UFC 140 Predictions

My buddy Roarke and I are both very big MMA fans, and always discuss it whenever we are around each other. Starting with UFC 140, we will be making our predictions for all UFC pay-per-views over the next year, with the loser having to buy the winner a pizza. That being said, here are our UFC 140 predictions. In our prediction, one point will be awarded for getting the fighter correct, and one more will be awarded for getting the type of win correct. Here are our picks...

UFC Light Heavyweight Title: Jon Jones (C) vs. Lyoto Machida
Roarke: Jones def. Machida via TKO (Round 3)
Kyle: Machida uses his karate  and his stance keeps him in great position to stuff takedowns. Lyoto is at his best when he can counter-punch and get in and out. Jones, while not necessarily as technically sound as Machida, is able to string combinations together, while also using his ridiculous reach to batter shorter opponents. Jones is also the best wrestler at 205 pounds, and incorporates judo throws and clinch-trips to take the fight to the ground, where he displays vicious ground and pound. I see a somewhat quiet first round, as both fighters try to get a feel for their opponent. Jones should find his groove near the end of the second round, and will retain his title via TKO (strikes) in round three.

Heavyweight Bout: Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Roarke: Noguiera def. Mir via Unanimous decision
Kyle: This is a rematch from UFC 92, where Mir defeated Nogueira via TKO due to strikes in the second round. After the fight, there were rumors that "Big Nog" was fighting a staph infection heading into their bout. Mir will come out to prove the first fight was no fluke, and try to use his improved stand-up and finish the savvy PRIDE veteran. Noguiera is coming off an impressive win over rising heavyweight prospect Brendan Schaub via first round TKO due to strikes at UFC 134: Rio. Noguiera doesn't typically have knockout power in his stand-up, and his head movement (or relative lack thereof) is of concern. Should the fight go to the ground, this fight be a slight edge for Nogueira, who is an ADCC quarterfinalist. I think the fight will be more competitive than the first, where Mir will hurt "Big Nog" but not being able to finish en route to a unanimous decision win.

Light Heavyweight Bout: Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Roarke: Nogueira def. Oritz via Unanimous decision
Kyle: Tito Ortiz has had something of a career resurgence, defeating solid 205 pound prospect Ryan Bader. After rocking Bader with a short hook, Ortiz was able to secure an arm-in guillotine and coax the tapout, saving his career, as UFC president Dana White had said Tito would not have gotten another fight in the organization. Ortiz then stepped in on short notice to fill in for an injured Phil Davis to face Rashad Evans. Through the first round, the fight was even, but Ortiz eventually succumbed to strikes near the end of the second round. Ortiz has decent boxing, but made his name using his wrestling and very good ground-and-pound.
"Little Nog" is not quite as slick at Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu as his older brother, but has much better stand-up, as he took 3rd place at the 2007 Pan-American Games in boxing. Nogueira has struggled some against strong wrestlers, as three of his five career losses are to solid wrestlers. For Nogueira to win, he'll need to use superior footwork to avoid allowing Ortiz to take him down.
I think that both fighters will have their moments, but Ortiz will secure takedowns and do enough on top to pull out a close decision win.

Welterweight Bout: Claude Patrick vs. Brian Ebersole
Roarke: Ebersole def. Patrick via second round submission.
Kyle: Claude Patrick is relatively unknown to most MMA fans, but has a solid submission game (9 of his 14 wins have come via submission), and is 3-0 in the UFC. Ebersole is a true veteran of MMA, having competed in 64 fights, winning 48. Ebersole uses solid wrestling and jiu-jitsu as his base, but doesn't have great hand speed or footwork at welterweight. This fight should be a good litmus test for Patrick, as Ebersole should be a good gatekeeper for up-and-coming welterweights. Patrick may get taken down, but has a more explosive brand of jiu-jitsu, and should win via second round submission via triangle choke.

Featherweight Bout: Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung
Roarke: Hominick def. Jung via unanimous decision
Kyle: Hominick last appeared in the Octagon against featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo, losing a unanimous decision in his home country of Canada. Hominick earned loads of new fans with his performance, as even in defeat overcame Aldo's early onslaught and rallied to nearly finish Aldo in the fifth round, despite having a huge hematoma on his forehead. This will be Hominick's first fight since the passing of his trainer and friend, Shawn Tompkins.
Chan Sung Jung is an exciting fighter with a judo base, but is nicknamed "The Korean Zombie" due to the fact that he seems to keep coming forward and swinging, even after absorbing heavy punishment. Jung was victorious in his last fight, avenging a controversial decision loss to Leonard Garcia, winning by second round submission via twister.
I see this fight being a slugfest, but Hominick is the more technically sound fighter on his feet, and will outland Jung in an exciting back-and-forth fight and take the unanimous decision victory.