In the history of the Buffalo Bills, which dates back to its first season in the AFL (1960), has had no shortage of great receivers. Future Hall of Famer Andre Reed (951 catches, 13,198 yards, 87 TD) was a seven-time Pro Bowler, and was a key cog for a team that reached four consecutive Super Bowls in the 1990's. Eric Moulds (764 receptions, 9,995 yards, 49 TD) was a three-time Pro Bowler, as well as a three-time All-Pro selection. The team has also had players like Peerless Price, Lee Evans and Frank Lewis crack the 1,000 yard-barrier, as well as guys like Elbert Dubenion and James Lofton be significant contributors on the team over its 52-year history.
Despite the solid history of good receivers, the team hadn't had a receiver record 1,000+ receiving yards in a single season. Until Steve Johnson. A seventh round pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, Johnson spent his first two seasons in relative anonymity, recording just 12 catches for 112 yards and two touchdowns in 16 games (1 start). When Terrell Owens signed with the Bengals before the 2010 season, there was a big question who would play opposite Lee Evans as the Bills' #2 receiver.
After a few short games, Johnson gained the full-time #2 spot (beating out Roscoe Parrish), and has been one of the more productive receivers in the game. After a 2010 season that saw him reel in 82 catches for 1,083 yards and 10 TD, the team traded Lee Evans to Baltimore before the start of 2011, making Johnson the de-facto #1 receiver. With defenses now likely focusing in on Johnson, many believed he'd have a hard time duplicating his success from the previous season. In spite of the increased attention in coverage, Johnson managed to grab 76 ball for 1,004 yards and 7 TD, becoming the first player in Bills history to reach that number in consecutive seasons.
At 6'2", 210 pounds, Johnson is a physical player that can beat press coverage, and is also a dangerous player after the catch who displays above-average agility for his size. While he's not a speedster (4.59 at the Combine in 2008), Johnson often uses multiple moves at the snap to get the defender off-balance, and is one of the better route-runners in the league. His success in two games against Darrelle Revis this season (11 catches, 169 yards, 1 TD in two games) would lead some to believe he could be one of the elite receivers in the game. The biggest problem for Stevie Johnson is...Stevie Johnson.
He's struggled with drops in the last two seasons, including a sure-fire touchdown in overtime against the Steelers in 2010 that led to his now-infamous post-game interview. He's also a player that loves to have fun, including some pretty entertaining celebrations. The problem is the unsportsmanlike conduct penalties that follow hurt his team, so much so that head coach Chan Gailey benched Johnson for the remainder of the teams' 2011 season finale against the Patriots after his third such penalty of the season.
With multiple reports saying that both sides aren't close after exchanging contract proposals this past week, I thought it'd be a good idea to try and find a "fair" contract for both sides in this exchange. Here is the list of players in the league with 75+ receptions, 1,000+ receiving yards and 7+ TD each of the past two seasons:
Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe, Hakeem Nicks, Marques Colston and Steve Johnson. While that doesn't take into account injuries (Greg Jennings, Miles Austin), breakout players (Mike Wallace, Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson) or holdout issues (Vincent Jackson), there's little doubt that Stevie is likely one of the top 15 receivers in the league, as he's one of just six players to put up those numbers in back-to-back seasons.
For arguments sake, lets say that Johnson is the #15 receiver in the league...what should his salary look like? In order to determine that, you have to look at players with similar numbers their past two season entering free agency.
*Anquan Boldin had a combined 173 catches, 2,062 yards and 15 TD in his last two years with the Cardinals. After being traded to Baltimore, he agreed to a three year extension for $25 million, in addition to the roughly $3 million, making the deal essentially 4 years, $28 million ($10 million guaranteed).
*Miles Austin combined for 150 catches, 2,361 yards and 18 TD before he received a six year, $54 million extension from Dallas ($18 million guaranteed).
*Santonio Holmes caught 131 passes for 1,994 yards and 11 TD between 2009 and 2010 before signing a new 5 year, $45 million contract ($24 million guaranteed) with the Jets after the lockout.
Despite having pretty similar numbers, Johnson is playing in a much smaller market than both Holmes and Austin, and doesn't have the sustained success that Boldin had before getting his contract extension. That being said, Buffalo really doesn't have a true #2 receiver on the team, let alone someone capable of replacing Johnson's production as a #1. While Ralph Wilson has been notoriously cheap in trying to retain his players, the Bills probably need Johnson more than Johnson needs the Bills. Stevie is one of the Bills' most popular players, and will be just 26 years old next season. If the team is serious about winning, retaining Johnson has to be priority number one this offseason. After trying to digest the numbers, I think a fair deal would probably fall in the lines of a 5-year, $35 million deal ($14 million guaranteed).
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