Well folks, after a long season, we've finally reached The Big Game. The New York Giants are facing the New England Patriots in a rematch from Super Bowl XLII, where the Giants ended the Patriots hopes for a perfect season with a 17-14 win. Tom Brady was harassed all day, and the potent Patriots offense was held to 274 yards. While this is a different season, there will be some similarities in the teams' gameplans.
New York Giants
Overview: Going back to the regular season, the G-Men are currently riding a five game winning streak. Eli Manning has been the offensive catalyst, throwing for 1,496 yards in that span, with 12 TD to only two interceptions. Also of note is the fact that the New York running game has found it stride in the postseason, averaging over 117 yards per game. While that number may not blow people away, there are two reasons that number is significant: 1) the added balance allows Manning to effectively utilize play-action (one of his best attributes) and; 2) two of their opponents in that time, Atlanta (6th) and San Francisco (1st), had two of the best run defenses in the league during the regular season.
Defensively, this team possesses one of the best pass rushes of any in the league. While Jason Pierre-Paul finished with a team-high 16.5 sacks, it is hardly a one man show. Osi Umenyiora had 9 sacks in 9 regular season games this season, while Justin Tuck (a former double-digit sack player) had five. Other solid pass rushers include LB Mathias Kiwanuka (3.5), DT Chris Canty (4.0) and Dave Tollefson (5.0). The one area of concern for the Giants' 'D' is their secondary, which allowed 255.1 yards per game. While the Giants did record 20 interceptions, they also surrendered 28 TD through the air (t-26th).
Kicker Lawerence Tynes was 19-24 on field goals during the regular season, but was just 4-8 from kicks 40 yards and out. Punter Steve Weatherford has a strong leg that saw him average 45.7 yards per punt, with 25 of his 82 downed inside the 20. The Giants didn't have much success in the return game, as the averaged just 6.1 yards per punt return and 23.3 yards per kick return. On their coverage units, the Giants surrendered 9.9 yards per punt return and 22.9 yards per kick return.
Injuries: All six players listed on the Giants report are probable to play. I'll be keeping an eye on three of them throughout the game. Hakeem Nicks has battled nagging injuries (shoulder, hamstring, ankle), and occasionally has to come out of the game to get stretched out. Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) was a limited participant a couple of days this week, but will probably get the start (though I wouldn't be surprised to see a more 50/50 split of the carries with Jacobs). Osi Umenyiora (ankle, knee) is probably the Giants second-biggest weapon on defense, and has averaged a sack a game since returning from injury.
Keys to the Game
1) Balanced play-calling: While a 50/50 run-pass split in today's game is unheard of (unless you're the Denver Broncos), offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride has to find a way to keep the Patriots defense off balance. Despite their terrible numbers, any defense that can key on just one phase of offense (i.e. the pass) generally has much more success. I expect the Giants to run of first down close to an even split, which should set up Manning to use play-action to test the Patriots secondary with Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.
2) Beat up Brady: The Giants have had success against the Patriots in large part due to the fact that they are able to generate a great pass rush using largely just their defensive line. In doing this, it allows defensive coordinator Perry Fewell to drop seven in pass coverage. As a result, Brady has smaller open areas when facing zone, and double-coverage on at least one receiver (two if the Giants employ 'zero' coverage). The Giants will need to hit Brady early and often, which will give any quarterback (including Brady) happy feet in the pocket.
3) Limit yards after catch: Despite their statistically prolific passing offense, the Patriots do most of their damage with undeneath routes to WR Wes Welker and TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The Patriots offense almost works in reverse, with the tight ends often stretching the field vertically, opening up the underneath routes for Welker and Deion Branch
New England Patriots
Overview: The Patriots are riding a ten game winning streak entering the Super Bowl. Their last loss? November 6th in Foxborough to the very same Giants they face on Sunday. New England boasts one of the premier offenses, as Rob Gronkowski had the single greatest statistical season for a tight end in NFL history. Tom Brady finished with the second most passing yards in NFL history (behind Drew Brees), and Wes Welker again led the NFL with 122 receiving yards. The Patriots use a running back committee that includes Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Stevan Ridley and Kevin Faulk, and have good secondary options in tight end Aaron Hernandez and Deion Branch.
Defensively, the Patriots finished 31st in the league in both total yards and passing yards allowed. Despite their propensity for giving up yards through the air, they still finished with an AFC-best 23 interceptions, and sacked opposing quarterbacks 40 times. Defensive tackle Vince Wilfork does a good job of clogging up the middle, and head coach Bill Belichick is one of the best in football at disguising coverages, which helps put his players in position to make plays. The pass rush will lean heavily on Mark Anderson (10.0 sacks), Rob Ninkovich (6.5) and Wilfork (3.5).
Kicker Steven Gostkowski was 27-32 on field goals during the season, including 10-13 from 40+ yards out. Punter Zoltan Mezko averaged 46.5 yards per punt, and had 24 of 57 punts downed inside the opponents 20 yard line. New England averaged 10.2 yards per punt return (1 TD) and 21.4 yards per kick return, while they allowed just 8.5 yards per punt return and 21.6 yards per kick return.
Injuries: The Pats lost key pass-rusher Andre Carter (10.0 sacks) in mid-December to a torn left quadriceps, which will put more pressure on the aforementioned pass-rushers to harass Eli Manning. Rob Gronkowski suffered a high-ankle sprain late in the Pats AFC Championship victory over the Ravens. While he is very likely going to play in the Super Bowl, how effective he'll be remains to be seen.
Keys to the Game
1) Protect Tom Brady: Brady was sacked just twice in their meeting earlier in the year, but did have to deal with consistent pressure throughout the game. In their Super Bowl loss in 2008, Brady was sacked six times. Brady is simply deadly with time to throw, so I expect the Patriots to frequently use their running backs to chip the Giants' defensive ends to help out the offensive line.
2) Third Down Conversions: The Patriots converted just 1/3 of their 15 third downs against the Giants in their regular season matchup. The Patriots can achieve this by running the ball on early downs to set up more manageable down-and-distance. If New England is able to avoid third and long, they can use their no-huddle to wear down the Giants pass rushers.
3) Disguise Coverage: Eli Manning has been playing as well as any quarterback in the league over the last couple months, and has perhaps the best receiving tandem in the league in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks (who didn't play in their regular season matchup due to injury). The Patriots had reasonable success against the Giants in the loss, but will need to do utilize well-disguised formations to try and confuse Manning and his pre-snap reads. If that Pats can create a little bit of confusion, Manning could very well make a game-changing mistake.
Game Breakdown
This game could very well play out similarly to the teams' two previous matchups (both Giants wins). It appears as though Eli Manning has a more favorable matchup against a Patriots defense that is vulnerable through the air, and will be without one of their top pass rushers. Brady will have to face a defense that's surrendering just 321 yards and 13 points per game this postseason, and has recorded total sacks in their previous three playoff games. I give a slight coaching edge to the Patriots, as Bill Belichick has three Super Bowl rings, and is probably a little bit better game-planner than Tom Coughlin.
Prediction
Giants 30, Patriots 23
The Giants once-beleaguered running game has found its stride in the playoffs, and Eli Manning has performed as consistently well as any quarterback in this years' postseason. New England will likely have their moments, but the Giants will hit Brady enough to keep him (slightly) out of rhythm, giving the Giants their second Super Bowl win over the Patriots since 2008.
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