Washington Redskins @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Robert Griffin III continues to lead the high-octane Washington offense, as the team ranks among the top five in scoring offense, total offense and rushing yards. The sledding doesn't get any easier for offense though, as tight end Fred Davis is out for the season after tearing his ACL in their loss to the Giants. The offense will need to improve on third down (30.6%), and will also need to cut down on penalties (55 for 497 yards). The defense has recorded 10 interceptions this season (t-3rd), but have also surrendered league-highs in passing yards (328.4) and passing touchdowns (16).
The Steelers were able to overcome a scrappy Bengals team thanks to the emergence of running back Jonathan Dwyer, who ran for 122 yards on 17 carries. With Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman nursing injuries, the emergence of Dwyer is key to the effectiveness of their play-action passes, which open up the deep ball for Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, and also keep opposing defenses from pinning their ears back on the pass rush. The defense hasn't made a lot of plays this season, but they also play with solid gap discipline, and rank near the top of the league in total defense and passing defense.
The Redskins have yet to play a defense as strong as in all phases as Pittsburgh, and a porous secondary will be their undoing in this one.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Redskins 20.
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
Cam Newton and the rest of the Panthers offense has yet to duplicate the success it had in 2011, as the team is only averaging 335.5 yards and 17.7 points on the season. Head coach Ron Rivera has stated that the team needs to find "one guy" at running back, and indications are that they will go with Jonathan Stewart as the feature back in hopes of finding rhythm. The defense ranks in the middle of the pack in the league in most categories, but will need to force more turnovers in order to offset the offensive struggles.
The Bears offense is still a work in progress, but the passing game is gaining steam as Brandon Marshall is once again among the league's receiving leaders with 577 yards and 4 touchdowns. The running game has also been strong, as Matt Forte and Michael Bush have combined for 608 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns on the ground. Defensively, Chicago has the league's best run defense, scoring defense and have also recorded a league-high 15 interceptions. The team has also recorded five defensive touchdowns, and are one of the few teams that play disciplined enough to properly execute their "Tampa 2" defense.
Barring a Jay Cutler turnover-fest (which is always a possibility with his sometimes questionable decision-making), the Bears should be able to keep the Carolina offense in check, along with solid production on offense for a relatively easy win.
Prediction: Bears 24, Panthers 13.
San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
After throwing four second-half interceptions in their loss to the Broncos, Philip Rivers and the Chargers have had time to lick their wounds and re-focus coming off their bye week. One of the better quarterbacks in the league, Rivers needs to take better care of the football, as he's turned the ball over 37 times since the start of the 2011 season. The team's running game could also continue to gain traction, as Ryan Mathews is averaging 104.7 yards from scrimmage in the past three games. On defense, the Chargers are stout against the run, but have only registered 10 sacks and allowed 14 touchdowns against only seven interceptions.
The Browns haven't been an a consistent unit on offense, and will need to get more consistent production out of the running game (79.1 yards/game) and convert more on third downs (32.3%). Brandon Weeden looked good in the team's loss to the Colts, and could have had a better game were it not for an unfortunate ray of sun that got in the eyes of his receiver. Cleveland's defense has given up big chunks of yards, but are much stronger against the pass with Joe Haden back from his early-season suspension. Dick Jauron's unit relies heavily on creating turnovers (10 interceptions), and also generates a solid pass rush (18 sacks).
While the Chargers have been less than stellar on the road in recent seasons, they should have enough to get a win in this one.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Browns 16.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
The success or failure of this team lies largely on the shoulders of rookie quarterback Russell Wilson, as in their three losses, Wilson has thrown 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions, while in four wins, Wilson has seven touchdowns and two interceptions. The strengths of this team are its solid running game with Marshawn Lynch (652 yards), and a defense among the top eight in scoring (15.1 points), yards allowed (297.3), rushing yards (85.0) and passing yards (212.3).
Detroit out-gained the Bears in their Monday night matchup, but red zone turnovers doomed them in the loss. The team will need to figure out a way to get Calvin Johnson in the end zone, as the All-Pro wideout has just one receiving touchdown this season. Defensively, the Lions are much improved, as they've allowed just 319.3 yards per game, but will need to force more turnovers, as they have a league-low four forced to this point of the season.
The 'Hawks will use a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch, and Russell Wilson should be productive against a suspect Lions secondary.
Prediction: Seahawks 20, Lions 19.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers
The loss of running back Maurice Jones-Drew is the biggest news of the week, as his injured foot will likely keep him out a couple of weeks. Rashad Jennings will be tasked with picking up the slack, as the offense has been abysmal again this season. The defense hasn't done much either, as an anemic pass rush has yielded only five sacks and is especially vulnerable on the ground, surrendering 147.3 yards per game rushing.
