As Blazers fans, many of us have run the gamut of emotions over the past six years. The emergence of rookie Brandon Roy as a leader both on and off the floor ushered in a new era for the team, which was desperately seeking to move on from the "Jail Blazers" era of the early 2000's. The selection of Greg Oden had most of us thinking about Portland becoming a championship contender in the not-so-distant future, with Oden and Roy forming a "Big Three" with fellow young big man LaMarcus Aldridge.
Ever since Oden fractured his kneecap, a part of the collective hearts of Blazers fans broke with that moment. Since that time, we've seen Brandon Roy's knees deteriorate until he retired prior to the start of this season. The team also announced Oden suffered another "setback" in his rehabilitation from knee surgery, and after rehab failed, was sent in to have his knee scoped. While performing the scope, the doctors determined Oden had to undergo another microfracture surgery, his third since being selected #1 overall in the 2007 draft, which effectively ended his tenure as a Blazer after only 82 career games played over five seasons.
After a 42-point loss to the New York Knicks just days before the trade deadline, Portland fired longtime head coach Nate McMillan. After several years worth of great coaching jobs, McMillan's message seemed to fall on deaf ears, and when a coach loses the locker room, his job is often next to go. The team traded away veterans Gerald Wallace and Marcus Camby for picks and expiring contracts, and due to the lopsided trades, the Blazers were forced to cut several players, one of which was Greg Oden.
McMillan was replaced with assistant Kaleb Canales, a 34 year old former video intern for the team. Interim GM Chad Buchanan smartly claimed power forward J.J. Hickson off of waivers from Sacramento, restoring some of the frontcourt depth lost from the Camby trade. Hickson struggled in Sacramento this season, falling out of favor with head coach Keith Smart, but has been stellar since joining the Blazers.
Most recently, LaMarcus Aldridge underwent an MRI after experiencing discomfort in his hip. The MRI revealed a labral tear in his hip which requires surgery, ending his season after reaching his first All-Star game.
The team have just five players under contract for the 2012-2013 season entering this offseason, and could have as much as $25 million in cap space to spend this summer. With that being said, here are five steps the Blazers should take to help the team return to relevance.
1) Hire a permanent general manager
The Blazers have been without a pemanent GM since Rich Cho was fired after less than one year on the job. Owner Paul Allen has not been able to keep his hands off personnel decisions, which makes the Trail Blazers opening less than desirable. Steve Kerr, current TNT analyst and former (mediocre) Suns general manager recently turned down the Blazers overtures, removing his name from the mix for the job.
Team president Larry Miller has stated that his ideal candidate would possess a wealth of prior general manager experience. I wonder if an established former GM (Donnie Walsh, Geoff Petrie) would really want to take a job where his decisions and ideas could be constantly questioned and undermined by a "hands-on" owner.
The team has a solid candidate in-house already, as interim GM Chad Buchanan has done a fairly good job since replacing Cho. I just don't know if Allen and others in upper management would be willing to allow him the freedom to build the team.
Regardless of who the team hires, they need to have a general manager in place by no later than the end of April. The team will need solid leadership as they build their draft and free agent big boards.
2) Re-sign Nicolas Batum
The Blazers were unable to reach an agreement with Batum on a contract extension before the deadline this year, so Batum will be a restricted free agent this summer (provided the Blazers tender Batum a qualifying offer, which is a no-brainer). Whether Batum was given a low-ball offer, or his asking price was too high for the front office, there's little doubt that he should be a significant part of Portland's future.
While Batum still struggles with consistency, he could very likely command a contract upwards of $7 million per season. A solid outside shooter, he's also a very good perimeter defender, capable of guarding anything from point guard to some power forwards. Batum could also potentially improve his ball-handling, but is one of the better two-way wings in the game right now, so Portland's new GM (whoever that may be) would be wise to try and sign him as quickly as possible. His "restricted" status could scare off some teams, but he could receive a toxic (front-loaded) contract which could force Portland to commit more money early in his contract, and reduce the team's potential to sign other free agents.
3) Hire a head coach
Canales has done a great job with a somewhat undermanned roster, including road wins over the Bulls and Mavericks. At 34, he'll more than likely be a full-time head coach in the league, but when teams bring in a new general manager, they typically like to bring in "their" guy.
