Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Despite transition, White Sox a sleeper in AL Central

After the departures of staff ace Mark Buehrle and manager Ozzie Guillen to the Miami Marlins, there's little doubt that the White Sox are a team in transition. While Buehrle leaving is a big blow, I'm not sold on the idea that Guillen no longer in the south side of Chicago. His constant negativity and public deridings of players had to wear on the collective psyche of the ballclub. Guillen's outspoken nature was almost endearing when the team was winning the World Series, but became almost toxic over the past two seasons.

New manager Robin Ventura should be a good change from Guillen, as while he won't be afraid to call out a player if they're not performing, he'll most likely do it in a private setting. Despite the fact he has no prior managerial experience, Ventura is a former All-Star and Gold Glover who has a solid baseball mind.

Jake Peavy has struggled to get healthy after injuring his back during the 2010 season, but was already a staff ace with the Padres (92-68, 3.29 ERA, 1,554 K) and still has good enough stuff to return to form. Surrounding Peavy in the rotation will likely be RHP's Gavin Floyd (12-13, 4.37 ERA) and Philip Humber (9-9, 3.75), as well as lefty John Danks (8-12, 4.33 ERA). The fifth spot in the rotation will likely come down to righty Dylan Axelrod (1-0, 2.89 ERA in three starts) and former reliever Chris Sale (2-2, 8 saves, 2.79 ERA). While Sale has the better pedigree (13th overall pick in 2010 Draft, 100 MPH fastball), it remains to be seen how he'll respond to being stretched out, knowing he won't be able to throw every pitch with 100% effort. Axelrod has been a starter throughout his time in the minors including going 6-1 with a 2.27 ERA in 15 starts for Triple-A Charlotte last season.

If Sale remains in the rotation, the bullpen may end up struggling, as Matt Thornton struggled as the closer early in 2011 before being replaced by Sergio Santos. Jesse Crain and Will Ohman are solid (if unspectacular), but the success of the bullpen could fall on prospects like Simon Castro (acquired in the Carlos Quentin trade), Gregory Infante and Addison Reed.

The starting lineup will likely be anchored by veterans Paul Konerko (.300 BA, 31 HR, 105 RBI), who is coming off his fifth All-Star appearance, and A.J. Pierzynski (.287 BA, 8 HR, 48 RBI). New arrival Kosuke Fukudome will likely take Quentin's spot in the outfield, and is a solid contact hitter that has a career .760 OPS. Alejandro De Aza is the likely starter in left field, and should do a good job of replacing Juan Pierre's base-stealing, and actually had a .524 slugging percentage in 54 games during the 2011 season. The success of the offense will likely rest on bounce-back seasons from third baseman Gordon Beckham (.230 BA, 10 HR, 44 RBI), center fielder Alex Rios (.227 BA, 13 HR, 44 RBI) and designated hitter Adam Dunn (.159 BA, 11 HR, 42 RBI). The struggles of Dunn and Rios are especially concerning, as the two are each making $12+ million this season. Dunn especially struggled, as he struck out 177 times in 415 at-bats last season. If even one of them can approach their career averages, the lineup could find itself in the top half of the American League in runs scored.

While the Detroit Tigers are clearly the best team in the AL Central, if Chicago can get contributions from some of its young players, as well as a bounceback season from a couple of its veterans, Chicago could find itself at least in the hunt for the Wild Card when September rolls around.

No comments:

Post a Comment