After failing to hold an 18-point second half lead against the Colts, it seemed as though the Packers were in danger of missing the playoffs. Fast forward two weeks, and Green Bay appears to have righted the ship. Aaron Rodgers is again putting up ridiculous numbers, and Randall Cobb has emerged as a solid #2 receiver opposite Jordy Nelson as he's been filling in for the injured Greg Jennings. Defensively, Clay Matthews heads a pass rush that has racked up 24 sacks (1st in the league) as the defense has played much better than last season.
Not much to like for the Jaguars in this one, as even if Jordy Nelson doesn't play, the Packers have too much for a struggling Jacksonville squad.
Prediction: Packers 34, Jaguars 10.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Andrew Luck's two rushing touchdowns helped the Colts take down a scrappy Browns team last week. Reggie Wayne's resurgence continues, as the receiver is averaging 111 yards per game receiving, and the run game could improve with the potential return of Donald Brown, who has missed the past two weeks. Defensively, the team needs to make more plays, as they have just two interceptions allowed. The run defense is also still an issue, as they surrendering 141.7 yards per game on the ground.
Chris Johnson appears to have regained his "CJ2K" form, racking up 195 yards on the ground last week in their last-minute road win over the Bills. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has filled in well for the injured Jake Locker, and the team is very much alive for a Wild Card berth. The defense still gives up a lot of yards (416.1) and points (34.0), and needs to get more pressure on the quarterback (9 sacks).
The Colts will find some success through the air, but a revitalized Chris Johnson and playing at home gives Tennessee the edge.
Prediction: Titans 31, Colts 27.
New England Patriots @ St. Louis Rams
The Patriots offense struggled some against the Jets, and were able to overcome a lackluster defensive performance to win in overtime. Tight end Aaron Hernandez won't play this weekend, so expect more targets for Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and Rob Gronkowski. The defense has also played well this season, but looked vulnerable at times against a poor passing offense. New England does a great job of forcing fumbles (13 thus far), and is strong against the run (86.0/game).
The Rams could potentially see the return of Danny Amendola this Sunday, providing Sam Bradford another weapon in the passing game. Running back Daryl Richardson has slowly been eating into Steven Jackson's touches, and continues to be productive when entering the game. The Rams will rely on a strong pass rush, and Cortland Finnegan will need to shut down Welker for the team to have a chance.
St. Louis will play scrappy football, but New England is just too talented to be denied.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Rams 20.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
The Dolphins are well rested coming off their bye, and carried momentum with them into it with a three point win over the Rams. Ryan Tannehill has been solid the past two games for Miami, completing 69.1 percent of his passes while throwing two touchdowns without a single turnover. The running game with Reggie Bush and company is vital to the team's success, and Bush will have extra motivation playing against a Jets team that has trash-talked him this season. On defense, the Dolphins are strong against the run, allowing just 78.2 yards per game rushing, while Cameron Wake (6.5 sacks) heads a respectable pass rush.
New York outplayed New England in Foxborough for much of the game, but still wound up on the losing end of a 26-23 final score. Mark Sanchez threw for over 300 yards and was aided by the return of tight end Dustin Keller (7-93-1), but Sanchez's fumble in overtime sealed the win for the Patriots. Shonn Greene wasn't spectacular against the Pats (16-53), but did his fourth rushing touchdown the past two weeks. On defense, the Jets have struggled to stop the run, allowing 147.7 yards per game (30th in NFL), and the pass rush has been pedestrian this season (10 sacks).
While the Jets have played better the past two weeks, the Dolphins running game and pass rush will make life difficult on Mark Sanchez.
Prediction: Dolphins 20, Jets 16.
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Falcons will look to remain as the league's lone unbeaten team coming off their bye. Despite being undefeated, the running game has yet to gain traction this season, as Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers have combined for just 434 yards and 3 touchdowns this season. On defense, John Abraham (6 sacks) and the defense have done a great job of generating pressure on the quarterback, while the secondary has recorded 10 interceptions. The run defense is problematic, as the team is surrendering 5.2 yards per rush (31st in NFL).
During the bye week, the Eagles fired defensive coordinator Juan Castillo after just one and a half seasons in that position. Castillo struggled to make in-game adjustments, and the pass rush which was so ferocious last season has just 7 sacks this season. Michael Vick will also need to show improved decision-making, as both he and head coach Andy Reid are on the hot seat after another slow start to the season.
