With 30 of the 32 teams draft positions now determined and the early entrant deadline has passed, now is a good time to unveil the second edition of my 2012 Mock Draft.
1. Indianapolis Colts - QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
With longtime franchise cornerstone Peyton Manning's health still in question after missing the entire 2011 season, the odds that owner Jim Irsay will pay Manning his $28 million roster bonus seems more unlikely by the day. After a front office purging that included Bill and Chris Polian, as well as head coach Jim Caldwell, it appears as though the Colts may enter full-fledged rebuilding mode. Luck is as low-risk a quarterback prospect you can possibly hope for, and should be able to start immediately should Manning not return to Indy.
2. St. Louis Rams - OT Matt Kalil, Southern California
The Rams pass protection was simply awful this year, as St. Louis quarterbacks were sacked a league-worst 55 times. 2009 first round pick Jason Smith has not been able to stay healthy, has struggled in pass protection when healthy, and the staff could look at moving him inside to play guard. The team also could use another pass-catching weapon, especially if Brandon Lloyd departs via free agency.
3. Minnesota Vikings - CB Morris Claiborne, LSU
Vikings defenders intercepted just eight passes all season despite having a very good pass rush. Claiborne has very good measureables, as well as fluid hips and solid ball skills that should make him a Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback in a couple of years. My gut tells me that the Vikings trade down from here, but if they do stay, Claiborne should be the pick.
4. Cleveland Browns - RB Trent Richardson, Alabama
Despite more teams employing two-back systems, Richardson is the best running back prospect of the past couple of years. Fast enough to break long runs, Richardson also has solid hands as a receiver, and is very good in pass protection as well. With Peyton Hillis likely done in Cleveland, this pick should be a no-brainer for Mike Holmgren.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - S Mark Barron, Alabama
The Bucs defense was atrocious this past season, and allowed a league-worst 156.1 yards/game on the ground. While Barron may only have average ball skills, he's a physically gifted, well-coached safety that is very strong in run support.
6. Washington Redskins - QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor
Mike Shanahan loves physically gifted quarterbacks, and everyone knows neither Rex Grossman or John Beck are not starting-caliber quarterbacks. The Heisman winner has shown improved mechanics, as well as a strong arm that is capable of throwing with touch when necessary. I'd expect him to start under center in week one.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
Jacksonville averaged a league-worst 136.2 yards per game passing this past season with rookie Blaine Gabbert under center. While Gabbert struggled to make reads and often had to check down due to pressure, he didn't really have a true #1 receiving option. Blackmon likely won't have the eye-popping Combine numbers that Calvin Johnson did, he's a solid route-runner that's physical enough to beat press coverage and is fast enough to be a yards-after-catch monster.
8. Carolina Panthers - OT Riley Reiff, Iowa
The Panthers offense was very good this past season, but undrafted rookie Byron Bell was forced into 12 starts this season at right tackle. While Bell wasn't terrible, Reiff is a safe pick that does a good job of anchoring against the bull rush, and has good footwork in pass protection, as all of Kirk Ferentz's offensive lineman seem to be.
9. Miami Dolphins - OT Jonathan Martin, Stanford
New head coach Joe Philbin comes over from the Packers, and will likely bring both his spread offense and QB Matt Flynn from Green Bay. In order to have success in that offense, they'll need to improve their pass blocking, which yielded 52 sacks this past season. While Martin isn't the most physical blocker in the class, he has good athleticism and footwork, and should make be a solid compliment to Jake Long as bookends on the offensive line.
10. Buffalo Bills - DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina
While there are questions about his motor, nobody doubts his physical skill set. Comparisons to fellow Tar Heel alum Julius Peppers are a bit of a reach, but Coples has prototypical size for a 4-3 defensive end. The Bills totaled just 29 sacks this season, and with new defensive coordinator likely switching to a 4-3 front, Coples (if still on the board) would make sense for Buffalo.
11. Kansas City Chiefs - LB Vontaze Burfict, Arizona State
Burfict shoud help a Chiefs team that was 26th against the run in 2011. A sideline-to-sideline linebacker, Burfict shows great athleticism and good instincts on the field, and plays with a mean streak. If head coach Romeo Crennel can find a way to focus Burfict's aggression (which got him frequently penalized), they could have the best middle-linebacking duo in the league.
