
The Raiders passing game has come alive as Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore have returned from injury. Tight end Brandon Myers has been a welcome surprise, and has given quarterback Carson Palmer a nice check-down option. The pass rush is still a concern (10 sacks), and they have surrendered 12 touchdown passes.
Prediction: Buccaneers 26, Raiders 23.

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Both the Vikings and Seahawks are run-first teams, as Adrian Peterson (775 yards) and Marshawn Lynch (757) are the top two rushers in the league to this point of the season. For Minnesota, the difference-maker may well be wide receiver Percy Harvin, whose short-area quickness could cause problems for Seahawks cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. For the 'Hawks, the pass rush will need to come up big, as the Vikings don't do a particularly great job of protecting Christian Ponder.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Vikings 13.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Giants
Despite having two Super Bowl wins, Ben Roethlisberger () is having a career year. The emergence of Jonathan Dwyer has given Pittsburgh the running game it's sorely lacked in recent seasons. On defense, the Steelers don't allow many yards (274.1/game, 2nd in NFL), but are still struggling to force turnovers or generate much of a pass-rush.
Eli Manning has the Giants on the right track, but the team looked less-than-dominant in their win against the Cowboys. Dallas was able to shut down the Giants offensively, and New York won largely on the strength of some silly turnovers by the Cowboys. The pass rush has been solid (21 sacks), and the team has a league-high 16 interceptions, but the team will allow some big plays through the air as well (273.5 passing yards/game).
The Steelers ability to protect Ben Roethlisberger will be key, and a revamped running game with Jonathan Dwyer will put Pittsburgh over the top.
UPSET OF THE WEEK!!!!!!! Steelers 24, Giants 23.

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons
What's happened to Tony Romo this season? Perenially among the top quarterbacks in terms of rating, Romo's performance has been anything but good. The defense hasn't given up much in the way of yardage, but the revamped secondary has recorded just three interceptions. Outside of DeMarcus Ware, the pass rush has also struggled to get on track.
Atlanta looked great in the road win against the Eagles, and Matt Ryan is my early front-runner for MVP, as he's accounted for 18 total touchdowns against just seven turnovers. The running game has been inconsistent, but the combination of Jacquizz Rodgers and Michael Turner are still a respectable duo.
Ultimately, Atlanta has been the more consistent team, and Ryan is nearly unbeatable at home.
Prediction: Falcons 28, Cowboys 21.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
Man, oh man, who would have thought that the Eagles would follow up a poor 2011 with a potentially worse 2012. Reid has already fired defensive coordinator Juan Castillo, and Michael Vick's turnover woes have hurt the team. One of the most feared edge-rushers last year, Jason Babin has yet to get on track, and saw reduced playing time against the Falcons. The secondary has also played poorly, as Nnamdi Asomugha hasn't looked like the Pro Bowl player he was for Oakland a couple years ago.
The Saints really missed tight end Jimmy Graham last week, as they got dismantled by Peyton Manning and the Broncos. The lack of a running game is an absolute concern, and the team will also be without multi-threat running back Darren Sproles this week. The Saints defense is hard to watch, as they're surrendering a league-worst 474.7 yards per game, and are also terrible against the run (170.1 yards/game) and forcing turnovers (just 3 interceptions).
The loser of this game is effectively out of the postseason. While I've been burned several times, I'm going with the Eagles, as LeSean McCoy should have a field day running.
UPSET OF THE WEEK: PART TWO!!!!! Eagles 35, Saints 31.

Last Week: 8-5 (.615)
Season: 67-42 (.615)