Friday, July 20, 2012

Grading the Portland Trail Blazers offseason

Following a disappointing 2011-2012 season that saw the teams' three-year postseason run come to an end, the Portland Trail Blazers made a change in the front office, hiring Neil Olshey as the team's new general manager. With the team only having five players under contract entering the off-season, just about everyone who follows the team knew that there would be significant roster changes as the team tries to re-build (or re-tool) around LaMarcus Aldridge. Here's a breakdown of what appears to be the 2012-2013 version of the Portland Trail Blazers.

Still In The Fold
PF LaMarcus Aldridge
SG Wesley Matthews
SG Elliot Williams
SF Luke Babbitt
PG Nolan Smith
Thoughts: Aldridge's 2011-2012 season ended early from injury, but he's still an All-Star caliber talent who has a devastating offensive repertoire, and is clearly the franchise cornerstone. Matthews is an above average defender and three-point shooter for the Blazers, and his spot as the starting two-guard should be safe for at least one more season. Elliot Williams has had two season-ending injuries in his two seasons, but flashed great offensive potential in limited playing time last year, but could face some competition for minutes behind Matthews. Babbitt showed he's an NBA-level shooter when given minutes last season, but will need to show a better game off the dribble and defense if he wants to have a chance to be a rotation player this season. Smith struggled as a rookie playing the point guard, but looked to have refined his jumper and game in the summer league before going down with a concussion. Smith will have a chance to earn the backup minutes at point guard.

Players Retained
SF Nicolas Batum
F/C J.J. Hickson
Thoughts: By far the biggest signing this offseason for the team was matching the Minnesota Timberwolves offer sheet for Batum. Still just 23 years old, Batum still has some untapped potential left, though he may have a hard time putting up the kind of numbers to warrant his reported four-year, $46.5 million deal. The team declined to use a qualifying offer on Hickson, but was able to re-sign him for relatively cheap (one-year, $4 million). While Hickson is far from a good defender, he provides the team with athleticism and rebounding in the frontcourt. Hickson also put up very good numbers for Portland after LaMarcus Aldridge's season ended early due to injury.

New Additions
PG Damian Lillard
C Meyers Leonard
SF Will Barton
PF Joel Freeland
SF Victor Claver
F Jared Jeffries
SG Sasha Pavlovic
PG Ronnie Price
Thoughts: In the 2012 Draft, general manager Neil Olshey grabbed three potential rotation players for the future. #6 overall pick Damian Lillard is looking like a stud thus far in the summer league, and should be the team's long-awaited point guard of the future. Lillard has great physical attributes, and will provide Portland with a solid pick-and-roll point guard who can also shoot the three. Lillard will be the team's starter from day one. #11 pick Meyers Leonard also has very good physical tools, but will probably still need to add more bulk and seasoning before he's ready to become the starting center for the Blazers. Will Barton (40th pick) is a good slasher and rebounder, but like Leonard, could stand to add some strength to handle the more physical wings in the league.
Portland also brought over two former draft picks from Europe this offseason, as Joel Freeland (#30 overall pick in 2006) and Victor Claver (#22 in 2009) join the frontcourt. Freeland has shown a decent mid-range game and instincts on the boards, though he probably won't be anything better than average defensively. Expect to see Freeland be the first big man off the bench, as the team signed him to a three-year, $9 million deal. Claver has a similar skill set to Batum (smooth athlete, decent outside shooter, plus-potential as a defender), but his injury history has put him somewhat behind in his development. With the players in front of him, it's highly unlikely Claver is a regular rotation player this season, and could use some time in the D-League to continue his growth as a player.
The Blazers recently signed Ronnie Price to compete with Nolan Smith for backup minutes at point guard behind Lillard. Price is a solid defender, but doesn't provide a lot offensively, and is expected to assume a mentor role to Lillard and Smith. Portland also was involved in two sign-and-trade deals. The Blazers sent Kurt Thomas and a re-signed Raymond Felton to the Knicks for Jared Jeffries, Dan Gadzuric (whose fully-non guaranteed contract made him an easy cut), and the draft rights to F Kostas Papanikolaou and F Georgios Prentezis. Both Prentezis and Papanikolaou are likely to be stashed in Europe for at least one more season, but Jeffries (if healthy) could be an option at both small and power forward for the Blazers . The team also received a re-signed Sasha Pavlovic (as well as two second round picks in 2013) in exchange for the draft rights to 2011 2nd round pick Jon Diebler in the Courtney Lee to Boston trade. Pavlovic is a slightly above average defender, but his shooting and athletic ability are nothing to write home about, which makes a spot in the rotation a fairly big question mark.

Departing Players
C Hasheem Thabeet (FA - Thunder)
PF Craig Smith
PG Jonny Flynn
PG Raymond Felton (trade - Knicks)
PF Kurt Thomas (trade - Knicks)
SG Jamal Crawford
Final Thoughts: The Blazers made an unsuccessful attempt to restricted free agent center Roy Hibbert from the Indiana Pacers, but it was a smart, aggressive play at a position of need. The team also took two boom-or-bust prospects in Lillard and Leonard, and if the team even hits on one of those two guys then the draft was a success. Don't sleep on Will Barton...while he's not a great shooter, his slashing ability, rebounding and defensive potential could make him a viable rotation option. The team was able to retain Batum, but is probably overpaying a player whose career averages to this point are fairly pedestrian. All-in-all, the Trail Blazers didn't make the big splash that many fans were hoping for, and the 2012-2013 season could see the team take a half-step back in what seems to be a prorated re-build/re-tooling. While the offseason wasn't a unmitigated success, Olshey has taken some calculated risks that could pay off big down the road.

Grade: C+

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