Is time running out for McMillan in Portland?

After a hot 7-2 start to the season that saw the Blazers rattle off big wins over the 76ers, Thunder (in OKC), Lakers and Clippers, many (including myself) thought that this would be the season the Blazers finally looked like a team that could avoid another first round exit in the Western Conference playoffs. Instead, Portland has been terrible on the road (5-12), and is in serious danger of missing the postseason entirely.

While inconsistent point guard play from Felton (and more recently Crawford) and rebounding has been a problem, perhaps the biggest problem has been at head coach. Nate McMillan is often lauded as one of the better coaches in the association, but has reached the second round of the postseason just once in eleven full seasons as a head coach (5 with Seattle, 6 with Portland).

To make matters worse, his entire tenure in Portland has been marred by inconsistent point guard play. Even when having a legitimate talent in Andre Miller, they butted heads, and Miller backed up Steve Blake early in the season before McMillan finally came to his senses. While I like Steve Blake, he should never be anything more than a backup point guard. Other point guards during his tenure with Portland include Jarrett Jack (now playing well in New Orleans), Sebastian Telfair, Jerryd Bayless, Blake and now Felton. McMillan was a stellar defensive '1' in his playing career, but doesn't give his players (specifically point guards) much of a leash to make plays. It's no coincidence that Felton played well in both Mike D'Antoni's system in New York, as well as George Karl's system in Denver, but struggles in McMillan's post-entry, stand-and-watch offense in Portland. Despite the fact that he has said he wants the team to play up-tempo this season, he still has little patience for the inevitable turnovers that come when players try to force the tempo.

Another concerning trend from McMillan is the high amount of minutes his key players see. Despite a condensed schedule due to the lockout, McMillan is giving heavy minutes to LaMarcus Aldridge (36.2) and Gerald Wallace (35.9), and has been overplaying 39 year-old Kurt Thomas (15.9) and soon-to-be 38 year old Marcus Camby (23.5). In doing so, he's not using fresh-legged players like Craig Smith and Chris Johnson. While Smith is undersized and a bit of a defensive liability, he is a solid post scorer. Johnson has some Camby to his game, and would likely be more effective at shoring up Portland's sub-par interior defense than the athletically challenged Thomas.

McMillan is also very stubborn in giving young players any kind of consistent playing time. The only rookie who has played more than 24 minutes a night under McMillan was Brandon Roy (who played four seasons at the University of Washington). That means that current All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge and former #1 overall pick Greg Oden didn't even see half a game in their rookie seasons. Even this year, promising youngster Elliot Williams (who is essentially a rookie as he didn't play the entire 2010-2011 season due to a knee injury) has averaged just six minutes per game despite the struggles of Crawford and Wes Matthews at shooting guard. The bottom line is, McMillan is more about short-term results than long-term improvement.

McMillan was a backup for much of his playing career, and perhaps his unwillingness to give young players time on the court has something to do with his own perceived slights during his playing days (like Gary Payton being given the starting job over McMillan without an open competition). If the Blazers are somehow able to turn this season around, then Nate's issues with utilizing young players will be swept under the rug for at least another season. At this point in his tenure with Portland, simply reaching the playoffs is not enough, and if this team isn't able to progress, McMillan may find himself looking for a new coaching gig come this summer.