12. Seattle Seahawks - DE Nick Perry, Southern California
The Seahawks defense was good in most areas, but were only able to ammass 33 sacks on the season. Perry is a bit small for a defensive end (6'2", 250 lbs), but shows good burst off the line, and uses his hands well to beat blockers, as he led the Pac-12 with 9.5 sacks this past season. He'll be reunited with former coach Pete Carroll in Seattle.
13. Arizona Cardinals - WR Kendall Wright, Baylor
While the Cardinals finished the season strong, their offense still hasn't found a suitable second option to play alongside Larry Fitzgerald. Wright has some DeSean Jackson in him, and while maybe not quite as explosive, Wright is a more polished route-runner, and doesn't have any of the "diva" qualities that have kept Jackson from realizing his full potential.
14. Dallas Cowboys - LB Luke Kuechly, Boston College
With their middle linebackers starting to show their age, Kuechly should be able to come in and start right away. Kuechly has good instincts and athleticism, and while not a great blitzer, is a very sure tackler with top-notch work ethic. Reminds me a little bit of Paul Pozluszny.
15. Philadelphia Eagles - OLB Zach Brown, North Carolina
Linebacker play was the weak link on an otherwise frighteningly talented defense in 2011. Brown is likely going to time as the fastest OLB in this draft, and projects well in the Eagles' "wide 9" defense. While he isn't as physical as fellow prospects Courtney Upshaw and Melvin Ingram, Brown has the frame to put on some bulk.
16. New York Jets - WR Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina
QB Mark Sanchez will be entering his fourth year in the league, and has yet to prove he's capable of being a true franchise signal-caller. Santonio Holmes was a disappointment in both production (654 yards) and as a team captain, and Plaxico Burress is getting long in the tooth (turns 35 in August) despite solid production for someone who hadn't played football in almost three years. Jeffery will remind some of Burress, as he is a solid deep threat, and is physical specimen who should have success beating press coverage.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) - G Cordy Glenn, Georgia
Bobbie Williams will turn 36 next season, and may not return next season. At 6'6", 345 pounds, Glenn is a road-grading type of blocker that should help the Bengals improve upon their 3.9 yard per carry average from 2011.
18. San Diego Chargers - CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
Charger cornerbacks produced fewer interceptions combined (4) than FS Eric Weddle (7). While Quentin Jammer is still a solid cornerback, he didn't produce a single interception this last year, and is 32 years old. Kirkpatrick isn't quite the physical specimen Claiborne is, he has good instincts and is stout against the run as well.
19. Chicago Bears - DE Whitney Mercilus, Illinois
Chicago has a solid defensive tackle rotation, but outside of Julius Peppers, Bears' defensive ends totaled just five sacks. Those were tallied by Israel Idonije, who is 31 and entering free agency. Even if Idonije does return, Mercilus would provide them a solid third defensive end for a team that had just 33 sacks in 2011.
20. Tennessee Titans - DE/LB Melvin Ingram, South Carolina
Ingram largely played outside linebacker in college, but has the size and strength to play end in a 4-3 scheme as well. Ingram is a ferocious pass-rusher, and does a good job anchoring against the run, using his long arms and solid upper body strength to shed blockers. Ingram would provide the Titans with a pass rush that had just 28 sacks.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame
Despite some legitimate concerns about injuries and off-field incidents (arrested three times), Floyd possesses solid physicality and is a mismatch in one-on-one coverage. The Bengals aren't afraid to take a chance on players with questionable character, and with Jerome Simpson facing drug-related charges, Floyd would make a scary wide receiver tandem with A.J. Green.
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta) - DT Devon Still, Penn State
The Browns rush defense was hideous last year, and while they have bulk in the middle, both Ahtyba Rubin and Phil Taylor are bulky defensive tackles that are essentially duplicate players. Still is more of a penetrating tackle than either Taylor or Rubin, and should be able to contribute against both the run and pass.
23. Detroit Lions - Dont'a Hightower, Alabama
Hightower is an instinctive, physical middle linebacking prospect that should help improve a shoddy linebacking corps that couldn't seem to make an open-field tackle for the Lions.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Mike Adams, Ohio State
The Steelers offensive tackle situation has been a mess for a couple of years now. While Adams may not have the upside of guys like Jonathan Martin or Matt Kalil, he should be able to start right away and help keep Ben Roethlisberger upright.
25. Denver Broncos - DT Michael Brockers, LSU
Brockers has positional versatility, as his size and athleticism can have him play anything from a zero (nose) to a five technique. Despite only registering a couple of sacks, Brockers uses his 6'5", 300 pound frame well, and should help shore up a weak interior defensive line in Denver.
