New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers - With the Saints coming off a 45-28 win over the Detroit Lions on Wild Card weekend, they now hit the road for a game against one of the league's stingiest defenses in the San Francisco 49ers, who just finished their bye week.
For the Saints, the key to their offense as always is the arm of quarterback Drew Brees, who threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns in their last game. While the Saints have the #1 pass offense and total offense in the league, as well as the #2 scoring offense, the team tends to struggle much more away from the Superdome. This season, they are 5-3 on the road, dropping games to Green Bay (15-1, no shame in that), Tampa Bay (4-12) and St. Louis (2-14). My keys to this game are:
For New Orleans: Protect Drew Brees. In two of their three losses (Green Bay and St. Louis), New Orleans' Brees was sacked a total of nine times. The 49ers have a good pass rush, led by rookie Aldon Smith's 14.0, and if a team is able to disrupt Brees' rhythm, they'll likely find themselves with a chance to win when the fourth quarter rolls around.
For San Francisco: Red Zone Efficiency. The one glaring area of concern for me with the 49ers is their lack of touchdowns when in the red zone. San Francisco was 30th in the league converting their red zone opportunities into six points (just under 41%), and against a team like the Saints, you can't afford to settle for three points. If San Francisco is able to put the ball into the end zone on sustained drives, they'll have a very good chance to win.
For Both Teams: Convert third down. The Saints finished the league first in that category at a whopping 57% conversion rate, while the 49ers finished next to last, converting only 29% of their third downs. If San Francisco wants to have a chance against the Saints, they'll need to improve upon that number. Sustained drvies lower the amount of possessions in a game, and it also would keep their defense rested, which is a good thing, because they'll need to be fresh against such an explosive team like New Orleans.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 27, New Orleans Saints 24. The 49ers will find success on the ground, and Alex Smith will convert a few big third downs to keep the chains moving to win the game, as the Saints road struggles continue, as the franchise has yet to win a playoff game on the road.
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots - Tim Tebow threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers this last week, including an 80-yard strike on the first play of overtime to win it against the Steelers, while New England is coming off it's bye as the AFC's number one seed.
At least on paper, Denver should have an easier time against a Patriots defense that ranked 31st overall and against the pass, as well as only middle of the pack (17th) in rush defense. This game will be a re-match of week fifteen in Denver, where three second quarter turnovers for the Broncos turned a 16-7 lead into a 27-16 halftime deficit that the Broncos never bounced back from. Despite the loss, Denver was able to learn that they could move the ball against the Patriots team, and when the defense was fresh, could do a good job of containing the Patriots passing attack.
My three keys to this game are:
For Denver: Third Down Passing. There are going to be at least a few times that the Broncos will need to rely on Tim Tebow to complete a pass to keep a drive alive. Like San Francisco, Denver will want to shorten the game to keep Tom Brady and the rest of the Patriots dangerous offense off of the field. If Tebow can play like he did against the Steelers this past week, then Denver will have a shot in the fourth quarter (aka Tebow Time).
For New England: Stop the running game. Despite Tebow's career day against the Steelers, every person who has watched Denver this season knows that their number one goal on offense is to run the football. New England will likely play with eight or nine players in the box, trying to force Tebow to throw more frequently. Buffalo and Kansas City both had a lot of success against the Broncos by doing just that, but the strategy ended up biting Pittsburgh. If New England can just keep Denver under 150 yards on the ground, they should have little problem taking this game.
For both teams: Protect the football. New England was +17 in turnover differential this season (3rd in the league), while Denver struggled creating turnovers (-12). The Patriots offense is so explosive that it is oftentimes able to overcome turnovers, but Denver is not a team that's built to overcome big deficits. Denver will likely need to be at least +1 in the turnover battle to have a chance.
Prediction: New England Patriots 34, Denver Broncos 20. The Patriots tight end tandem of Gronkowski and Hernandez are going to make it a long day for the linebackers of the Broncos, who will keep the game close most of the way.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens - Houston got its first ever playoff win, a 31-10 beatdown of the Bengals this past week, while Baltimore should be well-rested after its bye week. Both teams will likely find tough sledding on the ground in this game, as both rush defenses rank in the top four in the league. Here are the three keys to this game:
For Houston: Early down passing. Since Yates took over the starting role, the Texans have almost exclusively been running on first and second down, a fact that won't be overlooked by the Ravens' coaches. For the Texans to continue their playoff run, they'll need to put the ball in the air some to keep the Ravens honest. The good news is that Andre Johnson is now back healthy, so Yates will have more weapons through the air.
For Baltimore: Balanced play-calling. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron sometimes gets too cute with his play-calling in games, including their loss in Seattle where Ray Rice had a total of five carries, while quarterback Joe Flacco threw 52 times in their 22-16 loss. While it won't be easy to find running lanes against a stout Houston front seven, they need balance to avoid a ferocious Texans' pass rush.
For both teams: Pass protection. With both teams having good rush defenses, both Yates and Flacco will have to throw a good amount in this game. The Texans (44) and Ravens (48) were in the top six in sacks this season, and will no doubt be licking their chops when obvious passing downs arise. The line that keeps their quarterbacks upright the most should take this game.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 20, Houston Texans 13. While Joe Flacco may not be every Raven fans' dream for a quarterback, he has much more big-game experience than T.J. Yates, who is a fifth-round rookie quarterback thrust into the starting role late in the season due to injuries to Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart. In a tight defensive battle, I'll take the home team with the more experienced quarterback.
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers - The Giants defense didn't allow a point in their 24-2 home destruction of the Falcons, as their defense made it a long day for Matt Ryan and the Falcons' offense. Green Bay will look to continue their near-perfect season with a home playoff win.
The Giants seem to be finding their groove at the right time, as Eli Manning has emerged as a borderline top-five NFL quarterback this season. Aaron Rodgers went from that position a year ago and is now arguably the best quarterback in the game this year. Both teams have receiving tandems that topped 1,000 yards this season: Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz for the Giants, Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson for Green Bay. Here are my three keys to the game:
For New York: Disrupt Rodgers' rhythm. Aaron Rodgers may be the best quarterback in the league this season (though Drew Brees fans could argue that point), but no matter how good a quarterback is, they simply aren't as effective when getting hit. The Giants feature three legitimate pass-rushing threats in Pierre-Paul, Umenyiora and Justin Tuck, as well as a plethora of other solid front seven players capable of getting after the quarterback. For New York, even if they don't get many sacks, they'll need to hit Rodgers and force him to make throws early.
For Green Bay: Win first down defensively. While Manning has produced very well this season, he's at his best on play-action. Green Bay will need to take the Giants' running game out of the equation early, making their offensive attack one-dimensional. If/when that happens, it will allow a Green Bay defense that forces over two turnovers a game to start gambling, something Charles Woodson and the rest of the secondary is VERY good at.
For both teams: Turnover differential. Both teams were in the top ten in turnover differential this season (Packers #2, Giants #8), which means both offenses did a good job of protecting the football. While I don't expect either quarterback to make many mistakes, whichever team does a better job of protecting the football should win this game.
Prediction: Green Bay Packers 34, New York Giants 30. These two teams played down to the wire in their regular season matchup at MetLife Stadium, and I expect another high scoring, nip-and-tuck game. In the end, I just trust Aaron Rodgers a little bit more than Eli Manning at the end of games.
Last Week: 2-2
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