Tuesday, November 29, 2011

NFL Power Rankings: Week Thirteen

My power rankings are back following a one-week hiatus, and there has been some significant movement. Below are the full rankings, from 32 to 1.

32. Indianapolis Colts - In what was likely their best chance to get their first win, the Colts could not stop the Carolina offense, and fell at home 27-19. Reports are now saying that the Colts will select Andrew Luck with the number one pick, should they get it (and who really believes that they won't at this point). 30th in scoring offense, 31st in total offense, 32nd in scoring defense, 29th in total defense. Hard to get much worse than that.
31. St. Louis Rams - The Rams again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, dropping a home game to the Kevin Kolb-less Cardinals. Their run defense is abysmal, as they allowed Beanie Wells to run over, around and through them to the tune of 228 yards. The most disappointing part of this team is their lack of punch on offense. For all the hype around the hiring of Josh McDaniels (to which I'd bought into), there is no continuity, and the offensive line has struggled to block anyone.
30. Minnesota Vikings - There have been growing pains for the offense with Christian Ponder at quarterback, as they are 30th in passing, and are really lacking big plays in the passing game. Percy Harvin is more of a yard-after-catch receiver, and the offense really misses Sidney Rice and his ability to stretch defenses. Adrian Peterson has a high ankle sprain, and could miss another game or two.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jacksonville played the Texans tough, but ultimately came up short in their efforts, losing 20-13. There's a saying that "defense wins championships", but when a team only has one weapon on offense (Maurice Jones-Drew), there's only a small chance for success. They have the 32nd ranked scoring, total and pass offense in the league, and switched back to Luke McCown. Playmakers are needed for whoever the coach of the Jaguars is in 2012 (as Jack Del Rio is on his last legs there).

28. Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs let a golden opportunity slip through their hands, as Pittsburgh played sloppy football the entire game, yet Dwayne Bowe's gator-arming of a late fourth-quarter pass from Tyler Palko sealed their fate. This team is now without their best offensive and defensive player, and now with Matt Cassel on injured reserve, this team is going to struggle to score against just about anyone.
27. Tampa Bay Buccanneers - The Bucs gave Tennessee all they could handle, but fell 23-17 to the Titans. The defense has struggled as they've tried to incorporate three rookies (Clayborn, Bowers, Foster), and are ranked among the bottom five in scoring defense, total defense, pass defense and rush defense.
26. Carolina Panthers - If this team were healthy on defense, Carolina could be in the playoff hunt, as their offense has been better than most thought they would. With LBs Jon Beason, Thomas Davis and Thomas Williams, the Panthers have struggled defending the run (28th in the league). Watch out for them in 2012, though.
25. Cleveland Browns - Cleveland gave the Bengals all they could handle before falling 23-20. Peyton Hillis returned, but had a tough time against a strong Cincy run defense (65 yards on 19 carries). The defense still struggled, allowing 389 yards, and the Bengals erased a 17-7 halftime deficit. More playmakers are needed on both sides of the ball to see Cleveland take the next step.
24. Seattle Seahawks - Marshawn Lynch continues to produce, and is likely going to be signed long-term by the Seahawks before the season ends. The defense continues to play solid football, but this team will need a quarterback in the future. Tarvaris Jackson has been average this season, but the high number of quality prospects in the upcoming draft will give Seattle plenty of options, regardless of where they wind up picking.
23. Arizona Cardinals - Patrick Peterson is quickly approaching Devin Hester's status as the best return man in football, as he returned an NFL record-tying fourth punt return for touchdown on the season. If Beanie Wells stays healthy and Kevin Kolb gets healthy, this team could finish the season strong.
22. Washington Redskins - Rex Grossman played solid, and rookie RB Roy Helu hurt Seattle's defense running (23 carries, 108 yards) and receiving (7 catches, 54 yards). The return of Santana Moss will no doubt help the 'Skins, as it will take some of the focus off emerging TE Fred Davis.
21. Miami Dolphins - While they won't be making the playoffs this year, this team sure has played good football the past six weeks, with their three losses (Broncos, Giants, Cowboys) came by a total of seven points. While it may be too late, this team seems like one trying to save head coach Tony Sparano's job.
20. San Diego Chargers - This team hasn't won a game since October 9th, dropping six in a row. Philip Rivers has continued to struggle, though he didnt' commit a turnover in the 16-13 home loss to Denver. With the playoffs now likely an afterthought, the players on this team need to play for their jobs, as both G.M. A.J. Smith and Norv Turner will both likely be gone at season's end, if not sooner.
19. Philadelphia Eagles - After a big win against the Giants, the Eagles followed that up by breaking out to a 10-0 first quarter lead on the Patriots. It was all downhill from there, as the Patriots and Tom Brady picked apart the Eagles in a 38-20 drubbing. DeSean Jackson has been a huge disappointment, and the more he drops passes and misses meetings, the more likely it is that the Eagles will be less inclined to give him a new contract.
18. Buffalo Bills - The Bills played their best football in the past four games, but still came up short against the Jets 28-24. Ryan Fitzpatrick showed why the Bills gave him a lucrative extension, throwing for 264 yards and three touchdowns against the very tough Jets cornerbacks. The Bills desperately need a pass rusher, as they allowed Mark Sanchez oodles of time to throw his four touchdowns, including the game winner with 1:01 left. Were it not for a silly sequence of events near the end of the first half (Stevie Johnson's TD celebration that deservedly drew a 15-yard penalty, Dave Rayner slipping on the ensuing kickoff, giving the Jets the ball inside the Bills 40 with two minutes left), the Bills would likely have had a seven point halftime lead, and getting the ball to start the second half.
17. Tennessee Titans - Chris Johnson ran all over the Bucs defense, topping 190 yards, as the Titans held off the game Bucs 23-17. The Titans continue to quietly hang around in the AFC playoff race. With the Texans likely now without Matt Leinart for the rest of the year, the Titans could still sneak into the playoffs should Houston falter. Their match-up with Buffalo this week will be huge for their playoff chances.
16. New York Giants - A team that was in my top five a few weeks ago, the Giants have now lost two straight games, including their 49-28 drubbing in New Orleans. Now 6-5, New York has got to find a way to establish the run, as Brandon Jacobs has struggled to find room to run the ball (32nd in the league), or else they'll again fail to reach the playoffs.
15. New York Jets - Despite a late drive to clinch their 28-24 win against the Bills, the pass defense again looked pedestrian, as even Darrelle Revis struggled against Buffalo WR Stevie Johnson (8 catches, 75 yards and a touchdown against the all world cornerback). Their remaining five games feature four sub-.500 teams, with their only game against winning competition being their Christmas Eve home game against stadium-mates the Giants.