26. Houston Texans - CB Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama
The Texans take the best player available here, as Jenkins was a near-lock to be a top ten pick at the end of the 2010 college football season, but was kicked off the Florida Gators for an arrest. Jenkins has the rare combination of athleticism, technique and anticipation that could see him be a steal at this point in the draft.
27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans) - LB/DE Courtney Upshaw, Alabama
Andre Carter (33 in 2012) will hit free agency this year, and landed on injured reserve with what was likely a torn hamstring. Even if he does stay in New England, Bill Belichick likes smart football players, and like most Alabama products, is sound fundamentally. Upshaw is a solid pass-rushing option for the Pats hybrid defensive schemes, and has the ability to play upright or with a hand on the ground.
28. Green Bay Packers - DE Jared Crick, Nebraska
The Packers could also look for a pass rusher, but will likely look to upgrade a defense that allowed 4.7 yards per carry. Crick missed his entire senior season for the Huskers due to injury, but has is stout enough at the point to handle defensive end in Dom Capers' 3-4 defense, and also has some upside as a pass rusher.
29. Baltimore Ravens - C Peter Konz, Nebraska
Matt Birk is likely a lock for the Hall of Fame, but will turn 36 years old before the 2012 season, and will be a free agent. Konz may not compare to Maurkice Pouncey in terms of physical gifts, but had 30 starts for the Badgers, has solid lower body strength, and above average athleticism for a center.
30. San Francisco 49ers - WR Mohamed Sanu, Rutgers
The turnaround in San Francisco was nothing short of miraculous, as Jim Harbaugh created a positive atmosphere in the locker room. The one thing that stood out in their loss to the Giants was the lack of a true threat at wide receiver. Sanu is a very solid run blocker, and has the strength and hands to beat press coverage and make the difficult catch downfield.
31. New York Giants - RB Chris Polk, Washington
The Giants had the worst rushing offense in the league this year, and Brandon Jacobs has started to wear down due to his physical running nature. Polk is a very well-rounded, downhill style running back that could eventually move Ahmad Bradshaw to a third down/change of pace back.
32. New England Patriots - DT Jerel Worthy, Michigan State
Another defensive pick, Worthy is a good compliment to Vince Wilfork in that he's a very solid penetrator that will likely play the three technique for New England when in 4-3 sets, as well as on pass rushing downs.
Round Two
33. St. Louis Rams - LB Ronnell Lewis, Oklahoma
Lewis should help shore up the 31st ranked run defense.
34. Indianapolis Colts - DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State
Cox will help the Colts weak interior line play against the run.
35. Minnesota Vikings - OT Zebrie Sanders, Florida State
Sanders has great size and decent footwork. Should be the starting RT in week one.
36. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - CB Alfonzo Dennard, Nebraska
Dennard should be no worse than the nickel corner until Ronde Barber either leaves via free agency or retires.
37. Cleveland Browns - TE Coby Fleener, Stanford
Fleener gives Colt McCoy a reliable pass catcher that can also stretch the field with seam routes.
38. Jacksonville Jaguars - DE Andre Branch, Clemson
Branch has natural pass-rushing ability, which is one area the Jags defense could really stand to improve
39. Washington Redskins - CB Chase Minnifield, Virginia
Arguably more talented than former UVA teammate Ras-I Dowling (2nd round pick in 2011), and has better instincts.
40. Miami Dolphins - TE Dwayne Allen, Clemson
Solid all-around tight end that is more of a pass catcher than current starter Anthony Fasano.
41. Carolina Panthers - DT Dontari Poe, Memphis
Massive body that will likely be a two-down starter at defensive tackle, though Poe will need to improve questionable conditioning.
42. Buffalo Bills - QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
Tannehill is likely a two-year project, and should be able to learn for a couple of years playing behind Ryan Fitzpatrick.
43. Miami Dolphins - OLB Lavonte David, Nebraska
Shined at the Senior Bowl and showed very well in coverage. With Miami switching to a base four man front, David has the athletic ability to shine on the outside.
44. Seattle Seahawks - QB Brock Osweiler, Arizona State
The Seahawks played well in the second half of the season, even as Tarvaris Jackson battled a shoulder injury. At 6'8, Osweiler is a huge prospect with a strong arm and good mobility for an athlete of his size, but will need to shore up his mechanics, and will likely be at least a one year project.
