Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans - Both teams are limping into the postseason, with Cincinnati having dropped five of their last eight games, and the Texans having fallen in three straight. In fact, the last game the Texans won was in Cincinnati in week fourteen. In that game, Houston overcame four turnovers and a 13-point halftime deficit thanks to surprisingly effective passing from a third-string quarterback in just his second career start.
For the Texans to record their first playoff win (at home no less), I believe they'll need to be willing to throw on first and second down, which will prevent the Bengals defense from over-loading the box on what they believe will be clear running downs for the #2 rushing offense in the league. The passing game should get a boost, as Andre Johnson played (albeit sparingly) in their week seventeen game against the Titans, and should be close to 100% for this contest.
As for the Bengals, they have yet to beat a playoff team in seven contests this season. The good news in that is that only one of those seven contests was anything more than a one-score loss (35-7 at Pittsburgh in week thirteen). Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has had a very solid year, and does a very good job of minimizing mistakes. Fellow rookie A.J. Green reached the Pro Bowl this year, and uses his athletic frame and great ball skills to already be among the elite deep ball threats in the league. The key for the Bengals is to establish their running game, setting up the deep play-action pass for A.J. Green, who at 6'4", 210 pound frame, is a physical mismatch for any corner in the league.
Prediction: Texans 20, Bengals 16. I see the Texans passing a little bit early to open up the running game for Arian Foster and Ben Tate, with T.J. Yates hitting a few timely passes on third down, fighting off a very game Bengals team to advance to the second round of the playoffs.
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints - In what could easily be the most exciting game of the NFL's postseason, it will have two of the top three passers in the league, Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees. Combined, the two threw for 10,514 yards during the regular season, as well as 87 touchdowns through the air.
For Detroit, there are two areas they need to be effective in to give themselves a chance to win: establishing the run and stopping the Saints passing game. In their week seventeen loss to the Packers, they allowed Aaron Rodgers' backup Matt Flynn to set Green Bay team records in passing touchdowns in a game (6), as well as passing yards in a game (480). The most frightening part of that is the fact that Green Bay was without their top wide receiver, Greg Jennings, who was nursing a sprained MCL. As good as Detroit's passing game has been, they'll need to have a presence in the running game in order to keep the Saints equally potent offense off the field, allowing their front four enough rest to get after Drew Brees.
On the season, New Orleans is 8-0 at home, scoring over 40 points per game, as well as racking up nearly 500 yards of offense per game. A large part of that is Drew Brees, who is now the all-time single season record holder for passing yards with 5,476. He has a great supporting cast around him, including wide receivers Marques Colston and Devery Henderson, running backs Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, as well as Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham. The key for New Orleans will be to protect Drew Brees, as in their three losses, Brees has been sacked nine times, whereas he was only sacked 15 times in their 13 wins.
Prediction: Saints 45, Lions 34. In what should be a shootout, the Saints have just too many weapons offensively, and are just too good at home, though the Lions will give the Saints pass defense a test, as Calvin Johnson will likely still get his numbers.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants - Both teams come into this game having won three of their last four games.
Michael Turner is the man that gets the Falcons offense rolling, rushing for 1,340 yards and 11 touchdowns. Despite the fact that the Falcons prefer to run the ball, their passing offense was even more effective, as Matt Ryan threw for 4,177 yards and 29 touchdowns on the year. Pass-catchers like receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones, along with tight end Tony Gonzalez give Ryan plenty of options when he drops back. The key for Atlanta is to contain the Giants receiving duo of Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, who combined for over 2,700 yards and 16 touchdowns.
The Giants are a team that relies heavily on QB Eli Manning, who threw for 4,933 yards and 29 touchdowns on the year. Manning is a very adept play-action passer, and with deep threats like Cruz and Nicks can stretch the field vertically better than most quarterbacks in the NFL. Their running game has not done well this season, ranking dead last in the league with an average of only 89.2 yards per game. Among the best weapons for the Giants is their pass rush, which totaled 48 sacks on the year. All of their defensive lineman are solid at pass-rushing, including second-year player Jason Pierre-Paul (16.5), Osi Umenyiora (9.0) and Justin Tuck (5.0). The key for New York will be two-fold: establishing the run and pressuring QB Matt Ryan.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Giants 24. Atlanta should be able to take advantage of a Giants defense that gives up far too many yards (376.4/game), as the Falcons aren't a team that typically beats themselves.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos - Both teams enter the postseason somewhat beat up, as the Steelers will be without RB Rashard Mendenhall, while the Broncos will be without starting safety and key defensive cog Brian Dawkins.
Pittsburgh hasn't really looked like a 12-4 team in recent weeks, their only convincing win coming over the 2-14 Rams in week sixteen. Ben Roethlisberger is still dealing with a high ankle sprain suffered in a week fourteen win over the Browns, and the team will also likely be without center Maurkice Pouncey, also injured in that game. Pittsburgh's defense has been good statistically, but has forced just 16 turnovers this season, far below their usual output. The key to this game for Pittsburgh will be to protect Roethlisberger, and their best option for that will be to get Mendenhall's replacement Isaac Redman and the running game going, keeping Broncos pass-rushers Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil at bay.
Denver has lost three straight games, and Tim Tebow has struggled with turnovers in those games. The Broncos have the number one rushing offense in the league, and Willis McGahee's resurgence has been a big part of their success. After taking over the starting role from Knowshon Moreno early in the season (Moreno is now on injured reserve), McGahee has been one of the league's better rusher. Tebow also does a great job of making plays with his legs, including a memorable game-winning touchdown run against the Jets. Denver's key to this game will be third down, as Tim Tebow has to be able to hit open receivers and keep the chains moving, as Denver doesn't have an offense that's built to come back from double-digit deficits.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Broncos 13. While the Steelers haven't looked great lately, the Broncos one-dimensional offense should be something that Steelers' defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is able to game-plan for, and the Steelers are almost always good for at least one or two explosive plays per game, and wide receivers Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are burners on the outside that have the potential to reach the end zone every time they touch the ball.
Regular Season: 169-87 (.660)
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