Monday, November 7, 2011

Mid-Season Pro Bowl Predictions: AFC

With the season at its midway point, who would have thought that Bills RB Fred Jackson would be the AFC's leading rusher? Or that Philip Rivers would have thrown three more interceptions (14) than touchdowns (11)? This season has had its share of surprising performances, and as we've reached the halfway point, here's how I voted for AFC Pro Bowlers.

Quarterbacks (3):
Tom Brady, New England; Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh; Matt Schaub, Houston
Explanation: Brady and Roethlisberger are the top two in the AFC in quarterback rating, and are proven talents. I took Schaub over Ryan Fitzpatrick from Buffalo due to the fact that Schaub hasn't had Andre Johnson the past five games, yet still has a slightly higher rating than Fitzpatrick, and his Texans are 6-3.
Honorable Mention: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo; Matt Hasselbeck, Tennessee; Andy Dalton, Cincinnati


Running Backs (3):
Fred Jackson, Buffalo; Arian Foster, Houston; Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville
Explanation: Fred Jackson leads the AFC in rushing through the first half of the season in the AFC, and also has 30 catches for 391 yards. Arian Foster played only two quarters in his teams first three games, yet is still at 656 yards and 5 touchdowns. MJD got the nod because despite defenses keying in almost entirely on the run against the Jags, he's still run for 740 yards.
Honorable Mention: Darren McFadden, Oakland; Ray Rice, Baltimore; Ben Tate, Houston

Wide Receivers (4):Wes Welker, New England; Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh; AJ Green, Cincinnati; Vincent Jackson, San Diego
Explanation: Welker leads the NFL in receptions (66) and yards (960). Mike Wallace is the best deep threat in the league (868 yards, 6 TD, 18.4 yards/catch). AJ Green is quickly becoming one of the best receivers in the league as a rookie (40 catches, 599 yards, 5 TD). Vincent Jackson got my vote because of his deep ball skills and ability to go over the middle as well (616 yards, 6 TD, 18.0 yards/catch).
Honorable Mention: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City; Anquan Boldin, Baltimore, Brandon Marshall, Miami; Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis

Fullback (1);James Casey, Houston
Explanation: Casey got my vote over Vonta Leach (Baltimore) largely because of the fact that no matter who the running back has been for Houston, they've been able to be productive. He won't necessarily blow opposing defenders out of the water, but does a good job of sealing off, allowing the zone-running, one-cut running attack of head coach Gary Kubiak to be extra effective. Two of the top five rushers in the AFC are his teammates (Arian Foster, Ben Tate).
Honorable Mention: Vonta Leach, Baltimore

Tight End (2):Owen Daniels, Houston; Rob Gronkowski, New England
Explanation: Gronkowski has been phenomenal this year, using his big body and hands well (596 yards, 6 TD). "Gronk" also is a fluid route runner and is depectively athletic for his size (6'6", 265). Daniels is back healthy after a couple of injury plagued seasons, and has reprised his role as Matt Schaub's safety valve over the middle in Houston's offense (447 yards, 3 TD).
Honorable Mention: Aaron Hernandez, New England; Heath Miller, Pittsburgh

Offensive Tackles (3):Jake Long, Miami; Joe Thomas, Cleveland; Andrew Whitworth, Cincinnati
Explanation: With these three, they are all blindside protectors who are able to do a great job in both pass protection, as well as the running game.
Honorable Mention: Michael Roos, Tennessee; D'Brickashaw Ferguson, New York

Offensive Guards (3):Andy Levitre, Buffalo; Logan Mankins, New England; Marshall Yanda, Baltimore
Explanation: Levitre has consistently graded out well for the Bills, who have only allowed 10 sacks this season. Mankins is a stout guard who plays with a mean streak. Yanda is somewhat under the radar, but he is a road-grading guard that might just be Baltimore's best and most consistent lineman.
Honorable Mention: Jake Scott, Tennessee; Stefen Wisniewski, Oakland

Center (2):Nick Mangold, New York; Maurkice Pouncey, Pittsburgh
Explanation: For anyone who doesn't believe Mangold is the best center in the game, watch some film of their games without him, and see how poor the blocking was up front. Pouncey is possibly the most athletic
center in the league, and consistently gets to the second level.
Honorable Mention: Matt Birk, Baltimore