45. Kansas City Chiefs - RB Bernard Pierce, Temple
It remains to be seen how Jamaal Charles can bounce back from a torn ACL, and Pierce is a physical runner who is a great compliment to a healthy Charles, and could also easily step in as a featured back.
46. Dallas Cowboys - G Brandon Washington, Miami (FL)
Dallas did surrender 39 sacks, and Montrae Holland is probably better suited as a reserve. Washington is a big body that can anchor well against the bull rush.
47. Philadelphia Eagles - G Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin
A very good pass protector that should help keep defenders off of Michael Vick.
48. New York Jets - RB LaMichael James, Oregon
With LaDainian Tomlinson likely to retire, the Jets need a reliable third-down back. James is a home run threat every time he touches the ball, and should flourish in that role for the Jets.
49. New England Patriots (from Oakland) - WR Reuben Randle, LSU
Randle has great size at 6'4, 208 pounds, and would allow Deion Branch to slide to the slot when the Patriots go with three WR sets.
50. San Diego Chargers - DE/OLB Vinny Curry, Marshall
Curry has elite athleticism as a pass rusher, and reminds me a little bit of former Nevada defensive end Dontay Moch.
51. Chicago Bears - G Kelechi Osemele, Iowa State
The Bears offensive line played better as the season progressed, but still alllowed 49 sacks. Osemele is a definite project, as his technique and conditioning need to be improved, but has great size and a massive wingspan that make him a potential stud guard with time.
52. Philadelphia Eagles (from Arizona) - RB Lamar Miller, Miami (FL)
Miller has some questions about durability, but would provide the Eagles with a solid backup behind LeSean McCoy, and is a good value in the second round.
53. Tennessee Titans - OLB Bobby Wagner, Utah State
Measured out well at the Senior Bowl, and could replace Will Witherspoon due to potential salary cap constraints, and would help improve a suspect rush defense.
54. Cincinnati Bengals - DT Brandon Thompson, Clemson
The Bengals add another solid interior pass rusher to pair with Geno Atkins, and will likely be the third defensive tackle behind Atkins and Domata Peko.
55. Detroit Lions - RB David Wilson, Virginia Tech
Jahvid Best's history of concussions is worrisome, and the depth behind him is either old (Maurice Morris) or injury prone (Kevin Smith). Wilson struggled some this season, but presents a good value to a Lions team that struggled to run the ball all season, and could split carries with Mikel Leshoure, provided he returns healthy from injury.
56. Atlanta Falcons - DE Cam Johnson, Virginia
The Falcons need another pass rusher, as John Abraham is getting towards the end of his career. Johnson has enough strength to anchor against the run, and has a decent edge rush.
57. Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Jayron Hosley, Virginia Tech
The Steelers defense was great in almost every category except turnovers forced, where they finished dead last in the regular season. Hosley has great instincts and ball skills, and should help a Steelers secondary that struggled to capitalize on poor throws.
58. Houston Texans - DT Josh Chapman, Alabama
Showed amazing toughness in playing through a torn ACL for most of the season, and should provide depth behind Shaun Cody at nose tackle for the Texans.
59. New Orleans Saints - DE Chandler Jones, Syracuse
Its never good when you're strong safety leads your team in sacks. The pass defense looked bad at times this season (just 9 interceptions), but that can at least in part be attributed to a poor pass rush. Jones should provide Will Smith some help at defensive end.
60. Green Bay Packers - OLB Bruce Irvin, West Virginia
Irvin should bolster a pass rush that took a step back in 2011, as he has a wide array of moves, and enough pop to use the bull rush to counter his speed rush.
61. Baltimore Ravens - FS Markelle Martin, Oklahoma State
Martin is a very good athlete that is strong in run support, though he doesn't possess elite top-end speed, and can be overly-aggressive at times.
62. San Francisco 49ers - DE Billy Winn, Boise State
Winn is stout against the run, and should add depth behind Ray McDonald and Justin Smith as a rotational end in the 49ers' 3-4 alignment.
63. New York Giants - TE Orson Charles, Georgia
Charles is a very good athlete for a tight end, and also has good hands. Drafting Charles will allow the Giants to slide Jake Ballard to #2 on the depth chart.
64. New England Patriots - CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina
The Patriots aren't afraid to make value picks, and Gilmore is a physically gifted corner with the size to match up with some of the more physical receivers in the league.
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