14. Denver Broncos - Tebow and the Broncos continue to linger just one game back of the division-leading Raiders, as they again came from behind to beat the Chargers in San Diego 16-13 in overtime. With Tebow at quarterback, the Broncos are running for nearly 200 yards per game on the ground, and the defense has also played better. While Tebow may never be an elite passer, there's little doubt that he's a heck of a football player, and inspires his teammates and fans.
13. Detroit Lions - The Lions lost their Thanksgiving Day game against the Packers, and have now lost DT Ndamukong Suh for the next two games due to his latest egregious act, repeatedly slamming a Packers offensive lineman's head to the ground, then on his way out, stomping on the lineman's arm. The Lions are clinging to the sixth spot in the NFC, but will likely do no better than a split of their two games without Suh (at New Orleans, home vs Minnesota).
12. Chicago Bears - The Bears dropped their road game to the Raiders this past week, and Caleb Hanie struggled replacing the injured Jay Cutler, throwing three interceptions. If Hanie can't do a better job of protecting the football, Chicago will find themselves as spectators come playoff time.
11. Oakland Raiders - The Raiders continue to "Just win, baby", rattling off their third straight win. The Carson Palmer trade has continued to reap benefits, but this team would really like to have injured running back Darren McFadden back, as he's still nursing a foot injury. Their schedule the next three weeks (at Miami, at Green Bay, vs. Detroit) are huge for this team, as they will realistically need to win two of those games to keep the surging Broncos at bay.
10. Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals looked less than stellar against the Browns this past week, but still came away with the win. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green continue their solid rookie seasons, and so long as owner Mike Brown doesn't screw this thing up, the Bengals appear to be on the verge of being perennial playoff contenders.
9. Dallas Cowboys - The 'Boys narrowly escaped with a 20-19 home win against the Dolphins on Thanksgiving. Dallas may have found yet another receiving weapon in former journeyman WR Laurent Robinson. In the nine games he's played in this year, Robinson has 38 catches for 554 yards, and has caught seven touchdowns in the past five weeks. This team seems to be peaking at the right time, and with the Giants starting to slip, the Cowboys appear poised to make some noise in the postseason.
8. Houston Texans - Houston was able to beat the Jaguars 20-13 at Reliant Stadium, but now appear to be without Matt Leinart for the rest of the season from a separated shoulder. T.J. Yates will now be the Texans starter the rest of the year, and will still have a two-game cushion on the Titans with five games to play. Look for the Texans to again lean heavily on their running game, which is third in the NFL, averaging 151.7 yards per game.
7. Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons are playing good football right now, and their passing game has looked especially solid in the past six games, as the Falcons are 5-1 in that time frame, and QB Matt Ryan has thrown for 264.2 yards per game, with 11 touchdowns to only four interceptions. If the Falcons can continue to have a balanced attack on offense, there's every reason to believe this team will reach the postseason.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers - Despite playing uninspired football at Kansas City, the Steelers were still able to escape with a 13-9 road victory over the Chiefs. The health of Troy Polamalu is a concern, as he left in the first half of the game with a likely concussion, and will be monitored before their home game against the Bengals, which has huge playoff implications.
5. New England Patriots - The Patriots continue their late season surge, notching a 38-20 road win over the Eagles. Tom Brady picked apart the heralded Eagles secondary, throwing for 361 yards and three touchdowns. With the toughest games remaining on the schedule are at 6-5 Denver and a week 17 home game against the 5-6 Bills, the Pats seem like a lock to clinch the AFC East, and have a very good chance at wrapping up homefield throughout the playoffs.
4. San Francisco 49ers - Baltimore absolutely shut down the 49ers offense, but despite an anemic offensive effort, there's still some positives to take away from their 16-6 loss. The defense continued to play well, holding Baltimore to 253 yards of offense, and the offense did have a long touchdown bomb to Ted Ginn (which did get called back because of a hold). Ultimately, this team is better than it played on Thanksgiving, and will be a tough out for any team they play in the postseason.
3. Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens won the first ever "Harbaugh Bowl" by shutting down the 49ers power running game and sacking QB Alex Smith nine times in their 16-6 win. If this team can play as well on the road as they do at home, they could also make a strong push (along with the Pats) for the #1 seed in the AFC.
2. New Orleans Saints - Outside of the Packers, perhaps no team is playing as good of football as the Saints, who picked apart the Giants 49-24. Drew Brees is on pace to break Dan Marino's single season passing yardage record, and are also first in the NFL in total offense (449.6) and second to the Packers in scoring offense (32.9). While they won't catch the Packers for the NFC's #1 seed, the Saints should finish no worse than 12-4.
1. Green Bay Packers - A consistent lock for the #1 start since I started my power rankings, the Packers have done nothing to diminish my high regard for this team. Aaron Rodgers continues to play filthy-good football (33 TD, 4 INT), and Jordy Nelson has emerged as a legitimate #2 opposite Greg Jennings. Unless Rodgers gets hurt, I find it hard to see this team dropping a regular season game.

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