Friday, August 10, 2012

Forecasting the Trail Blazers playing style in 2012-2013

The Portland Trail Blazers have seen a lot of organizational turnover in the past six months. Larry Miller stepped down as Trail Blazers president to take a job with Nike. Neil Olshey was hired away from the Clippers to take over for Chad Buchanan as the new general manager. Nate McMillan was fired in March and replaced by assistant Kaleb Canales, who was a finalist for the head coaching job that ultimately went to Dallas Mavericks assistant Terry Stotts.
The roster has also seen a drastic change from the start of this past season. The team has only seven players that were with the team at the end of this past season, none of them being older than 27. Portland was able to retain Nicolas Batum after matching the Timberwolves four-year offer sheet, whom GM Neil Olshey had stated was Portland's top priority this offseason. The team also re-signed PF/C J.J. Hickson to a one year deal.
The team also brought over two former first round draft picks from overseas in PF/C Joel Freeland and F Victor Claver. In addition, the team added PG Damian Lillard, C Meyers Leonard and G/F Will Barton from the 2012 draft. Those five rookies will join fellow youngsters PG Nolan Smith, SG Elliot Williams and F Luke Babbitt.
Portland did add some veteran players to this roster as well, as they traded for F Jared Jeffries (Knicks) and G/F Sasha Pavlovic (Celtics), as well as signing PG Ronnie Price. Almost all of these signings are largely for depth, as I see Jared Jeffries as the only potential regular rotation player of these three.
Terry Stotts wasn't super-successful in his previous head coaching stints with the Atlanta Hawks (52-85) and Milwaukee Bucks (63-83), but has had success working under Rick Carlisle in Dallas the past four years. Stotts has received credit from Carlisle for running the Mavericks offense during their run to the 2011 NBA Title, and spoke at his introductory press conference about emphasizing a ball-sharing philosophy on offense, while holding players accountable on defense.
Portland will likely have one of the youngest rotations in the league, as Leonard (20), Lillard (22), Williams (23), Babbitt (23), Batum (23) and Smith (24) could all see regular minutes this season. Claver is likely a project, but could still see spot minutes behind Nicolas Batum at small forward depending on the matchup.
Another item of note for the Trail Blazers is their lack of depth at center. Meyers Leonard is really the only "true" center on the team, as Aldridge, Hickson and Freeland are power forwards capable of playing center. The good news is, all of those players mentioned are above solid athletes with good quickness and mobility. The bad news is that the teams' interior defense will likely suffer, as the only real shot-blocking threat is Leonard, and it usually takes big men a couple of seasons to adapt to the physicality and speed of the game.
Offensively, I see Stotts using a more up-tempo attack on offense, using every opportunity to fast break in transition, as all of the potential rotation players in the frontcourt can run the floor well. When in the halfcourt, the team will likely see large quantities of Damian Lillard running the pick-and-roll. Lamarcus Aldridge will likely have one of the higher usage rates in the league, and could see a Dirk Nowitzki-esque role in the offense, where he can play on the elbow, as well as down in the blocks.
Portland will also likely play Aldridge at center for stretches, putting three-point shooters around him to space the floor. Batum, Matthews and Babbitt are solid shooters, and Lillard projects solidly as well.
I don't believe the Trail Blazers project very well defensively this season, as the combination of a young roster and a relative lack of shot-blockers in the frontcourt will see it's fair share of growing pains. Matthews, Batum and Aldridge are all solid defensive players, but only Matthews consistently brings solid defensive effort every night. If the Trail Blazers are truly committed to playing an up-tempo style on offense, they could try and allow their perimeter players to gamble on playing the passing lanes. There are two reasons to dispute that notion: 1) The overall lack of shot-blockers to defend the rim to cover up some of those gambles, and; 2) Stotts' desire to hold players accountable on defense. Especially with a young team, you want to instill good fundamentals and habits, and playing the passing lanes can backfire just as often (if not more) as it pays off.

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