With the season one-fourth over, I thought it'd be a good time to do some research on the teams that might finish the season towards the bottom of the standings. I have five teams here that are either 1-3 or 0-4 that will probably: a) finish under six wins, and; b) at least contemplate drafting Andrew Luck.
Indianapolis Colts - Without Peyton Manning, this team can't utilize their biggest strengths (great receivers, pass rush). This defense is not one that's built to stop the run, and without Manning racking up points, there will be less opportunity for Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Should Peyton not be able to return following three neck procedures in the past 18 months, then they'll no doubt need to look for a new franchise quarterback. Luck has top notch instincts and feel for the game, as well as uncanny accuracy and mobility both inside the pocket and out, which would probably be necessary as the Colts offensive line isn't great either.
Reason they could draft first: No Peyton Manning will definitely hurt, as neither Curtis Painter or Kerry Collins are really starting caliber NFL quarterbacks. The division could be construed as down, though I'd argue its more balanced than lacking talent.
Remaining Schedule -
Home: Chiefs, Falcons, Jaguars, Panthers, Titans, Texans
Away: Buccaneers, Bengals, Saints, Titans, Patriots, Ravens, Jaguars
Projected Record: 4-12. The Colts will be out of the playoff picture by week 10, so don't expect Peyton to play in 2011.
Miami Dolphins - Chad Henne has shown flashes of brilliance, then promptly follows that up with head-scratching mistakes that a third-year pro shouldn't be making. They have some weapons in RB's Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas, a top-15 receiver in Brandon Marshall and possession specialist Davone Bess, so should the Dolphins continue to struggle, this would be another place where Luck would have an early chance to succeed.Reason they could draft first: A tough division and inconsistent quarterback play will likely be Tony Sparano's last in South Beach.
Remaining Schedule -
Home: Broncos, Redskins, Bills, Raiders, Eagles, Jets
Away: Jets, Giants, Chiefs, Cowboys, Bills, Patriots
Projected Record: 4-12. This team has been in every game going into the fourth quarter this year, and if Daniel Thomas can stay healthy, the 'Fins can get back to their bread and butter: The power-running game.
Kansas City Chiefs - Matt Cassel has not performed at his 2010 level (3,116 yards, 27 TD, 7 INT) so far this year. Losing Tony Moeaki to IR before the season opener and Jamaal Charles in Week Two doesn't help, as Thomas Jones is not the runner he was in 2009, and the departure of former All-Pro offensive lineman Brian Waters also has made it tough on Cassel. The defense does have some talent in pass-rusher Tamba Hali, but is sorely missing playmaking second-year safety Eric Berry (lost to a torn ACL in their week one loss). Dwayne Bowe is a talented receiver, and Steve Breaston is a reliable pass catcher as well, so there's talent here as well. A coaching change could take place after this year, as head coach Todd Haley has a reputation as a hard person to deal with (firing former offensive coordinator Chan Gailey the week before the start of the '09 season, Charlie Weis leaving the team after last year to take the same position with the University of Florida), and if the Chiefs can't turn their season around, a new regime would probably jump at the chance for a rare NFL ready quarterback with all the intangibles.
Reason they could draft first: The loss of arguably their two best players to injury (Charles and Berry), a difficult schedule thanks to their division crown last year, as well as spotty play by Matt Cassel.Remaining Schedule -
Home: Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos, Steelers, Packers, Raiders
Away: Colts, Raiders, Patriots, Bears, Jets, Broncos
Projected record: 4-12. A tough schedule thanks to their AFC West crown from last year is going to make this a long season for Chiefs fans.
Minnesota Vikings - We could be seeing another pre-mature end to the Donovan McNabb era, who is now on his third team since 2009. The Vikings are much better than their 0-4 record, even if there's only a few people that are playing like they should. Minnesota did take Florida State QB Christian Ponder with the 12th overall pick (definitely a reach for a player that couldn't stay healthy and has average physical tools), but I doubt that would stop them from drafting a can't-miss prospect like Luck. Quarterback play has been this teams' Achilles' heel the last couple of years. RB Adrian Peterson, WR Percy Harvin and young TE Kyle Rudolph provide enough offensive weapons for Luck to find success early in Minnesota.
Reason they could draft first: A tough division with the two NFC Championship game teams from last year (Packers and Bears), as well as a red-hot Lions team. McNabb's wildly inconsistent quarterback play. Second half play-calling.
Remaining Schedule -
Home: Cardinals, Packers, Raiders, Broncos, Saints, Bears.
Away: Bears, Panthers, Packers, Falcons, Lions, Redskins.
Projected Record: 5-11. This team held a lead at half of their first three games, including 20-0 over the Lions before melting down in all three. Barring a major injury to Adrian Peterson or Percy Harvin, there's enough talent to avoid ending up picking first.
Seattle Seahawks - Tarvaris Jackson hasn't been terrible this year, and the Seahawks have been very competitive in three of their first four games. However, I doubt many in the organization believe Jackson is much more than a capable backup. Free agent addition Sidney Rice is now healthy and they also have fellow additions in TE Zach Miller (Oakland) and undrafted rookie WR Doug Baldwin (Stanford) that can help. If their young, big offensive line (averaging about 6'5, 320 pounds) can gel quickly, then the 'Hawks running game could get on track (currently 31st in the league, 67.5 yards/game).
Reason they could draft first: Young offensive line. Inconsistent play at QB. Defense that can't get to the quarterback (1.25 sacks/game).
Remaining Schedule -
Home: Bengals, Ravens, Redskins, Eagles, Rams, 49ers.
Away: Giants, Bears, Cowboys, Rams, Bears, Cardinals.
Projected Record: 4-12. Like the Chiefs, playing a first place schedule is going to make it very hard for the Seahawks to hit .500 this year, let alone repeat as NFC West champions in 2011. There is talent here, but until their defense can make plays or their offensive line can gel, it'll be hard to win games.
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