The Blazers under McMillan were largely a half-court basketball team that relied on solid rebounding and defense to grind out games. The front office will likely have a good amount of flexibility to build this team whatever way they want, but could benefit from running a more up-tempo style like Canales has done thus far.
A couple of coaches I realistically think the Blazers could pursue are former Lakers assistant Brian Shaw and current Spurs assistant Mike Budenholzer. Shaw in particular would be an intriguing option, as he was an assistant under Phil Jackson, and was the preferred choice to succeed Jackson by Kobe Bryant. Budenholzer would also be a good choice, as he's cut his teeth under Gregg Popovich with the Spurs. Former Blazers assistant (and current Hornets coach) Monty Williams, was great in Portland and has done a good job with an injury-plagued New Orleans squad, was also an assistant under "Pop".
4) Acquire a new point guard
While he's played better since the coaching change, the likelihood that Portland retains point guard Raymond Felton after this season is minimal. Coming into training camp out of shape and an inability to produce early in the season will likely have Portland looking elsewhere for help at the '1'.
The team could look to the draft for a player like Weber State's Damian Lillard or North Carolina's Kendall Marshall, but both players have fairly big questions about their respective games, and could be a reach when Portland picks in the first round.
Deron Williams will most likely decline his player option with the New Jersey Nets, and be the premiere player on the market. While Portland would love to sign Williams, the fact is there are larger markets Williams could go to, and would still present him with a better chance to win a title. Steve Nash is still a very effective player, but doesn't fit in with the team's desire to build a long-term winner, and at 38 years old, his effectiveness could start to fall precipitously at any time.
Portland would be wise to pursue a player like Houston's Goran Dragic, who has been great for the Rockets since Kyle Lowry went down from injury. In his 21 starts this season, Dragic has averaged 18.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 8.6 assists and 1.9 steals while shooting 50.6% from the field (including 41.1% from three).
Rookie Nolan Smith is an above-average on-ball defender, but has struggled with the transition to point guard. He can create off the dribble, but hasn't shown the ball-handling to consistently beat solid pressure. Jonny Flynn has shown flashes after being acquired from Houston at the trade deadline, but hasn't taken care of the ball consistently enough to be considered as a potential starter the next season.
5) Add frontcourt depth
The only true big man Portland has under contract next season is LaMarcus Aldridge. The team will almost surely tender J.J. Hickson this offseason, joining Batum as a restricted free agent. Hickson could also see some interest from teams needing frontcourt depth, and his solid play since joining Portland has only increased his value this offseason.
The team could also look to retain Joel Przybilla, who is a fan favorite, and still productive. Przybilla is past his prime, but is still a solid rebounder with a great defensive basketball IQ, and would be effective as a reserve.
Kurt Thomas and Craig Smith will likely both be looking for new teams. Thomas could well retire after the season, but should he want to continue playing, will likely try to latch on with a contender as a reserve. Smith had his moments this season, but tends to over-dribble with the ball in the post, which had him fall out of favor with Nate McMillan.
Even if the team retains both Hickson and Przybilla, the team will likely use at least one of their draft picks on either a '4' or '5'. The draft is especially deep at power forward, where as many as ten could be drafted in the first round. Realistic picks could include Ohio State PF Jared Sullinger, Illinois C Meyers Leonard or North Carolina PF/C Tyler Zeller.
Luke Babbitt has been an effective outside shooter since entering the rotation, but is very limited defensively, and shouldn't be counted on as anything more than a 9th or 10th man. Shawne Williams was acquired from the Nets, and has yet to play for Portland due to a foot injury that will keep him out the rest of the season. Williams can play both forward positions and has great physical tools, but is most effective as a "stretch-4". The team may also look to pursue a buyout with Williams, as he's set to make $3 million next season, and doesn't appear to be a long-term fit in Portland This year's draft has a glut of small forwards, including guys like Baylor's Perry Jones III and Kentucky's Terrence Jones, who could fill roles at both forward positions off the bench.
Ultimately, while the Blazers have talent on the roster, they need to upgrade their depth, as well as improved play from their starting PG in order to see a return to the postseason. Should Portland follow these steps, we could very well see the team make the playoffs in 2012-2013.
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