The Falcons have done a better job of taking care of the football, but Andy Reid is 13-0 coming off a bye, and the Eagles will likely use LeSean McCoy heavily.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Falcons 23.
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders were able to overcome a poor start to knock off a competitive Jags team, as Carson Palmer engineered two fourth-quarter scoring drives to force it into overtime, where Sebastian Janikowski won it. Despite playing against a soft run defense, Darren McFadden was unable to do much (19-53). The pass rush was able to record three sacks against the Jags, which nearly doubled their season sack total. Despite the struggles in the pass rush, the run defense has been good, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry.
The Chiefs have made the switch to Brady Quinn at quarterback, as Matt Cassel's turnovers cost him the starting job. It's not as though Quinn is a significant upgrade at the position, as Quinn himself threw two interceptions in their loss to Tampa Bay. The defense doesn't surrender huge chunks of yards, but a -10 turnover margin has put them in bad spots. Kansas City really misses cornerback Brandon Carr, as the team has allowed 13 pass touchdowns against just 4 interceptions.
The Raiders are probably the better team, but the Chiefs are traditionally a good team at home, and I have a gut feeling that Quinn will perform respectably.
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Raiders 17.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
The Giants will look for revenge this week against Dallas, and the G-Men are 3-0 since the new Cowboys Stadium opened its doors. The team could be without Ahmad Bradshaw in the game, but there isn't much of a drop-off between him, Andre Brown and David Wilson as far as talent. The passing game looked great against the Redskins, and the Giants are allowing less than 10 points per game on the road this year.
Tony Romo's team got the win last week, but the once-stellar offense of Dallas has been pedestrian this year (18.8 points/game). The Cowboys will be without running back DeMarco Murray, and backup Felix Jones' status is up in the air, so the team will likely have to go with Philip Tanner if Jones can't play. The fourth-ranked defense has done a great job of limiting yards, but the revamped secondary has recorded just two interceptions this year. Outside of DeMarcus Ware (6.5 sacks), the rest of the team has recorded just 5.5 sacks on the season.
This is a do-or-die type game for the Cowboys, as a loss would put a playoff berth in doubt. The Giants are healthy and playing better football.
Prediction: Giants 21, Cowboys 14.
New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos
Drew Brees and the Saints overcame a slow start to beat the Buccaneers last week, as Drew Brees is on pace to again crack 5,000 yards passing. The running game hasn't got going this year, but Brees utilizes Darren Sproles on a lot of short/underneath routes to act as a pseudo-running game. The defense has been downright terrible this season, surrendering a league-high 465.5 yards per game, along with 30.3 points per contest. The defense relies heavily on making plays, but has recorded just three interceptions and forced just three fumbles through six games.
The Broncos are rolling, and Peyton Manning is doing ridiculously well after missing all of last year. Firmly in the MVP discussion, and is on pace for one of the best seasons of his career, averaging over 300 yards per game through the air, with 14 passing touchdowns against just 4 interceptions. The defense has been steady this season, ranking in the top half of the league in sacks (18), total yards (330.5) and defensive touchdowns (3).
This should be an exciting game, but the Broncos solid defense will be the differentiating factor in a matchup of two of the best quarterbacks in the game.
Prediction: Broncos 34, Saints 28.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
The running game looked strong against a stout Seattle defense, and Alex Smith made enough plays to win last Thursday. At times it appears that the 49ers try too hard to get Alex Smith in a groove and abandon the running game, when running the football is this team's offensive identity. Despite a dropoff in the pass rush's production (11 sacks through seven games), the defense is still one of the best units in all of football, ranking #1 in total defense (272.3) and passing yards allowed (173.4), as well as #2 in points allowed (14.3).
John Skelton has replaced the injured Kevin Kolb as the starting quarterback, taking back the place he earned in the preseason. Regardless of who the quarterback is, their offensive line has to learn how to pass block, as they've surrendered a whopping 35 sacks. The running game would also help take pressure off the line, but they've done a poor job of blocking there, too, and the team is down to their third string running back with injuries to Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams. The defense is the strength of this team, as they don't allow much in the way of yards (312.1/game) or points (16.9/game). The team also does a great job of rushing the passer, racking up 22 sacks (t-4th in NFL), as six players have at least two sacks on the season, led by linebacker Daryl Washington's six.
Both teams have struggled to protect their quarterbacks, but a stronger 49ers running game and better overall offensive line play will make the difference in a low-scoring game.
Prediction: 49ers 19, Cardinals 16.
Last Week: 9-3 (.750)
Season: 59-37 (.614)
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