Sunday, February 12, 2012

Potential Destinations for Peyton Manning

With March 8th looming, Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay is in an unenviable position. His franchise quarterback Peyton Manning is still trying to recover from three neck surgeries in the last two years, the most recent procedure costing him the entire 2011 season. Without Manning, the Colts floundered, losing their first 13 games of the season, and ending up in a tie with St. Louis for the worst record in the league.
Manning is due a $28 million roster bonus in less than a month, and while both sides have said they'd like to find a way to keep Peyton with the Colts, the writing appears to be on the wall. Whether it was their back-and-forth during Super Bowl week about the environment at the Colts facilities, or the fact that ownership has said they're going to draft a quarterback with the #1 overall pick this season, the odds of Manning staying in Indianapolis seems to shrink by the day. Should he hit the free agent market, here are some of the teams that could be interested in his services.

Washington Redskins
The Redskins were simply putrid at the quarterback position, as Rex Grossman (16 TD, 20 INT, 72.4 quarterback rating) and John Beck (2 TD, 4 INT, 72.1 quarterback rating) seemed horribly out of place as an NFL starter. Owner Daniel Snyder has never been shy in doling out big contracts, and Mike Shanahan hasn't had an elite level quarterback since John Elway was under center for the Broncos in the late 1990's. The receiving corps needs an upgrade, but if the fron office is able to retain tight end Fred Davis, it would give Manning his next potential Dallas Clark.
Fit: Poor
For my money, I have a hard time seeing Manning going to an offense whose line was largely mediocre in pass protection (41 sacks allowed), and the lack of a solid running game or true #1 receiver. If Manning were to play in Washington, it would either have to be because he wants to play for Mike Shanahan, or he really likes what Daniel Snyder has to offer (money).


New York Jets
Mark Sanchez has yet to show the kind of improvement expected of a #5 overall pick in his three years in the Big Apple. To make matters worse for the Jets, their two biggest rivals faced each other in the Super Bowl. For all the pomp, circumstance and braggadocio that head coach Rex Ryan and the team brings to the table, the fact of the matter is their weakest link is at the most important position in the game. If healthy, Manning is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and would add instant credibility to the thought that the Jets are a true contender.
Fit: Good
As far as the potential for success, this is probably Manning's best option, but his arrival would likely signal a vote of no confidence for Sanchez, who would likely either need to re-negotiate his contract, or else be released.

Miami Dolphins
With former Green Bay offensive coordinator Joe Philbin taking over in Miami, there's a strong likelihood that the new regime will look to bring in a new quarterback. The Dolphins have the best receiver of any potential destination for Peyton, as Brandon Marshall caught 81 balls for 1,214 yards and 6 TD in 2011 with the combination of Chad Henne and Matt Moore throwing to him. They also have a solid ground game with Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas, and Bush gives him a solid receiving threat out of the backfield as well.
Fit: Good
While I still think Miami will likely pursue Green Bay backup Matt Flynn (who is an unrestricted free agent, and is familiar with Philbin's playbook and philosophy), Miami could look at Manning as a two-year player, and potentially draft a quarterback like Ryan Tannehill or Brock Osweiler in the first couple of rounds as developmental prospects.

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is an interesting potential destination for Manning, as the 'Hawks have a number of solid players on both sides of the ball, and actually played well in the second half of the season, including wins over the Ravens and the Super Bowl champion Giants. With Sidney Rice likely returning healthy next season, and young playmakers like Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate, Manning would have no shortage of targets. The team will likely first have to try and re-sign running back Marshawn Lynch, who ran for 1,204 yards and 12 TD this season, as the team lacks anything resembling a #1 back behind him.
Fit: Okay
Tarvaris Jackson played fairly well despite dealing with a nagging pectoral injury for a good portion of the season, but a healthy Manning would clearly be an upgrade, and likely see the Seahawks emerge as a serious threat to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West.

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers were a couple of botched punt returns away from the Super Bowl this season, as the team played a conservative, ball-control style of offense this past season. Alex Smith played at a Pro Bowl level for much of the season, even if he didn't have gaudy passing numbers. With Smith a free agent, it's likely the team will try and retain him. Even if they do, they'd be foolish to not at least have team doctors and the coaching staff take a look at Manning should he become a free agent. San Francisco has a solid bunch of running backs, and tight end Vernon Davis has amazing physical tools, and could build momentum after two huge postseason performances. The team still could use another outside receiver, as Michael Crabtree is their only consistent threat, while Ted Ginn and Kyle Williams work much better in the slot.
Fit: Great
I have a hard time believing the team would sign Manning considering the season Smith had, but should he sign in San Francisco, I'd put the 49ers as the front-runner to win the Lombardi Trophy next season.

Tennessee Titans
The Titans are on this list because of those that believe if Manning were to be cut, he'd want the chance to prove to Colts' brass that he's far from finished, and staying in the AFC South would give him two opportunities every year. In a way, it would make sense for the Titans, as Matt Hasselbeck's play down the stretch seemed to slip (just two games with an 80+ quarterback rating the last eight games, compared to six in the seasons' first half), and the coaching staff could believe that Locker needs another season (or two) of development before he's ready to start.
Fit: Good
A lot of the fit depends on if Chris Johnson is able to return to form following a disappointing 2011 campaign, as well as the health of wide receiver Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in week 3. Before the injury, Britt was one of the best young wideouts in the game, and is a physical mismatch for most corners, as he's a strong 6'3", 215 pounds, that's also quicker than he appears.

Final Thoughts
Ultimately, I have a strong feeling that the Jets will be Manning's likeliest destination, as the chance to win another Lombardi Trophy will be high on Manning's list. I don't really see San Francisco making a big run at Manning, but the Dolphins are my dark horse to sign him, as the team has the offensive weapons to help a healthy Peyton return to his All-Pro form.

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