Defensive Ends (3):Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis; Brett Keisel, Pittsburgh; Marcell Dareus, Buffalo
Explanation: With the amount of teams in the AFC that run either a 3-4 or a hybrid defense, there aren't going to be many guys that rush the passer that well. Freeney still has 4.5 sacks, despite playing for a Colts team that has been trailing so much that Freeney's opportunities at sacks are limited. Keisel is a great 3-4 end in that he can take on blockers, as well as penetrate and harass quarterbacks. Dareus has played at nose tackle the past two games (filling in for Kyle Williams), and the Bills surrendered only 154 total yards on the ground in those contests. Despite his size, Dareus still can penetrate (3.5 sacks).
Honorable Mention: Robert Mathis, Indianapolis; Antonio Smith, Houston

Defensive Tackles (3):Haloti Ngata, Baltimore; Richard Seymour, Oakland; Geno Atkins, Cincinnati
Explanation: Ngata is able to consistently occupy two blockers, which frees up Ray Lewis to make plays. Seymour is an excellent pash rushing defensive tackle that uses an array of moves to shoot gaps. Atkins consistently uses his athleticism to clog running lanes and rush the passer.
Honorable Mention: Sione Pouha, New York; Vince Wilfork, New England

Inside Linebackers (2):Ray Lewis, Baltimore; Bart Scott, New York
Explanation: Despite being in his mid-30's, Lewis is still among the best tacklers in the NFL, and plays instinctive football. Scott is one of the leaders of the Jets defense, and is an extention of head coach Rex Ryan when on the field.
Honorable Mention: Nick Barnett, Buffalo; James Farrior, Pittsburgh

Outside Linebackers (3):LaMarr Woodley, Pittsburgh; Tamba Hali, Kansas City; Terrell Suggs, Baltimore
Explanation: All three are excellent pash rushers, but both Suggs and Woodley are solid against the run as well. There are so many quality outside linebackers in the AFC that this was the toughest category to decide who was most worthy.
Honorable Mention: Cameron Wake, Miami; James Harrison, Pittsburgh; Von Miller, Denver

Cornerbacks (3):Brandon Flowers, Kansas City; Darrelle Revis, New York; Jonathan Joseph, Houston
Explanation: Its hard to leave out the league leader in interceptions, but the fact is that Kyle Arrington of the Pats just gives up too many big plays. Flowers, Revis and Joseph all are capable of playing solid zone coverage, but are best at shutting down the opposing teams top receiver.
Honorable Mention: Leon Hall, Cincinnati; Kyle Arrington, New England; Stanford Routt, Oakland

Strong Safety (1):Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh
Explanation: Though he hasn't made as many big plays in years past, he's still the most instinctive safety in the NFL.
Honorable Mention: George Wilson, Buffalo

Free Safety (1):Ed Reed, Baltimore
Explanation: A lot of strong candidates here, Reed wins out in large part due to his body of work, as well as very good production again this year.
Honorable Mention: Eric Weddle, San Diego; Jarius Byrd, Buffalo

Kicker (1):Sebastian Janikowski, Oakland
Explanation: Janikowski's inconsistency is a thing of the past, as he's 13 of 14 on field goals this year, including making an NFL record-tying 63 yard field goal.
Honorable Mention: Mike Nugent, Cincinnati; Neil Rackers, Houston

Punter (1): Brian Moorman, Buffalo
Explanation: I gave Moorman the edge due to the fact that he kicks in consistently windy weather in Buffalo.
Honorable Mention: Britton Colquitt, Denver; Shane Lechler, Oakland

Kick Returner (1):Brandon Tate, Cincinnati
Explanation: Tate has been averaging 24 yards per kick return and over 10 yards per punt return, including a touchdown against Seattle in week eight.
Honorable Mention: Joshua Cribbs, Cleveland

Special Teamer (1):Kassim Osgood, Jacksonville
Explanation: Osgood is a premier gunner on punt returns, and covers kickoffs very well. Just about everyone listed does a great job.

Breakdown By Team:
Bengals: 4
Bills: 4
Broncos: 0
Browns: 1
Chargers: 1
Chiefs: 2
Colts: 1
Dolphins: 1
Jaguars: 2
Jets: 3
Patriots: 4
Raiders: 2
Ravens: 5
Steelers: 6
Texans: 5
Titans: 0

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